Super Bowl LVI Preview & Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams

January 31, 2022

By Ha Kung Wong

February 13, 2022 – 6:30 PM ET

Rams favored by 3.5

Over/Under 49.5

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals had flashes in the beginning of the 2021 season, such as winning big against the Baltimore Ravens, but also had some serious hiccups like losing to the lowly Chicago Bears and New York Jets, leading to just a 5-4 record over the first half of the season. And they essentially mimicked that record in the back half going 5-3, though their regular season finale loss to the Browns was without most of their starters. That being said, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase got progressively more efficient on offense as the season went on, and the Bengals also found consistency as a bend-don’t-break defense.

Up to this season, The Bengals hadn’t won a playoff game since the 1990 season. The Bengals made the playoffs seven times between the 2005 and 2015 NFL seasons, but each time lost in the Wild Card round. Prior to that, the Bengals did make it to the Super Bowl twice, but lost both times to Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers.

1988 season: Lost Super Bowl XXIII to the San Francisco 49ers, 20-16
1981 season: Lost Super Bowl XVI to the San Francisco 49ers, 26-21

But now the Bengals have beat the odds my defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, upsetting the AFC No. 1-seeded Tennessee Titans 19-16 with a last second field goal, and upsetting the AFC No. 2-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium in overtime. Do they have one more trick up their sleeves for the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams? Let’s take a look at their regular season stats.

Regular Season Stats

Offense

Passing Yards Per Game: 259.0 (7th)

Rush Yards Per Game: 102.5 (22nd)

Points Per Game: 27.1 (Tied 7th)

Total Giveaways (INTs + FUML): 21 (12th)

Defense

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 248.4 (25th)

Rush Yards Allowed Per Games: 102.5 (5th)

Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1 (17th)

Total Takeaways (INTS + FUML): 21 (17th)

How the Bengals can win Super Bowl LVI

Joe Burrow has taken some enormous steps forward over the last two months. Over his last 4 games of the regular season, Burrow averaged 369 passing yards and 2.75 TDs with around an average completion percentage of 75%. Perhaps most importantly, Burrow also had zero interceptions and zero fumbles over that span. In the postseason, Burrow has averaged about 281 passing yards and 1.33 TDs, with just two total giveaways, against serious competition under significant pressure. His college running mate, Ja’Marr Chase is a big part of his late season success, as he’s exceeded 100 yards receiving in the last 2 games of the regular season that he played with Burrow as well as in 2 of 3 postseason games (and in the one game where he fell short on yards he managed to catch an important touchdown which started the rally win against the Chiefs).

Most impressive to me though is the Bengals defense, which doesn’t necessarily show up in the stat sheet. They’ve been able to make adjustments and clamp down as necessary against some tough offenses allowing only 19.7 points per game in the playoffs. And if you need an example, just look at the AFC Conference Championship game where they got hit hard over the first quarter and a half for 21 points on 3 straight possessions by the Chiefs and then managed to turn things around and allow 0 points for over a half of football until the field goal in the expiring seconds of regulation. And then to turn around after all that and intercept Patrick Mahomes in overtime, and thus avoid a repeat of what the Chiefs did to the Bills in the Divisional Round, is impressive. On top of that, the Bengals also have the most takeaways of any defense in the post season with 7 so far, which has led to a +5 turnover differential.

And if I’m going to discuss the Bengals strengths, how could I not discuss their rookie kicker, Evan McPherson, who made 84.8% of his field goal attempts in the regular season, 9 of 11 of which were from 50 yards plus. We all know how much pressure there is on kickers in game winning situations, but none of that bothers McPherson who made game winning kicks of 52 and 31 yards against the Titans and Chiefs in consecutive weeks and is a perfect 12 of 12 on field goal attempts in the post season. When you’re winning games by just one score like the Bengals have so far in the post season, those field goals are absolute gold.

If there’s anything to complain about, it’s the ground game as Joe Mixon is averaging just 3.65 yards per carry in the post season. The Bengals have a propensity to run the ball on 1st down, which is getting them into difficult 3rd and long positions more often than not. They’ll have to work on that to avoid falling behind the chains too often, as the Rams defense will be one of the better one’s they’ve faced in the post season (they’ve allowed the least yards and second least points per game in the postseason of any team that’s at least played 2 games).

Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams went all in to win now by getting Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller and now don’t have a first round draft pick until 2024. So in many ways, 2021 was a do-or-die season. And even before OBJ and Miller joined the Rams, they were responding well to the pressure starting 7-1 before suddenly losing 3 in a row to the Titans, 49ers and Packers, which called into question their ability to beat good teams. But they regained their footing, with OBJ stepping in for the injured Roberts Woods, and won 5 of their last 6 games to roll into their 25th playoff appearance. But even with making nearly half the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, the Rams have only made the Super Bowl 4 times and only won once.

2018 Season – Lost Super Bowl LIII to the New England Patriots, 13-3
2001 Season – Lost Super Bowl XXXVI to the New England Patriots, 20-17
1999 Season – Won Super Bowl XXXIV over the Tennessee Titans, 23-16
1979 Season – Lost Super Bowl XIV to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-19

The Rams managed to decimate the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card game, beat the current World Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what looks to be Tom Brady’s last game ever in the Divisional Round Playoffs and then outlast the feisty San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship to make their 5th Super Bowl. And, of course, the Rams couldn’t time their next appearance any better with the Kurt Warner-based movie “American Underdog” released in theaters over the holidays, since Warner was responsible for their one and only Super Bowl win. But will they be able to outlast the suddenly red-hot Cincinnati Bengals? Let’s take a look at their regular season stats.

Regular Season Stats

Offense

Passing Yards Per Game: 273.1 (5th)

Rush Yards Per Game: 99.0 (24th)

Points Per Game: 27.1 (Tied 7th)

Total Giveaways (INTs + FUML): 23 (Tied 17th)

Defense

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 241.7 (21st)

Rush Yards Allowed Per Games: 103.2 (6th)

Points Allowed Per Game: 21.9 (15th)

Total Takeaways (INTS + FUML): 25 (10th)

How the Rams can Win Super Bowl LVI

The Rams have been here before only a few years ago, but this time they have Matthew Stafford. And although Cooper Kupp has been good for years, he’s now transcended MVP status on the Rams after being paired with Stafford, having the second most regular season receiving yards EVER in the history of the NFL as well as the most yards from scrimmage of any player in the history of the NFL including the post season. And OBJ has been, perhaps surprisingly, an effective addition for the Rams that has so far avoided causing any distractions on or off the field. With Robert Woods going out due to injury, Van Jefferson also stepped up to be an effective target for Stafford. And with Cam Akers back after recovering from a preseason injury, which couldn’t have been better timing with Daryl Henderson out, the Rams are starting to threaten on the ground again as well. The one issue with the offense, though, is the amount of turnovers as the Rams offense has the most giveaways (5) of any team in the postseason.

The defense has also found a rhythm. As I noted above, The Rams defense has allowed the least yards and second least points per game in the postseason of any team that’s at least played 2 games. Their complete domination of the Arizona Cardinals was impressive, as was shutting down the current world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Jalen Ramsey have been as good as they’ve been all year, and actually quite a bit better against the pass in the post season than they were in the regular season.

That being said, there certainly are issues as they almost let Tom Brady mount a comeback in the Divisional Round Playoffs letting them score 24 unanswered points in the second half until Stafford managed to hit Kupp for 44 yards and Matt Gay mercifully put the game away with a field goal as time expired. And the performance in NFC Conference Championship game wasn’t all roses either, allowing Jimmy Garoppolo to hang 232 yards and 2 TDs on them and almost win the game after he only managed 131 passing yards and 0 TDs against the Packers.

Prediction

I have to say that this is one of the better Super Bowl matchups we’ve had in recent history. The Bengals have the fourth longest Super Bowl drought (behind just the Jets, Vikings and Dolphins) and went through 3 close games to get here, taking down the 1 and 2 seeded teams in the AFC. The Rams went all-in this year getting players to win-now, and Matthew Stafford beat the legendary TB12 and his world champion Bucs to finally get a chance at a Super Bowl after years of suffering in Detroit. Plus, the Rams have the opportunity to get rid of the embarrassing Super Bowl LIII aftertaste where they only managed to put up 3 points. On top of that, the Rams get de facto homefield advantage playing in their home stadium.

That being said, I think that Burrow and company stay hot, and the Bengals defense stays opportunistic, taking advantage of the Rams propensity to turn over the ball on offense. And I think that McPherson comes through again making the difference with some long field goals.

Bengals Win