Best Daily Fantasy Football Plays for Cash Games – Super Bowl LIV
By Ha Kung Wong Daily Fantasy Football
Twitter: @FBGarbageTime
So most of the NFL season is over and you already miss playing daily fantasy football. Well, stop worrying! Turns out, there’s one more chance to win DFS cash on FanDuel and Draft Kings with Super Bowl LIV!
All the Super Bowl lineups this year on most sites are of the “Single Game” or “Showdown” variety. This means slightly different things on FanDuel and Draft Kings.
- FanDuel – You have $60,000 total salary to fill 1 MVP and 4 regular spots. MVP scores 1.5x but does NOT cost more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $12,000.
- Draft Kings – You have $50,000 total salary to fill 1 Captain and 5 regular spots. Captain scores 1.5x but COSTS 1.5x more. The average amount you have to spend per player is $10,000. But since you have to pay more for your Captain, assume you’re paying around $15,000 for a Captain leaving you with around $7000 for each of the 5 remaining slots.
- Yahoo – It’s a regular slate including both the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl. I’ve included more explanation on this one below next to the Sample lineup. (You probably already entered this one last week with the advice I gave in my last column.)
Usually I focus on cash games, but since Single Game/Showdown contests have such a limited pool and obviously focus on only one game, there’s lots of variation in the potential outcome, meaning there are really no differences in looking at cash or GPP tournaments. I’ll give you my thoughts on who to play in DFS generally, will note if I like them for the Captain/MVP position, and will provide a few SAMPLE lineups.
One last note for all of you. As I ALWAYS do, I prefer to enter LOTS of $1 tourneys than a few $10 tourneys. The reason is that there’s no accounting for crazy people just randomly selecting players, and although they’re unlikely to win, you never know when they might catch lightening in a bottle and knock you out of the cash. So to minimize this randomness, I prefer to spread out all my lineups over more entries (i.e. I’d rather be in 10 x $5 tourneys than 5 x $10 tourneys). Just sayin, do what you prefer, but that’s why you’ll see me put in a lot of $1 tourneys.
OK, so let’s get started!
Super Bowl LIV
Honestly, this is all about narrative. If you think this will be a shootout, I’d favor both quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo) in your lineups. Even if you don’t think it’s going to be shootout, playing QBs in the Captain/MVP position is highly correlated with cashing as they have the most consistency in terms of opportunity.
I know that Jimmy G has been way short of exciting for DFS in the playoffs so far since the 49ers were able to lean so heavily on their ground game, but the Chiefs are a much more dynamic offense with way more weapons than either the Packers or the Vikings. So I don’t think Jimmy G is going to be sitting this one out and leaning only on Raheem Mostert (who I also really like anyway based on Tevin Coleman’s injury situation and based on the fact that the Chiefs have the 4th worst run defense in the league during the regular season per DVOA, also being bottom 4 at defending RB receptions). [UPDATE: Tevin Coleman practiced in full on Friday and will play, but I still like including Mostert in my lineups as he should get the lion’s share of carries]. I think we’ll see much more Deebo Samuel and George Kittle this time around, both of them essentially being Jimmy G’s favorite targets. Plus, we’ve seen Samuel get carries several times in the playoffs, which only adds to his floor. And if you’re looking for a punt, Kendrick Bourne doesn’t get lots of looks, but he gets plenty of redzone targets (3rd most on the 49ers within the 10 yard line behind only Kittle and Samuel, and he’s converted on all of them), so he’s worth thinking about, particularly for GPP.
Frankly, the 49ers have one of the best pass defenses in the league and allowed the least amount of passing yards per game to opposing QBs during the regular season. That being said, Mahomes is a totally different type of QB and I don’t see him getting completely shutdown. However, Mahomes actually does best against the blitz (believe it or not) and has thrown 16 of his 18 career interceptions against 4 pass rushers or less. Guess what? The 49ers don’t like to blitz and skew heavily to 4 pass rushers or less on first and second down, reserving most blitzes for 3rd down situations. With all this said, if the Chiefs want to win, it’s going to be on the back of Mahomes, so I absolutely think you need to fit him into your lineup along with at least one of his pass catchers (in this order of preference based on upside and value: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman). And don’t forget Damien Williams, as he’s getting essentially all the RB carries for the Chiefs and if there’s a weakness with the 49ers defense, it’s on the ground, as they’re “only” 11th against the run per DVOA and mid-pack in terms of rush yards allowed.
Finally, I actually like playing kickers in Single Game/Showdown cash lineups, as they have a decent floor. They don’t have much of a ceiling, but the floor is nice, particularly on Draft Kings where Robbie Gould and Harrison Butker are relatively very discounted.
If you’d like a more thorough breakdown of Super Bowl LIV, go ahead and check out our game preview, and give a listen to our most recent podcast.
Sample Lineups
Remember, as per the regular season, these are JUST SAMPLES. Mix and match your lineups to minimize your risk!
FanDuel
Draft Kings
Good luck everyone and hope you win Super Bowl LIV DFS Cash! Thanks for following along all season, and we’ll be back next season with more DFS advice!