NFL AFC Divisional Playoffs Preview & Prediction

By Ha Kung Wong 

Twitter: @FBGarbageTime

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Kansas City ChiefsNew England Patriots

Saturday – 4:35 PM ET

New England is favored by 5

Keys for the Chiefs

As I mentioned last week, Alex Smith is surprisingly spry on his feet, totaling almost 500 rushing yards on 84 carries, good for 4th most rushing yards among QBs in the NFL.  And he’ll need those quick feet to avoid the Patriots defense, who although allowed the 16th most passing yards per game (241), also tallied the 2nd most sacks this season (49), which is particularly problematic in light of the fact that the Chiefs offensive line has allowed the 6th most sacks this season (46).  Unlike last week where I thought that Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West were the best options to move the ball, I think this time it will be squarely on Alex Smith avoiding the pass rush, being decisive, and either stepping up to run or quickly connecting with Travis Kelce or Jeremy Maclin.

Unfortunately, with Maclin suffering from a high ankle sprain, and potentially some knee issues, his participation on Saturday is far from guaranteed.  Kelce has stepped up big, but there’s little depth at WR after Maclin. Head coach Andy Reid has stated that Maclin’s high ankle sprain is “mild” and he’s trending in the right direction, but we’ll have to keep an eye out for updates closer to the game.

With regard to the ground game (which is tied for the most rushing TDs this season), although Ware had an impressive 67 yards and a TD against the Texans, out performing West, he also suffered an ankle sprain and hasn’t practiced yet this week.  West should be fine if he has to go alone, we’ve seen him produce as an RB1 before, but he’ll find it tough sledding against a Patriots defense that has allowed the 9th least rushing yards per game (98.8).

Keys for the Patriots

There’s no real weakness in the Chiefs defense (9th against the pass and 8th against the run), but the Chiefs just don’t allow rushing TDs (3rd least in the NFL at 7 total for the season), and New England is now relying on retread Steven Jackson as one of their lead backs, so New England’s best bet is to match up Tom Brady with the Chiefs pass defense.  The bye week was critical for the Pats, as we know that Julian Edelman will return, giving back Brady his number 1 target.

And it looks like Brady’s high ankle sprain is no longer a significant issue.  A healthy Brady is a force to be reckoned with as the Patriots are tied for the 4th most passing yards per game (287.0), tied for the most total passing TDs (36), and tied for the least number of INTs thrown (7) this season.

James White will also be important, as I consider him more a part of the passing game than the ground in light of his involvement catching passes out of the backfield.  It’s notable that the Patriots are the only team in the NFL that has not lost a single rushing fumble, but honestly, there have been so many RBs cycling through the Pats system not named James White and Steven Jackson that I’m not sure that means anything going forward.

Prediction

According to Football Outsiders, Chiefs have a total Defense-adjusted Over Average (DVOA) rank of 5th and the Patriots are right behind them at 6th.  But I think home field advantage and a finally healthy Patriots team will be too much for an injured Chiefs team to endure.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New England Patriots 24

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Pittsburgh SteelersDenver Broncos Logo

Sunday – 4:40 PM ET

Denver is favored by 6.5

Last time these teams met, in Week 15, the Broncos played a perfect game… for two quarters.  Then Big Ben and Antonio Brown put on a passing / receiving clinic against the best pass defense in the NFL, putting up 380 passing yards and 3 passing TDs.  But this time, the Steelers are banged up while the Broncos come off a bye, and there’s a new signal caller behind center in Denver.  Will it make a difference?

Keys for the Steelers

Unfortunately for the Steelers, the theme of the week is injuries.

DeAngelo Williams was out last week against the Bengals, even after having an MRI that did not uncover any major damage.  And now he’s going to see foot specialist Dr. Robert Anderson.

But at least he has a sense of humor about it:

I’d bet he won’t play and that we’ll see more Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman, who were actually passable last week.  So Williams being out doesn’t concern me as much.

What really concerns me are the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown.

Big Ben went out with a shoulder injury on his throwing arm during the Bengals game, but did return for the final game winning drive. During an after game interview, though, Ben did mention that he was in excruciating pain during that last drive.  I was worried about Ben’s consistency before he was injured (just compare Week 16 – 220 yards and 2 INTs against BAL –  to Week 17 – 349 yards and 3 TDs and 2 INTs against CLE), but a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder doesn’t sound good.

Although he’s day-to-day, Ben is one of the toughest guys in football.  You can bet if he can generate enough velocity to throw the ball down the field, he’ll find a way to be out there, which will be critical to the Steelers chances as we saw how terrible they were with Landry Jones under center.

Martavis Bryant did step up after being called out by Big Ben, but Markus Wheaton took his turn to disappear.  It ultimately didn’t matter because the Bengals defense is full of idiots (Burfict and Jones – I’m looking at you), but it’s concerning that the two WRs can’t find a way to both be productive in the same game.

More concerning was the cheap helmet-to-helmet shot by Burfict on Antonio Brown at the end of the game, that ultimately put Brown on the concussion protocol.  Adam “Pacman” Jones accused Brown of flopping and said he should get a “Grammy” for it, which clearly demonstrates that Jones has no idea what a Grammy is.  Jones says he’ll apologize IF Brown doesn’t play this weekend, but still bizarrely believes he faked getting hit.  As a side note, Burfict has now been suspended 3 games for his disregard for player safety throughout the season, but is looking to appeal.

Right now, reports are Antonio Brown is not likely to play, but concussions are tricky injuries and we probably won’t know for sure until game day.

Keys for the Broncos

I’d like to call Brock Osweiler “Mr. Even Steven”.  He was great in the first half of games but then did equal amounts of bad in the second half of games.  And that’s exactly how the Broncos lost in their meeting earlier this year (in addition to the Denver defense inexplicably failing to properly cover Antonio Brown).  Ultimately, the Broncos had enough of it and decided an old, injured Peyton Manning was better than getting essentially negative production from their QB.  Osweiler is practicing after recovering from an MCL strain, but Peyton has already been tabbed the starter for this week’s game.

Let’s face it, though, Denver’s offense is not particularly good.  Although they have a respectable 14th most passing yards per game (248), they also had the 5th least passing TDs (19) and most INTs in the league (23) this year.  And that’s on Manning AND Osweiler.  Facing a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the 3rd most passing yards per game(271.9) might help, but they also tallied the 3rd most total sacks (48) this season, which doesn’t bode well for a relatively non-mobile Manning.

Further, CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman haven’t been much of a threat as Denver had the 16th least rushing yards per game (107.4) as well.  Matched against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the 5th least rushing yards per game (91.2) and 2nd least total rushing TDs (6), I wouldn’t expect anything better this weekend.

So it will be almost entirely on the Denver defense, which actually matches well against the Steelers, particularly with a less than healthy Big Ben, and perhaps no Antonio Brown or DeAngelo Williams.  Sure, they fell apart in the last meeting with Pittsburgh, but nevertheless, Denver has allowed the least passing yards per game (200.0), the least yards per attempt (6.2), and have tallied the most total sacks (52) this season.  One might point to the fact that he Steelers have the 3rd most passing yards per game this season (287.8), but that’s with Antonio Brown healthy.  And on the ground, the Broncos been just as effective, allowing the 3rd least rushing yards per game (83.6) and the least rushing yards per attempt (3.3) this season.

Prediction

Football Outsiders ranked Pittsburgh 7th in DVOA and Denver right behind at 8th.  But that’s with a healthy Big Ben, Antonio Brown and running back.  If Brown is 100% for this game, I give the Steelers a chance to advance.  But I think if he plays, he’ll be much less than that, leaving this a close game which the Broncos will pull out at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 20

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