FGT 2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft – Rounds 3 & 4
By the Football Garbage Time Staff
Well, we gave you Rounds 1 and 2 of the Football Garbage Time Fantasy Football Mock Draft, and we’re now back for Rounds 3 and 4! You didn’t think we’d leave you hangin’, did you?
As a reminder, we conducted a live Fantasy Football Mock Draft on Twitter (just check out #FGTMockDraft) for a mock PPR standard scoring Yahoo 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K & 1 DEF with standard scoring) so that all of you can get some insight as to who we like for the upcoming 2018 season, and hopefully help all of you with your drafts.
And for the FIRST TIME EVER, twelve different writers & podcasters from five different sites participated, including:
- Matt Hicks (@Top2Matt), Mike Colaianne (@mike_colaianne) and Mike Wallace (@HobbyWally) from the Top2Sports Podcast,
- Nick Spartz (@BeerFueledFF), Kris Hopper (@HoppBFF) and Dan Thury (@ThuryBFF) from the Beer Fueled Fantasy Football Podcast,
- Mark Leipold (@LeipoldNFL) from Fantasy Pros and the Fantasy Football 24/7 Podcast,
- Andrew Erickson (@AndrewErickson_) from Gridiron Experts and Pro Football Focus and
- Ryan (@RyanWhitfieldNE), Scott (@NFLFantasy_More), Joanne (@kongfu4u) and I from right here on Football Garbage Time!
Below are the results of rounds three and four along with comments from those who made the picks. We also include the Average Draft Position (ADP) as of August 1st as per Fantasy Pros so you can see how we differ from how they’re currently being drafted in PPR leagues.
If you want to the see the complete four round draft results, check it out HERE.
Don’t agree? Well, it’s a free country, so sound off in the comments!
– Ha Kung Wong, Editor-In-Chief
3rd Round – Pick 25 – Mike Evans (WR) [Current ADP: 22.0]
4th Round – Pick 48 – Zach Ertz (TE) [Current ADP: 34.2]
This is what Mike had to say about his picks:
Mike Evans has recorded more then 1,000 yards in each of his first 4 seasons. I expect Evans to score more then the 5 he had in 2017 and return to being a solid WR 1
Zach Ertz has put up more then 800 receiving yards each of the last 3 seasons. With not much changing in Philadelphia, I expect this trend to continue. He is a stud at the TE position that is desperately looking for playmakers.
Zach Ertz made a huge impact from the slot in 2017! pic.twitter.com/eX3kRW4iPn
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 28, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 26 – Jordan Howard (RB) [Current ADP: 25.6]
4th Round – Pick 47 – Juju Smith-Schuster (WR) [Current ADP: 43.8]
This is what Kris had to say about his picks:
Jordan Howard — He is under appreciated. Two straight 1,000 yard seasons on bad bears offenses deserves way more respect. The knock on Howard tends to be his work in the passing game, but he improved his catch rate by over 20% last season and has continued to make it a focal point of his off season workouts. I expect this offense as a whole to be better and JoHo to once again be an RB1
Juju Smith-Schuster — The departure of Martavis Bryant stands to give Juju a target increase. The narrative that he only produced with AB gone is a load of crap also. In Weeks 2-10 after missing week 1 Juju was the WR18 for fantasy with Brown playing. He saw over 7 TGT’s a game on average with Brown playing. He is a solid WR2 with major upside.
No WR in the NFL generated a higher passer rating when targeted than JuJu Smith-Schuster! pic.twitter.com/aIDJwPWYpe
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) February 20, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 27 – Adam Thielen (WR) [Current ADP: 29.2]
4th Round – Pick 46 – Golden Tate (WR) [Current ADP: 45.8]
This is what Mike had to say of his picks:
Adam Thielen: After a breakout season he is getting an upgrade at QB. Great floor in PPR.
Golden Tate: A lot of people might be scared not to go RB here but too much value for me to pass on Tate. Now I have 3 guys who can be top 15 at WR and there are enough RBs I like later that I’m confident it will be fine.
Golden Tate forced the most missed tackles after the catch, again. pic.twitter.com/DKPA43PXI9
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 4, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 28 – LeSean McCoy (RB) [Current ADP: 28.4]
4th Round – Pick 45 – Sony Michel (RB) [Current ADP: 50.6]
This is what Andrew had to say about his picks:
LeSean McCoy – May have reached on McCoy here, to be honest. With questions surrounding him regarding off-the-field issues along with his age and the projected status of the rest of the Bills offense, he could have fallen into the fourth possibly. However, I am still buying that he will be playing and with volume alone will produce as at least an RB2 which was I acquired him at.
Sony Michel – I immediately regretted this decision. It was between him and Lamar Miller, and I chose Michel because of his upside and draft pedigree. However, my taste buds have changed on Michel slightly after watching him fumble at Patriots training camp. If I could go back I would take Miller here instead and take Burkhead in the 7th or 8th round.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) April 27, 2018
Ha Kung Wong
3rd Round – Pick 29 – Travis Kelce (TE) [Current ADP: 26.8]
4th Round – Pick 44 – Demaryius Thomas (WR) [Current ADP: 44.6]
Who needs Gronk when you have Travis Kelce? Kelce has the most fantasy points in PPR scoring of any TE in the NFL in 2017, even more than Gronk, mostly on the back of having more targets and receptions than his New England counterpart. Sure, there some questions regarding the switch from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, but I don’t see how Kelce doesn’t get as much if not more attention from Mahomes. There’s enough of a drop off in quality TEs that I don’t mind spending a pick in the 3rd round to ensure I get one of the top 3 (Gronk, Kelce or Ertz).
Travis Kelce was way out in front in terms of missed tackles forced by tight ends. pic.twitter.com/zlmod066Xs
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 30, 2018
Demaryius Thomas may be getting a bad rap for having a “bad” year. In 2017, he was only 51 yards short of having a sixth consecutive 1,000+ yard season, and that was playing with a laughable stable of QBs. Now the Broncos have Case Keenum, which is a significant upgrade under center. Keenum made both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs top 25 WRs last year, and there’s no reason he can’t make a 4 time Pro Bowler like Thomas a top 10 WR again.
3rd Round – Pick 30 – Kenyan Drake (RB) [Current ADP: 40.6]
4th Round – Pick 43 – Marvin Jones (WR) [Current ADP: 60.2]
This is what Joanne had to say about her picks:
Kenyan Drake – There’s a lot of upside to drafting Kenyan Drake. This 3rd year veteran showed a lot of potential and ability, especially in the later half of 2017, finishing with 133 attempts, 644 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns adding 239 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Drake’s break away speed and receiving game has made him an all-purpose asset for the Miami Dolphins.
Potentially in his way is offseason acquisition Frank Gore. Gore, who surprisingly was the 19th overall scoring fantasy running back in 2017 (261 attempts, 961 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 245 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown) is likely to see at least some action in Miami. In addition, the Dolphins will more than likely give some opportunity to rookie draft pick, Kalen Ballage (the Dolphins 4th round draft pick).
What it boils down too: No one can predict whether Drake will be the starter for the Dolphins, but he has history in the system and finished strong in 2017, likely giving him first crack. With Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and Brock Osweiler as back up, the back field will be particularly important for Miami.
And if you’re wondering who will get the majority of the carries in 2018, perhaps that doesn’t matter for Drake, as he has a much more efficient 4.84 yards per carry in 2017 as compared to Gore’s 3.68. In addition, Drake has the most rushing yards after contact in the backfield (130) of any running back of 2017 and has the most rushing yards per carry on the right side (5.68). And if the stats support it, you know it’s true.
Drop the mic!
Making contact with Kenyan Drake in the backfield in 2017 didn't always result in success for the defense! pic.twitter.com/jhkrhKKGO1
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 18, 2018
Marvin Jones – Not many people realize Marvin Jones’ success in the 2017 season for fantasy owners. As the eleventh highest scoring wide receiver in fantasy, Jones had 1,101 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
Targeted 107 times in 2017, Jones is a big target, even with Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay. Jones is a solid player with good chemistry with Lions quarterback Matt Stafford. According to FantasyPros, Jones might see less targets in the upcoming season, but that doesn’t negate his potential contribution to the team.
Marvin Jones was a big play threat on contested targets last year. pic.twitter.com/5o65oR2mGV
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 31, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 31 – T.Y. Hilton (WR) [Current ADP: 30.6]
4th Round – Pick 42 – Alshon Jeffery (WR) [Current ADP: 51.6]
This is what Scott had to say about his picks:
With the third pick I went WR with T.Y. I expect Luck to play an entire season and make some plays with that offense. My final pick was another WR with Alshon. I like what the Eagles offense can do and I think the offense will be more explosive with Wentz at the wheel.
Alshon Jeffery leads all playoff WRs in passer rating when targeted! pic.twitter.com/zvWRTWEQDF
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 22, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 32 – Amari Cooper (WR) [Current ADP: 36.8]
4th Round – Pick 41 – Aaron Rodgers (QB) [Current ADP: 30.2]
This is what Nick had to say about his picks:
Sliding into the third round, all the running backs I have any interest in this early are gone. Gronk/Kelce are also off the board so tight end isn’t an option. So I’m going to target wide receiver, and settle on Amari Cooper after TY Hilton goes one pick before me. I’d much rather have Hilton, but Cooper should be in line for 140+ targets this year, and grabbing him as my second receiver at 3.08 is a nice consolation prize.
Round four continues to see running backs fly off the board, and the next tier of backs has been completely wiped out by the time I’m on the clock at 4.05. There are a few recievers I really like here, but there is an obvious pick here with not a single QB gone in the first 40 picks. So I grab Aaron Rodgers to lock down the QB position. His ADP is currently in the 3rd round, so I don’t expect to own him in any leagues this year, but if he slips to the 4th round I’ll happily lock down elite production at the QB position.
After these four picks, the priority is definitely on more running backs to shore up that position. In round 5 I’d be looking at Royce Freeman, Mark Ingram, Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, Isaiah Crowell or Marlon Mack as my next tier of backs to target. Hopefully I’m able to grab 2 of them in the 5/6th rounds and then start targeting some safer pass catching backs like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson or Tarik Cohen in the 8th+ rounds. Will grab a tight end in the 6th or 7th – probably targeting Delanie Walker or Kyle Rudolph – and will start grabbing some of the mid round wide receivers I like in the 8th-10th round. Guys like Randall Cobb, Jamison Crowder, Rishard Matthews, Kenny Stills, Devante Parker, and Sterling Shepard.
Aaron Rodgers has been the most productive quarterback in the NFL under pressure since we began grading with the 2006 season. pic.twitter.com/BDyWvSbTZP
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 18, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 33 – Stefon Diggs (WR) [Current ADP: 33.6]
4th Round – Pick 40 – Rashaad Penny (RB) [Current ADP: 45.8]
This is what Mark had to say about his picks:
Stefon Diggs – Minnesota’s actual WR1 gets a QB upgrade in Kirk Cousins, and after missing a few games and being hampered by injuries the last few seasons, this year is the time we see fully unleashed Stefon Diggs. Ranking 5th in red zone receptions last season, and a very impressive efficiency line, Diggs here was an easy choice.
Rashaad Penny – After multiple consecutive seasons with a lackluster run game, the Seahawks told us everything they need to by drafting Rashaad Penny in the first round. A competent receiver with a prolific college resume, Penny can produce in multiple ways and will very likely see high volume, making him an intriguing option in the 4th round.
Rashaad Penny is a big play threat! pic.twitter.com/AIrbNI4kcp
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 9, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 34 – Larry Fitzgerald (WR) [Current ADP: 36.0]
4th Round – Pick 39 – Derrick Henry (RB) [Current ADP: 41.8]
This is what Ryan had to say about his picks:
With a lot of running back’s gone already, and the one’s left here, it felt like too much of a stretch to take one. So, this one was simple, Larry Fitzgerald is not a sexy name anymore, but he’s reliable and consistent. He was the best player on my board.
People are lower on Henry, but I am not. I know this is a PPR format, and Lewis will steal some work. But I see Henry big time in early downs and goal line situations. Fantasy Pro’s is projecting 213 carries and 6 Touchdowns. That seems like the floor to me, I would not be shocked at 230+ and double digit rushing Touchdowns this season.
Derrick Henry ranked second in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt in 2017. His new teammate Dion Lewis was right behind him. pic.twitter.com/ridttSXn0z
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 28, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 35 – Derrius Guice (RB) [Current ADP: 37.4]
4th Round – Pick 38 – Dion Lewis (RB) [Current ADP: 62.0]
This is what Dan had to say about his picks:
Derrius Guice – While Guice isn’t the ideal as my RB1, I was still super happy to get him. I loved him on tape, loved the way he runs the football, love his vision and while his pass catching numbers were low, there is upside there for him. There’s always a risk when taking a rookie RB as your RB1 or RB2, but with my Hopkins/Allen start, I feel a bit better about taking a risk.
Dion Lewis – This is where it truly shows if you don’t land a RB in the first 2 rounds. I am super high on Lewis this season and I’m ok with this pick, as my team looks right now, I need Lewis to really hit on his ADP here for me to feel great about this pick. I needed a RB2, and I could have waited ’til the 5/6 turn to take another back, I felt like my options would have been very limited and I would have lost a lot of flexibility with those picks. Either way, I have Lewis ranked as a back end RB2, so to me, the reach doesn’t look as bad.
The Washington Redskins stop the slide and draft LSU running back Derrius Guice, who was one of the toughest running backs in the nation to tackle pic.twitter.com/lfONEqsmSv
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) April 28, 2018
3rd Round – Pick 36 – Alex Collins (RB) [Current ADP: 45.8]
4th Round – Pick 37 – Tyreek Hill (WR) [Current ADP: 28.8]
This is what Matt had to say about his picks:
Alex Collins – Once Collins took over the lead back role in 2017, he showed himself as a very viable fantasy option. From Week 11 on, he averaged 17 carries, 65 yards, and just under 1 touchdown per game. Dixon presents little threat to Collins and the Ravens offense will be given new life this season with a reinvigorated Flacco (or, if we’re lucky, Lamar Jackson) and Crabtree and a slew of other potential threats (or burnouts) stacking the receiving corps. There’s a lot of questions in Baltimore, but Collins is in line to be the consistent contributor from that offense.
Tyreek Hill – Am I worried about Hill’s ability to contribute in a stacked offense? Yes. Am I so worried that I’d pass on the WR4 from 2017 in the fourth round? Absolutely not. Hill piled up 75 receptions on just 105 targets (71% catch rate), showing he’s both efficient and not in need of significant volume to contribute to a fantasy roster. He also caught 7 touchdowns, and averaged 15.8 yards per reception, suggesting he will pair well with Mahomes coveted big-play potential arm. I’m not in love with this pick, but I’d be psyching myself out way too much if I passed on it.
It's no surprise that Tyreek Hill scored the most touchdowns on throws 30+ yards in the air last season. pic.twitter.com/iSSlzJXHPi
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 13, 2018
Thanks for following and reading about the 2018 #FGTMockDraft!
Good luck with your fantasy football season, and don’t hesitate to contact us on Twitter if you need help!