Best Daily Fantasy Football Plays for Cash Games – Super Bowl LIII

January 31, 2019

By Ha Kung Wong Super Bowl LIII

I hope you followed my advice for NFL Pro Bowl DFS Lineups, because we cruised to cash in 3 of 4 lineups, putting us on a nice multi-lineup cash run of 12 weeks in a row! And there’s still one more chance to play daily fantasy football on FanDuel and Draft Kings for Super Bowl LIII!

All the Super Bowl lineups this year on most sites are of the “Single Game” or “Showdown” variety. This means slightly different things on FanDuel and Draft Kings.

FanDuel – You have $60,000 total salary to fill 1 MVP and 4 regular spots. MVP scores 1.5x but does NOT cost more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $12,000.
Draft Kings – You have $50,000 total salary to fill 1 Captain and 5 regular spots. Captain scores 1.5x but COSTS 1.5x more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $10,000. But since you have to pay more for your Captain, assume you’re paying around $15,000 for a Captain leaving you with around $7000 for each of the 5 remaining slots.

Usually I focus on cash games, but since the Pro Bowl is mostly a crap shoot, there are really no differences in looking at cash or GPP tournaments. I’ll give you my thoughts on who to play in DFS generally, will note if I like them for the Captain/MVP position, and will provide a few SAMPLE lineups.

One last note for all of you. As I ALWAYS do, I prefer to enter LOTS of $1 tourneys than a few $10 tourneys. The reason is that there’s no accounting for crazy people just randomly selecting players, and although they’re unlikely to win, you never know when they might catch lightening in a bottle and knock you out of the cash. So to minimize this randomness, I prefer to spread out all my lineups over more entries (i.e. I’d rather be in 10 x $5 tourneys than 5 x $10 tourneys). Just sayin, do what you prefer, but that’s why you’ll see me put in a lot of $1 tourneys.

Also, don’t forget to check out Ryan Whitfield and Joey Alibro’s DFS advice in our latest podcast!

OK, so let’s get started!

Super Bowl LIII

February 3, 2019 @ 6:30 PM ET

Patriots favored by 2.5

Over/Under of 57.5

This format might look familiar as this how I usually breakdown matchups in the playoffs, but I’m going to include this here for your reference.

Patriots Offense

Passing Rank (DVOA) – 4th

Passing Yards Per Game – 266.1 (8th)

Rushing Rank (DVOA) – 9th

Rushing Yards Per Game – 127.3 (5th)

Points Per Game – 27.3 (4th)

Captain/MVP Options:

QB Tom Brady
RB Sony Michel
WR Julian Edelman

Other Options:

TE Rob Gronkowski
RB James White
WR Phillip Dorsett
WR Chris Hogan
RB Rex Burkhead
K Stephen Gostkowski

Listen, I’m not talking you out of rostering Patriots, but just don’t go crazy, as you know that Brady and Belichick will spread it around. With that said, there’s plenty of players that I like on this side of the ball.

Tom Brady has put up serious numbers in prior Super Bowls when the Patriots were behind. There’s no reason to pull any punches, so Brady won’t miss a snap regardless, and the Pats will almost certainly run the score up if they can in light of this “they’re not that good” narrative. He’s held back by QB scoring being less favorable than other skill positions, but he otherwise has the highest floor and makes for a great Captain/MVP play.

My favorite play, though, is the run game, specifically Sony Michel. Michel, Burkhead and White all have upside and all are seeing work, which is a pain for DFS, but I think Michel is the most reliable, followed by White, against a Rams defense ranked 28th against the run. Plus Michel is cheaper on Draft Kings than Brady, Edelman AND White, so he’s a great candidate for that Captain/MVP spot. On FanDuel, your Captain/MVP doesn’t cost more, so it’s less imperative to roster Michel there, but I still like the move based on usage and upside.

According to Football Outsiders, the Rams are best against WR2s and TEs. The clear WR1 is Julian Edelman, which the Rams are worst at defending, being ranked only 28th per DVOA. Edelman has had at least 10 targets in his last 10 playoff appearances, so he has high a floor and ceiling as anyone, particularly in full PPR scoring on Draft Kings.

So the question is who is the WR2, Phillip Dorsett or Chris Hogan or someone else? Who knows, as Hogan has been getting the targets and snaps (at a rate of 70-80%) while Dorsett has been getting the TDs (now with a TD in 3 straight games). And Dorsett is no slouch on targets either, with 5, 5, and 3 in the last 3 games.

At TE, assuming Gronk is still healthy, I don’t mind the play for the price, as he’s fairly discounted. The Rams are solid against TEs, but we saw vintage Gronk in the AFC Championship Game, and since there’s a real possibility that this is Gronk’s last game ever, I can see Brady trying to get him a score to go out on.

Patriots Defense

Pass Defense Rank (DVOA) – 14th

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game – 246.4 (22nd)

Run Defense Rank (DVOA) – 19th

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game – 112.7 (11th)

Points Allowed Per Game – 20.3 (7th)

The Patriots defense are certainly opportunistic, and they’re averaging over 5 sacks per game over their last 4, but I’m not paying up for it. I’m not a fan of playing defenses in the Showdown slate as I’d rather player one of the kickers if you need to save money, or take a swing at one of the value WRs in the game on both sides.

Rams Offense

Passing Rank (DVOA) – 5th

Passing Yards Per Game – 281.7 (5th)

Rushing Rank (DVOA) – 1st

Rushing Yards Per Game – 139.4 (3rd)

Points Per Game – 32.9 (2nd)

Captain/MVP Options:

RB Todd Gurley
WR Robert Woods
WR Brandin Cooks

Other Options

QB Jared Goff
RB CJ Anderson
WR Josh Reynolds
TE Tyler Higbee
K Greg Zurlein

Clearly, the best chance for the Rams to win is on the ground. And that means Todd Gurley has to be healthy. He hasn’t looked good so far in the playoffs, and McVay blames conditioning and performance, but one doesn’t go from the best to the worst on bad conditioning. I think there was an injury there, but that this two weeks off is a huge chance for Gurley to get right. I know it’s still a black box as the Rams aren’t likely to give us any more information on Gurley’s health, but his upside is just too high not to consider him on your roster, and even as your MVP/Captain. CJ Anderson is also worth rostering, but be prepared for a low floor if Gurley goes off.

I’m less interested in Jared Goff as he’s been relatively subpar of late, including in the playoffs. But he does have a high ceiling if he can find his grove again, plus the Rams may need to sling it to catch up if they fall behind early. He’s worth roster consideration, but I like his two top targets in Brandin Cooks and Roberts Woods more. Unfortunately, Cooks is likely to see coverage by Stephon Gilmore, while Josh Reynolds draws Jason McCourty. That leaves Woods against the weakest of the 3 CBs in J.C. Jackson. That means I like Woods better on full PPR sites and as your MVP/Captain, but Cooks is still only a big play away from exceeding value and has the higher ceiling, so I probably won’t fade him. I’m less bullish on Reynolds based on his role and matchup, but still don’t mind rostering him.

And if you want to go for value, go ahead an give Tyler Higbee a look. I like his upside more than Gerald Everett, but both are value punt plays more than anything else.

Rams Defense

Pass Defense Rank (DVOA) – 9th

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game – 236.3 (14th)

Run Defense Rank (DVOA) – 28th

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game – 122.3 (23rd)

Points Allowed Per Game – 24.0 (20th)