“Buy or Bye”™️ – Daily Fantasy Football Plays for 2022 Pro Bowl Cash Games
By Ha Kung Wong Daily Fantasy Football
Twitter: @FBGarbageTime
So most of the NFL season is over and you already miss playing daily fantasy football. Well, stop worrying! Turns out, as we’ve seen in the past, there are a assortment of contests left on FanDuel, Draft Kings and Yahoo Daily Fantasy that include the Pro Bowl!
I can tell you that I’ve attended only one Pro Bowl, back in 2009, and it was basically more of an excuse to spend some time in Hawaii. Heck, I think for the first time ever, I was more interested in the halftime performance than I was in the actual game. Anyway, the problem with the Pro Bowl for DFS (because we are all well aware of the problems with the Pro Bowl as a football game) is that it is near impossible to predict how long each player will be on the field and how many opportunities he will get to put up points. It could be 3 Hail Mary TDs in a row, or 4 passes for 30 yards and an INT.
So predicting options for Pro Bowl DFS lineups is pretty tough, which means that more than usual, you’re closer to gambling on these lineups. With that in mind, I’ll at least give you a few facts to help you make your educated guesses.
All the Pro Bowl lineups this year on most sites are of the “Single Game” or “Showdown” variety. This means slightly different things on FanDuel and Draft Kings.
- FanDuel – You have $60,000 total salary to fill 1 MVP and 4 regular spots. MVP scores 1.5x but does NOT cost more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $12,000.
- Draft Kings – You have $50,000 total salary to fill 1 Captain and 5 regular spots. Captain scores 1.5x but COSTS 1.5x more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $10,000. But since you have to pay more for your Captain, assume you’re paying around $15,000 for a Captain leaving you with around $7000 for each of the 5 remaining slots.
- Yahoo – It’s a regular slate including both the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl. I’ve included more explanation on this one below next to the Sample lineup.
Usually I focus on cash games, but since the Pro Bowl is mostly a crap shoot, there are really no differences in looking at cash or GPP tournaments. I’ll give you my thoughts on who to play in DFS generally, will note if I like them for the Captain/MVP position, and will provide a few SAMPLE lineups.
One last note for all of you. As I ALWAYS do, I prefer to enter LOTS of $1 tourneys than a few $10 tourneys. The reason is that there’s no accounting for crazy people just randomly selecting players, and although they’re unlikely to win, you never know when they might catch lightening in a bottle and knock you out of the cash. So to minimize this randomness, I prefer to spread out all my lineups over more entries (i.e. I’d rather be in 10 x $5 tourneys than 5 x $10 tourneys). Just sayin, do what you prefer, but that’s why you’ll see me put in a lot of $1 tourneys.
OK, so let’s get started!
2022 Pro Bowl
AFC favored by 1
Over/Under 62.5
There’s two things I look at when making Pro Bowl DFS player selections. First, I like skill players that are playing with other guys from their team. So that includes QBs, WRs, RBs and offensive linemen from the same team. It just makes sense that they have a better chance of performing when working with someone they know and trust. Second, you have to at least get a feel for what different skill positions are likely to do in the Pro Bowl, since it’s a game unlike any other played in the NFL season.
To understand that, let’s take a look at some per game stats since the Pro Bowl rules changed to allow defenses to play Cover 2 and press coverage in addition to man coverage and sped up the game clock in 2014 through 2016, 2018 through 2019 and 2021, tossing out the 2017 defensive battle aberration and 2020 which was cancelled due to COVID.
Quarterbacks
Average Total Passing TDs – 6.17
Average Number of QBs played – 6
Average Passing TDs per QB Played – 1.03
QBs with More than 1 TD – 1.83
Average Total INTs – 4.50
Average INTs per QB played – 0.75
This tells us that although QBs average almost a TD per game, it’s very difficult to predict which QBs will get them. Maybe you get lucky and the QB you chose gets 2 TDs, or maybe your QB completely bombs out at 0. Plus, each QB averages 0.77 INTs per game, so you’re almost guaranteed at least one INT, with multi-INT downside. Basically, this is all a result of QBs airing it out with reckless abandon in Pro Bowls because there aren’t any real consequences. The bottom line is, if you have a choice, you should look to minimize your exposure to multiple quarterbacks at the Pro Bowl as they are really unpredictable. Plus, at best, your chosen QB will play only half a game. At worse, it’ll be just 1 or 2 series. No one knows. The only sure thing is that they’ll at least get some play time, so at least there’s a floor (as opposed to WRs who might get 0 targets or 0 receptions regardless of time in the game). If you want to play a Pro Bowl QB, here are my thoughts (in priority order):
Captain/MVP Options:
- Patrick Mahomes
Other Options:
- Kirk Cousins
- Justin Herbert
My thought process on these guys is easy. Patrick Mahomes is playing with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and Kirk Cousins is playing with Justin Jefferson. I also like the fact that Mahomes may have a few rushing yards in a game that the defense doesn’t really tackle. And I don’t mind Justin Herbert since it’s his first Pro Bowl appearance. Assuming he gets at least a quarter of play, first time Pro Bowlers tend to try to score.
Honestly, if you want to take a shot at any of these guys as your Captain/MVP, go for it. Just know that it’s pricey and you might not get much of a return on investment.
Running Backs
Average Total Rushing TDs (from RBs) – 0.33
Average Number of RBs with a receiving TD – 0.67
Honestly, there’s no reason to go further here. As you can see, RBs rarely if ever get rushing TDs in the Pro Bowl. And, at most, only one RB a game gets a receiving TD. There are a total of 6 RBs in the game. Care to gamble? I generally wouldn’t, not with these odds.
If you want to play a RB, I tend to like rookies and younger players who make the Pro Bowl over veterans, as they’re more likely to want to stay in the game. I also prefer RBs that catch passes, as at least you have the PPR upside:
Captain/MVP Options:
- None
Other Options:
- Jonathan Taylor
- Najee Harris
Wide Receivers
Average Number of WRs with a TD – 2.67
Average Number of WRs with a reception – 7.33
Average Number of TDs per WR with a reception – 0.36
All 8 WRs each year usually get at least one reception, but only 2.67 get a TD. So you’re essentially gambling on which WRs will get TDs, and you have a better than 70% chance of being dead wrong. If you want to slot in a Pro Bowl WR, I don’t hate the idea, but you should temper expectations and expect a low floor.
Captain/MVP Options:
- Justin Jefferson
Other Options:
- Tyreek Hill
- Deebo Samuel
- Hunter Renfrow
I like Justin Jefferson because he’s playing with Cousins and it’s his first Pro Bowl appearance. He made the 2021 Pro Bowl, but that was cancelled due to COVID, so this will be his first actual appearance. Deebo Samuel and Hunter Renfrow also have their first Pro Bowl, plus both had a breakout year where they were essentially the best weapon on their respective teams. I can see Jefferson, Samuel and Renfrow pushing to stay on the field. I like Tyreek Hill because he’s playing with Mahomes and it only takes one reception for him to take it to the house at any given moment, particularly in pro bowls were secondarys generally don’t get too aggressive.
Tight Ends
Average Number of TEs with a TD – 2
Average Number of TEs with a reception – 4
Average Number of TDs per TE with a reception – 0.50
Now here’s where I think is a good place to look for value. There are only 4 TEs in the game, 2 per side. That means there’s a good chance that they play around half of the game each. Historically, TEs tend to get a lot of attention in Pro Bowls, and you essentially have a 50% chance of getting a TD. Heck, TE Delanie Walker (who I suggested using in DFS in 2018) was one of the MVPs of the 2018 Pro Bowl with 4 receptions for 29 yards and 2 TDs. And every TE in the 2019 Pro Bowl had at least 3 receptions or a TD. So its actually worth using multiple TEs in your Pro Bowl lineup.
Captain/MVP Options:
- Mark Andrews
- Travis Kelce
- George Kittle
Other Options:
- Kyle Pitts
Defenses
Average Total Lost Fumbles per Game – 1.33
Average Number of Sacks per Game – 4.60
You can get some value here, as each game averages 5 INTs, 1.33 fumbles and 4.60 sacks. Even with the high score, you should get something, and both defenses are dirt cheap. So which should you choose?
Both sides got QB replacements. But Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Mac Jones tended to be more productive than Kylar Murray, Kirk Cousins and Russel Wilson as a whole, so I’d go with the AFC Defense (for both Cash Games and Tournaments), but have no problems with the NFC Defense as well. The current -1.5 spread doesn’t really impact my decision here. And if you feel particularly sassy, go ahead roster one of them as your Captain/MVP too. Why not?
Kickers
In the regular season, I hate using kickers, but in single game slates and particularly in the Pro Bowl, I love them. Why? Well, there’s only one kicker per side, so they’ll be in play the entire game. Over the last three Pro Bowls, there were 8 total field goal attempts and 17 extra points. Split that up among 6 kickers, that’s 1.33 FG and 5.67 XPs per kicker. Not too shabby! On Draft Kings, kickers are about HALF the price of the cheapest viable skill player, so it makes sense to play at least one of the kickers on Draft Kings if you need cap space. On FanDuel, they’re more expensive, so I don’t mind playing one, but definitely don’t mind skipping them entirely.
Sample Lineups
Remember, as per the regular season, these are JUST SAMPLES. Mix and match your lineups to minimize your risk!
FanDuel
Draft Kings
Yahoo
Good luck everyone and hope you win Pro Bowl DFS Cash! Come back next week for in depth Super Bowl LIV DFS picks!