NFL AFC Conference Championship Preview & Prediction
By Ha Kung Wong
Twitter: @FBGarbageTime
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Sunday – 3:05 PM ET
New England is favored by 3
The Patriots beat the Chiefs by only one score in the Divisional Round, but don’t let the score fool you. The Patriots were in control of this game from the beginning and never gave up the lead. And they did it in exactly the way we all expected – through the air against a tough Chiefs defense. Because if there’s one thing we’ve all learned over the years, love them or hate them, the Patriots pass offense is as consistent as they come, and Bill Belichick is one of the best game planners against tough defenses. And their reward for beating one tough defense is facing another tough pass defense, this time on the road.
The Broncos also won they’re Division Round matchup against the Steelers, but this game was a much different story. This game had lead changes almost every quarter, and it took a late TD drive by the Broncos off a Fitzgerald Toussaint fumble to win the game. Peyton Manning returned under center, and will face Tom Brady for the fifth time in the postseason.
And here we are, with the 2 seed Pats traveling to meet the 1 seed Broncos. Good news for Brady? Or a possible celebratory swan song for Manning?
Keys for the Patriots
This game is about one thing, and basically one thing only. And that’s whether the Denver Broncos defense can stop Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, in that order. There’s no real weakness in the Broncos defense, as they’re as impressive against the pass (LEAST passing yards allowed per game (200.0), least yards per attempt (6.2), and most total sacks (52) this season) as they are against the run (3rd least rushing yards allowed per game (83.6) and least rushing yards per attempt (3.3)). I don’t anticipate Belichick game planning for the ground with the likes of Steven Jackson, James White and Brandon Bolden in the backfield (particularly since even with their star players healthy they had the 3rd least rushing yards per game (87.8) this season), so I think we’re going to see a lot of Brady challenging the secondary.
Rob Gronkowski
Not only were the Pats terrific in the air over the season (Tied for 4th most passing yards per game (287.0), Tied for 1st in total passing TDs (36), Tied for Least number of INTs (7)), but they also not have a mostly healthy Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman back. People were concerned about Gronks back issues that appeared to pop up over the bye week, but he put all those concerns to bed with his performance against the Chiefs (7 receptions for 83 yards and 2 TDs). And Edelman basically picked up where he left off snagging 10 of 16 targets for 100 yards. Honestly, there may not be a defense in the NFL that consistently contain them. One or two drives, maybe, but not for the entire game.
Keys for the Broncos
We’ve really already talked about the key for the Broncos, which is their defense has to play lights out to give them a chance. But perhaps just as important is making sure the offense doesn’t sputter too badly.
Last weekend, the Broncos were barely able to move the ball on the Steelers, who allowed the 3rd most passing yards of any team in the NFL this season. So you can imagine that it will be even more challenged against the Patriots, who have the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this year during the regular season (49).
Peyton Manning
As I mentioned last week, Denver’s offense is not particularly good. They had the 14th most passing yards per game (248), 5th least passing TDs (19) and most INTs in the league (23) during the regular season. But although they had the 16th least rushing yards per game (107.4) behind an underperforming CJ Anderson and inconsistent Ronnie Hillman, they were at least tied for 11th most yards per rush (4.2), so there is a little hope. Unfortunately, the Patriots allowed the 9th least rushing yards allowed per game (98.8) during the regular season.
Against the Steelers, Peyton Manning had a QBR of 35.9, only completing 21 of 37 passes for just 222 empty yards. But importantly, he didn’t throw any INTs and no one on the Denver offense lost a fumble. If the Broncos want any hope winning this game, the offense will have to keep Brady off the field as much as possible while not turning the ball over.
Prediction
Football Outsiders has the Patriots ranked 6th in overall DVOA, and have the Broncos at 8th. I have my doubts that the Broncos will be able to completely contain Brady, I’m picking the Pats to win a close one.
New England Patriots 27 – Denver Broncos 24