Cash💰 or Stash🧳: Is Ashton Jeanty a Solid Top 10 NFL Draft Pick?🤔
By Ha Kung Wong
Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State running back, has emerged as a prominent prospect for the 2025 NFL Draft, with some analysts projecting him as a top-10 pick. His 2024 collegiate performance, including leading the FBS with 2,601 rushing yards, having the 2nd most rushing touchdowns in the FBS (29), and winning the Doak Walker Award, the Maxwell Award as well as earning unanimous All-American honors, underscores his talent. However, selecting Jeanty within the top 10 picks entails certain risks that NFL teams should consider.
Positional Value in the NFL Draft
The running back position has seen a decline in draft value in recent years, with teams often prioritizing positions deemed more critical to long-term success, such as quarterback, edge rusher, and offensive tackle. Investing a top-10 pick in a running back, regardless of talent, may be viewed as a suboptimal allocation of resources, especially given the depth of running back talent typically available in later rounds.
| Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Team | G | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Y/G | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G |
| 2022* | Boise State | 14 | 156 | 821 | 5.3 | 7 | 58.6 | 14 | 155 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 2023* | Boise State | 12 | 220 | 1347 | 6.1 | 14 | 112.3 | 43 | 569 | 5 | 47.4 |
| 2024 | Boise State | 14 | 374 | 2601 | 7.0 | 29 | 185.8 | 23 | 138 | 1 | 9.9 |
| Care | Care | 40 | 750 | 4769 | 6.4 | 50 | 119.2 | 80 | 862 | 6 | 21.6 |
That being said, dominant performances this season from Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and James Cook, all four of which being in part responsible for their respective teams making the post-season, will have teams taking a very close look at the position, particularly with Barkley having been drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft back in 2018 and Gibbs being drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft in 2023. Everyone remembers Barkley’s homerun potential in the playoffs, and Jeanty did the same in college with runs of 50-plus yards in 9 of his 14 games in 2024.
Translating Collegiate Success to the NFL
Jeanty’s impressive statistics were largely accumulated against Mountain West Conference opponents, which may not mirror the level of competition in the NFL. Scouts have noted that while Jeanty possesses good burst and acceleration, he lacks a higher gear, raising concerns about his ability to consistently produce big plays at the professional level, particularly after his worst showing of the season (a season low 104 yards on 3.5 yards per carry) in a loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Additionally, questions about his ability to win the corner and outrun pursuit angles further complicate projections of his NFL success.
Pass Protection and Versatility
In today’s NFL, running backs are expected to contribute not only as ball carriers but also in pass protection and as receivers. While Jeanty is described as a willing and competitive pass protector, his technique requires refinement. Issues such as sloppy hand placement and exposing his chest to defenders could limit his effectiveness on passing downs, potentially reducing his playing time and overall value to a team. With regard to work as a receiver, Jeanty averaged only 21.6 receiving yards per game at Boise State, but did average 10.8 yards per reception, so the potential is there. Teams without RB rooms with a clear lead back, such as the Las Vegas Raiders, may ultimately benefit from Jeanty’s explosiveness on offense while leaning on other backs for pass protection, at least in the short term.
Durability and Longevity Concerns
The physical demands of the running back position often lead to concerns about player longevity. Jeanty’s compact and dense frame (5′ 9″ and 215 lbs.) contributes to his powerful running style, but it also subjects him to significant contact. On the plus side, Jeanty is nearly impossible to tackle with 1,970 of his yards in 2024 being after contact, which is not only most in the FBS, but essentially the most ever for a running back. But contact does take its toll, and that might be a red flag too. Teams may be cautious about investing a high draft pick in a position where players frequently have shorter career spans due to the physical toll, particularly with Jeanty coming off the most plays from scrimmage last season of any running back in the FBS (397) and the 7th most career plays from scrimmage of any running back in the Moutain West over the last 25 years after just 3 at Boise State.
The Verdict: Boom-or-Bust Potential?
While Ashton Jeanty’s collegiate achievements and skill set make him an intriguing prospect, NFL teams must carefully assess the associated risks of selecting a running back in the top 10. Positional value, the transition to higher-level competition, pass protection capabilities, and durability are critical factors that could influence his immediate impact and long-term success in the league. With that said, Jeanty has been all-world at Boise State and one of highest running back prospects to enter the draft since Bijan Robinson. Currently, consensus NFL Draft Big Boards have him at 5.25 overall, with the 33rd Team being highest on him at 3 and Bleacher Report being the lowest on him at 9. He’s been compared to Alvin Kamara and LaDainian Tomlinson, both of which are huge game changers. Even with the potential concerns, it appears that investing a top-10 draft selection in Jeanty should be well worth the upgrade for any running back needy team with significant long-term upside.