NFC Conference Championship Preview & Prediction
By Ha Kung Wong
Twitter/X: @FBGarbageTime
Don’t forget to check out this week’s podcast to get a full breakdown of the Conference Championship games from Ryan Whitfield and me!
Detroit Lions (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 6:30 PM ET
- 49ers favored by 7
- Over/Under: 50.5
Detroit Lions Stats
Offense per Game
- Passing – 2nd (258.9)
- Rushing – 5th (135.9)
- Points – 5th (27.1)
Defense per Game Allowed
- Passing – 27th (247.4)
- Rushing – 2nd (88.8)
- Points – 23rd (23.2)
- Turnover Differential – (0) (Tied for 16th Best)
San Francisco 49ers Stats
Offense per Game
- Passing – 4th (257.9)
- Rushing – 3rd (140.5)
- Points – 3rd (28.9)
Defense per Game Allowed
- Passing – 14th (214.2)
- Rushing – 3rd (89.7)
- Points – 3rd (17.5)
- Turnover Differential – (+10) (Tied for 5th Best)
Preview & Prediction
The Lions are a great story, not having won a playoff game in 32 years and not having won two playoff games in the same season since 1957, almost a decade before the first Super Bowl. They essentially have done it on the back of their dynamic offense with the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL behind rejuvenated QB Jared Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Sam LaPorta and the 5th best rushing offense behind pseudo-thunder-and-lightening combo of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who by the way became the youngest NFL player to score a go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game last week. But perhaps most impressive in the Divisional Round game against the Buccaneers was the Lions defense stepping up and sacking Baker Mayfield 4 times for a loss of 30 total yards as well as intercepting him twice, the second of which to seal the game. Last season, everyone said that the Lions were essentially there on offense and could take a leap forward with a reasonable defense. The regular season wasn’t great, with the Lions ending with the 6th worst pass defense and allowing the 10th most points per game (23.2) to opposing offenses, so this performance was encouraging. Unfortunately, the 49ers are not the Bucs, as the 49ers have been one of the most balanced teams in the league.
The 49ers have the 4th best passing and 3rd best rushing offense and they scored the 3rd most points per game in the NFL. A large part of that is Brock Purdy‘s efficiency and Christian McCaffrey‘s dominance on the ground. McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and scrimmage yards (2,023) during the regular season and was perhaps the single largest reason they managed to outlast the Packers in the Divisional Round piling up 128 total yards and 2 TDs. Over 5 career playoff games, McCaffrey has now averaged 108.8 yards per game, scoring at least one TD each time. The Lions have the 2nd best run defense in the NFL, but McCaffrey isn’t an ordinary RB, amassing the most receiving yards (564) and receiving TDs (7) of any RB this season, setting an 8-year career record for receiving TDs in a single season. And the Lions 27th ranked pass defense shouldn’t be much of a problem for Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel (who appears will play this weekend) and George Kittle.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense allows the 3rd least points per game to opposing teams. This will be the toughest defense the Lions have faced in the postseason, and although they’ve taken care of business, keep in mind that they beat both the Rams and Bucs at home by within one score each. The key for the Lions will be to take some deep shots when available against the 49ers 14th ranked pass defense. The Lions have the 3rd best completion percentage in the NFL with passes over 20 yards, so getting the ball downfield to St. Brown will be critical. Using Gibbs in the passing game and taking advantage of speed to beat the pass rush can also give the Lions a leg up. Ultimately, though, everything would have to go perfectly for the Lions to pull off the upset in Santa Clara. And as we saw, the 49ers don’t have to play a perfect game to win. They just have to get the ball to CMC.
49ers Win