2016 NFL Draft – AFC South – To Be or Not To Be….That is the Question for the Houston Texans

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u 

NUMBER 22 PICK: Houston Texans

Although the Denver Broncos had the number one defense in 2015, their offense was far from number one.  The reason…Peyton Manning.  If you ask any sports analyst, Peyton Manning would surely be recognized as one of the best quarterbacks ever in American Football.  However, Manning’s final season was far from one of his best years.

Peyton Manning was ranked 36th out of 37 quarterbacks in the NFL in the 2015 season.  Manning finished the season with a QBR (ESPN based quarterback rating) of 45.  He had 17 interceptions in the regular season, threw for only 2,249 yards and 9 touchdowns.  A drastic decline from his 2014 season where he threw for 4,727 yards and had 39 passing touchdowns.  Yet, the Broncos managed to win Super Bowl 50.

It just goes to show that you don’t need to have a great quarterback to be successful.  In fact, in this case, you didn’t even need an average one.  But that’s the exception, not the rule, and the Houston Texans weren’t going to take any chances.  But did they make the right moves in the offseason so far, and will the NFL Draft be enough fill their remaining gaps?

So what will make the Texans a stronger team in 2016?

The Defense

According to Football Outsiders, the Texans ranked 7th in defense, performing better against the deep pass than the short pass (fifteen yards or fewer) and was weakest against running back receptions (ranked 18 out of 32 teams).

In general, the Texans have a secure defense with J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney.  In 2015, the Texans allowed the third fewest yards to their opponents and allowed the eighth fewest points per game.  The Texans also had the 5th most sacks (45)and the 13th most fumble recoveries (11) in the league.

Even though the Texans still have need for a strong safety, linebacker and defensive end to complement J.J. Watt and strengthen their front line, none of that is a priority for their first round pick at 22nd overall.  The Texans should be able to draft a worthwhile defensive end in the second round.

And for all of you worried about J.J. Watt.  Don’t be.  He seems to be doing just fine.

Post-surgery progress. pic.twitter.com/GCp0AXeKEB

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) April 2, 2016

The Texans major need falls on the offensive side of the line.

The Offense

Skill position check list:

Quarterback: check

In 2015, the Texans had the majority of their problems with their offense – quarterback, running back, tight end and, in general, a receiving core (outside of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins).  What lead them to the top of the AFC South division was simply being better than their divisional competition, which unfortunately isn’t saying much.

The Texans must have bought into the mystique which is the Denver Broncos, hoping for some Super Bowl magic by signing Brock Osweiler during the offseason to the tune of a $72 million contract, with $37 million guaranteed.  The Texans haven’t had the best of luck with quarterbacks, so only time will tell if Osweiler is a worthwhile investment.  Although Osweiler had periodic bouts of franchise quarterback potential, he has yet to prove his ability to consistently lead a team to the playoffs, much less his capabilities as a leader in general.

Obviously, the Denver Broncos didn’t mind losing him too much, which also might tell you something.

If you want to put Osweiler’s salary into context, take a look at what the Cincinnati Bengals did this offseason.  The Bengal’s signed nine free agents, which include ex-New England Patriot Brandon LaFell (WR), resigned Vincent Rey (LB), resigned Adam Jones (CB) and resigned George IIoka (SS) to mention a few, ALL IN TOTAL for less than Osweiler’s contract with the Texans.

With the quarterback position “secured”, the Texans can address other weak points on the team.

Running Back: check

Suffering from an early season ending injury in 2015, running back Arian Foster and the Texans have decided to part ways this offseason.  Replacing the once star running back, the Texans have signed former Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller in a $26 million four-year contract with $14 million guaranteed.

Miller has only improved over the last four years in the league.  He had less attempts in 2015 (194) compared to the previous year (216), but he still managed to get 872 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns.  In 2014, Miller had 1,099 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns.  Miller should be a good fit with Houston’s run heavy offense.

Running back Johnathan Grimes, has also been re-signed to the Texans roster.  In 2015, Grimes had just 56 attempts, rushed for 282 yards and a touchdown.

Tight end: ???

Garret Graham, tight end, was cut this offseason by the Texans.  Graham was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, having his best season in 2013 with 545 yards and 5 touchdowns and declining in productivity since (catching only 4 of 19 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown in 2015).  Every team in the league can see the advantages of having a Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham (although his productivity hasn’t been up to expectations since playing for the Seattle Seahawks) or Jason Witten or Vernon Davis (in his prime) or Antonio Gates or Gary Barnidge…I can go on and on.

Unfortunately, there is a shallow pool of tight ends worth drafting in the 2016 NFL draft class.  And, although the Texans severely need a tight end, none are worth taking in the first round.  Thus, it will be better for the Texans to look to draft a tight end in later rounds.

Since we’ve determined that there are no tight ends worth selecting with the 22nd overall pick, the Texans would be wise to draft a receiver to complement DeAndre Hopkins.  A solid second receiver would relieve some of the pressure and coverage off Hopkins and give Brock Osweiler some needed potential targets down field.

Receivers: ???

The Texans only have DeAndre Hopkins to do the work of three wide receivers and a tight end.  Need I say more?

The good news…not many of the 21 teams drafting before the Texans are looking to fill a wide receiver slot in the first round.  This gives the Texans an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the wide receiver pool.

There might be a diamond in the rough in later rounds, but there aren’t many options that project immediate potential to being a successful high caliber NFL wide receiver.  But perhaps some of these should be considered.

In the 2016 draft, with the 22nd pick, the Texans should pick a wide receiver. 

Corey Coleman, Baylor, lacks the desirable height (5’11”) but impressed in his vertical jump during the combine.  Shorter arm length (30 & 1/4″) and less than average hand size (9) may face some difficulty in high pointing balls while running against defenders.

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, has a shorter reach and didn’t impress vertically.  With an arm length of 30 & 3/4” and a much smaller hand size (8 & 1/4”) than most his competition in the NFL, he may find it more challenging to secure the ball, where the lack of vertical mobility will cause problems for the hard to reach outside passes.  At six-feet, his height is respectable but places him on the average spectrum for wide receivers.  This will place him at a disadvantage when going against corners and battling safeties for those hard to reach 50/50 balls downfield.  To his advantage, Fuller’s speed will help gain separation from cornerbacks and create opportunities for scoring.

Josh Doctson, TCU, suffered a wrist injury in his senior year, taking him out of the final game and requiring surgery.  However, Doctson didn’t appear to show any signs of lingering injury during the Combine.  He’s ranked fourth overall in his position by most draft analysts, but can potentially be an asset due to his size comparatively to his competition and athleticism.

And for all of you more interested in J.J. Watt than the Texans, here’s an Offseason Update:

We learned that J.J. Watt played with 5 partially and fully torn muscles during the 2015 season in his torso, groin and upper legs, several which needed surgery.  Yeah, that’s probably as painful as it sounds.  Especially that groin part.  Eek.

Regardless, J.J. Watt won his third Defense player of the year award at the NFL Honors.  This puts him in good company, as Lawrence Taylor was the only other player to win the award back-to-back, as well as win the award three times.

And last but not least, Watt and about 20 of his fellow teammates galloped into the wooded glen surrounding Watt’s Wisconsin cabin, and after punch dancing out their rage and frustrations over the 2015 season, they realized what needed to be done in 2016.

Actually, I made that part up.  It’s most likely that they just went around shirtless, carrying around tree trunks in slow motion and setting traps for the Predator.  You know…just in case.

So what it all boils down too is whatever J.J. Watt seems to do or say becomes news.  And I don’t have a problem with that.

This is news? I'm 26 & single. It's not exactly the end of the world, I'm doing alright. https://t.co/BComsoQ5xF

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) September 17, 2015

***

As an expansion team, the Houston Texans entered the National Football League in 2002, fourteen years ago, after the Houston Oilers relocated to Tennessee and renamed themselves the Tennessee Titans.  Being the youngest team in the AFC South division, it’s expected that the Houston Texans would go through some growing pains.

In the fourteen years in the NFL, the Texans have won the AFC South division in 2011, 2012 and 2015.  But, the Texans has yet to win an AFC Conference Championship or a Super Bowl title.

So can the Texans reach the promise land in 2016?

With an untested quarterback, a lack of skill position players and a need to tighten up the offensive and defensive lines, the answer should become more clear after the NFL Draft (April 28-30) on May 1, 2016.