2026 NFL Rookies Most Likely to Become Rookie of the Year: An early summer forecast from a galaxy not so far away

By Ha Kung Wong

X: @FBGarbageTime

Did I go watch “The Mandolorian and Grogu” on opening night? Of course I did. I have never missed an opening night of any Star Wars film ever, and I wasn’t going to start now, regardless of what the critics told me. That being said, as excited as I was after watching the preview on Disney+ half a dozen times, the movie really wasn’t awesome. Don’t get me wrong, it also wasn’t terrible, but that preview might have been 5 of the best 10 minutes in the entire movie.

The NFL preseason is the same way, particularly when it comes to rookies. Everyone looks fast in robes, nobody is getting hit by a Wookiee yet, and every rookie who makes one impressive play immediately gets compared to a young Obi-Wan. Still, even in shorts and helmets, early practices can tell us a lot. Coaches reveal who they tend to trust, rookies show how quickly they are absorbing the playbook, and depth charts begin to form.

So with the usual disclaimers — no pads, no real tackling, and absolutely no guarantee that June optimism survives first contact with Aaron Donald — here are five rookies that we think have the clearest path to becoming the top rookie of the 2026 NFL season.

1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Jeremiyah Love enters the league with the kind of opportunity that makes Rookie of the Year voters start polishing the trophy early. The Cardinals spent premium draft capital on him, and Arizona does not appear to be treating him like a background extra in the Mos Eisley cantina. He is expected to be a major part of the offense right away.

For a running back, that matters. Rookie backs do not need a five-year Jedi apprenticeship. They need touches, space, and an offensive coordinator willing to say, “Use the Force,” then hand them the ball 18 times. The Cardinals have moved on from Michael Carter, Emari Demercado and Kylar Murray, who in total were responsible for just over 50% of the Cardinals’ total rush yards in 2025. And Carter and Demercado were responsible for 427 RB receiving yards last season. That’s a lot of touches up for grabs. Love has the burst, contact balance, and big-play potential to turn ordinary runs into highlight clips. If Arizona also uses him in the passing game or return game, his weekly stat line could start looking like someone accidentally turned on franchise mode.

The OTA buzz has also been encouraging. Reports out of Arizona suggest he is picking things up quickly, and the Cardinals are already experimenting with ways to get him involved. That is exactly what you want to hear in June. Not “he has a lot to learn,” not “he is adjusting to the speed of the game,” but “we are already looking for more ways to give him the football.” Unfortunately, it’ll take more than just good vibes to get Love to RB1. James Conner is still there, and although everyone thinks he’ll be traded, if he stays, he’s certainly still a threat to steal touches. And Tyler Allgeier being signed in the offseason means he’ll at least get some run this season. That being said, Love didn’t drafted in the first round to ride the pine.

Why he could win Rookie of the Year: Love has the cleanest path to volume. If he becomes Arizona’s offensive centerpiece, he could rack up yards, touchdowns, receptions, and enough explosive plays to make voters feel like they are watching a speeder bike chase through Endor.

2. Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans

Carnell Tate may have the best receiver opportunity in the class. Tennessee drafted him to be a major weapon for Cam Ward, and the Titans’ receiver room gives Tate a real chance to become the No. 1 option sooner rather than later.

That is the key. Calvin Ridley is still there, returning from a fibula injury, and the Titans did sign Wan’Dale Robinson in the off season, but neither have the upside of Tate. Some rookie receivers land in crowded offenses and spend their first season waiting for targets like stormtroopers waiting to hit something. Tate, by contrast, has a path to immediate relevance. Tennessee needs a primary target, Ward needs a reliable young weapon, and Tate has the size, ball skills, and downfield ability to become the kind of receiver quarterbacks look for when the pocket starts collapsing and the internal monologue becomes, “Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi.” Even without the opportunity for touches, Tate was really efficient in his last season at Ohio State, having the 3rd most receiving yards per reception among all receivers in the Big Ten.

His OTA production is a meaningful early sign. Tate reportedly caught a healthy number of passes during open practices, which suggests he is already developing timing and trust in the offense. In June, that does not guarantee stardom. But it does suggest he is not buried on the depth chart or wandering around the facility like C-3PO trying to understand a blitz pickup.

Why he could win Rookie of the Year: If Tate becomes Ward’s favorite target, he could lead the Titans in receptions, yards, or touchdowns. Rookie receivers win awards when opportunity and chemistry arrive at the same time. Tate has a chance to be Tennessee’s young Rebel pilot who blows up defensive coverage before anyone realizes he is already locked in.

3. David Bailey, Edge, New York Jets

David Bailey is the top defensive rookie candidate because his award case is easy to understand: sacks. Lots of them. Preferably loud ones. The kind where the quarterback gets up looking like he just saw Darth Vader walk through the smoke.

Bailey was a dominant college pass rusher, and the Jets drafted him to affect the quarterback immediately. Defensive Rookie of the Year voters love edge rushers because the numbers are simple. Tackles can be overlooked. Coverage can be hard to judge. But sacks? Sacks are lightsabers. Everyone sees them.

The Jets also offer him a strong platform. If he earns a regular role early, Bailey can make a weekly impact without needing the entire defense built around him. He does not need to become the Emperor by Week 3. He just needs to win one-on-one matchups, create pressure, and turn third-and-8 into panic hour.

Early comments from the Jets have highlighted his quickness and edge ability, which is exactly the kind of skill that translates quickly. Pass rushers still need technique, counters, and discipline, but raw explosion can get them into the backfield before a tackle finishes saying, “I have a bad feeling about this.”

Why he could win Rookie of the Year: Bailey has the clearest defensive stat path. If he reaches double-digit sacks, he may become the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite almost automatically. In a league obsessed with quarterbacks, the rookie who hunts them best always gets attention.

4. Arvell Reese, LB, New York Giants

Arvell Reese is the versatile defender of this group — part linebacker, part edge rusher, part sideline-to-sideline chaos merchant. He is the kind of player who could fill a box score in several categories, which makes him dangerous in an awards race.

Think of him as the Mace Windu of rookie defenders: not always the first name mentioned by casual fans, but capable of walking into the middle of the action and immediately making everyone uncomfortable.

Reese’s appeal is that he can affect the game in multiple ways. He can blitz. He can run. He can cover. He can chase plays from the backside. If the Giants deploy him creatively, he could produce sacks, tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, and the occasional play where the broadcast booth pauses and says, “That was a rookie?”

The OTA reports have been positive, especially regarding how quickly he is processing the defense. That matters for linebackers more than almost any other position. A rookie receiver can run fast and learn the rest later. A rookie linebacker who does not know where to line up can turn a defense into a Death Star exhaust port: one obvious weakness and suddenly everything is exploding.

Why he could win Rookie of the Year: Reese has the most complete defensive résumé if the Giants give him a full-time role. He may not have Bailey’s pure sack upside, but he could stuff the stat sheet across every category. If he becomes the Giants’ defensive tone-setter early, he will be hard to ignore.

5. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Fernando Mendoza is the great wildcard. Quarterbacks are always the most powerful beings in the Rookie of the Year galaxy. They are also the most unpredictable. One minute they are Luke staring at two suns, dreaming of greatness. The next minute they are running for their lives because an unblocked edge rusher has entered hyperspace.

Mendoza has the draft status, talent, and narrative power to leapfrog everyone on this list. Remember that not only did he lead Indiana to win the National Championship Game last season, but he also had the most passing yards per attempt (9.3), most passing touchdowns (41), and best passing efficiency rating (182.9) of all quarterbacks in college football. If he starts early and plays well, he will immediately become one of the biggest stories of the season. Rookie quarterbacks do not need to be perfect to get awards attention. They need to look promising, win some games, and produce enough “franchise quarterback” moments to make fans start building statues out of hope and dangerous expectations.

The opportunity question is the issue. If Mendoza spends too much of the season behind Kirk Cousins, his Rookie of the Year campaign may never fully launch. Remember that Cousins was signed to an $11.3 million, fully guaranteed, one-year contract. That’s something the Raiders don’t do if they don’t intend to start Cousins and give Mendoza some time to learn. Awards are about production, and production requires playing time. Yoda could have all the wisdom in the universe, but he is not winning Offensive Rookie of the Year from the sideline.

Still, the OTA signs matter. Any first-team reps, even in spring, suggest the Raiders are at least preparing him for the possibility of action. That does not mean he will start Week 1. But it does mean the door is not sealed shut like a trash compactor on the detention level.

Why he could win Rookie of the Year: If Mendoza starts early and looks competent, he could become the favorite quickly. Quarterback gravity is real. A solid rookie QB season can overshadow great seasons from running backs and receivers because voters tend to treat quarterbacks like Jedi Council members and everyone else like very talented droids.

Final prediction

The safest pick is Jeremiyah Love. Running backs can make immediate impacts, and Love has the best mix of talent, opportunity, and likely touches. He does not need everything around him to be perfect. He just needs the ball and a little daylight.

Carnell Tate is the strongest offensive challenger if he becomes Tennessee’s top receiver. David Bailey has the cleanest Defensive Rookie of the Year path because sacks are the NFL’s version of blowing up the Death Star: simple, dramatic, and easy to replay. Arvell Reese could become the do-everything defender who rises as the season goes on. Fernando Mendoza is the high-ceiling quarterback candidate who could take over the conversation if he gets the starting job early.

Early summer prediction: Jeremiyah Love wins 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year.

The Force is strong with him — and more importantly, so is the projected workload.