Rogue One Was Rogue Fun: Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Wild Card Preview

By Ha Kung Wong 

Twitter: @FBGarbageTime

So for those who don’t know, because for some reason you don’t read my articles, I’m a HUGE Star Wars fan.

So it’s no surprise that I went to the opening night of the new “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” movie, and that I really enjoyed it, regardless of the CGI people and the mostly unnecessary story.  Of course, it did make me wonder why everyone “a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away” had European, and mostly British, accents.  Though it’s probably better than having Mon Mothma, leader of the Rebellion, start her talk with “How y’all dawin? That there Darth Vader’s heart is a thumpin’ gizzard, but that possum’s on the stump now that we git the Death Star plans!  That just dills my pickle!”  {Translation for non-Southerners: “Hello. Darth Vader is mean, but we’re OK since we have the Death Star plans. I like sour pickles.”  I might be wrong on that last one, I suck at languages.}.  But I digress.

The point is that Rogue One was an unnecessary, but fun movie for Star Wars fans.  For non-Star Wars fans, it probably was quite a bit less fun.  And in this analogy, for the upcoming Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Wild Card game, Steeler Nation are the Star Wars fans.  So you can probably guess who the non-Star Wars fans are.

AFC Wild Card Game

No. 6 Miami Dolphins @ No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday | 1:05 PM ET | CBS

Over/Under 47

Steelers favored by 10

Exiting Week 17, the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in very different places.

The Dolphins are coming off a 35-14 drubbing at the hands of the AFC East champion New England Patriots, while playing backup QB Matt Moore, having lost starter Ryan Tannehill to an ACL and MCL sprain suffered in Week 14.  This is not to say that Moore did poorly, as he had a respectable 205 yards, 2 TDs and only one INT, keeping the game close into the 3rd quarter.  But ultimately, the Patriots were too much, and with Jay Ajayi bottled up with only 79 total yards on 16 carries and 3 receptions, the Dolphins didn’t have enough offense to keep up.  With the loss, the Dolphins limp into the playoffs as the AFC 6th seed.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are coming off a surprisingly exciting OT win by their second stringers against the poor Cleveland Browns.  Sure, it’s just the Browns, but the Steelers have to thrilled that their offense minus Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown and Maurkice Pouncey can beat what arguably is an NFL-caliber team.  And with that, the Steelers roll into the playoffs as the AFC 3rd seed.

Round 1 – A New Hope (Yes, this is a Star Wars reference.)

Of course, this isn’t the first time these two teams met this season.  The Dolphins actually beat the Steelers at home 30 to 15, which kicked off Miami’s epic 6 game win streak that help propel them into the playoffs.  And how did Miami do it?

Well, first of all, they took care of the ball and had no turnovers.  Secondly, the Dolphins offense was clicking on all cylinders.  Sure, Ryan Tannehill was 24 of 32 for 252 yards and Jarvis Landry was 7 of 9 for 91 yards.  But what really did it was Jay Ajayi’s huge 204 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries.  There were concerns regarding Ajayi’s surgically repaired knee prior to the draft, but the Dolphins took a leap of faith anyway.  And with Lamar Miller traded away to the Texans in the offseason, and Arian Foster perpetually injured, Ajayi’s big step forward was in large part responsible for the Dolphins sudden found success after a 1-4 start to the season (their only previous win against the aforementioned sub-par Browns).

And how did the Steelers lose that regular season meeting?  Well, the better question is how DIDN’T they lose that game.  Roethlisberger was 19 of 34 for only 189 yards, a TD and 2 INTs that week for his lowest QBR of the season (4.1).  As a result, Ben’s top target, Antonio Brown, snagged just 4 of 8 for 39 yards.  And perhaps most problematic was Miami holding the usually dynamic Le’Veon Bell to just 108 total yards on 10 carries and 6 receptions.

It was a surprisingly dominant performance by the Dolphins, but it was long time ago now.  The question, of course, is whether they can do it again in the playoffs.

Round 2 – The Empire Strikes Back or Return of the Jedi?

Steelers Offense

At end of the regular season, the Steelers looked primed for the playoff run.  The offense, led by Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell, were completely locked in.  Even without playing in Week 17, Roethlisberger has the 5th most passing TDs per game (2.1), Brown has the 4th most receiving yards per game (85.6), 2nd most receiving TDs per game (0.8) and most receptions per game (7.1) and Bell has 2nd most rush yards per game (105.7), most carries per game (21.8), 2nd most receiving yards for a RB per game (51.3), and most receptions for a RB per game (6.1) in the NFL.  And interesting side note, this will be the first playoff game in which all three of Ben, Bell and Brown played together.

But it’s not just those guys, it’s the entire Steelers offense that’s hot.  In fact, the Steelers average the 7th most offensive yards per game (372.6), have the 4th best rushing offense and the 8th best passing offense per Football Outsiders DVOA.

Dolphins Defense

The Dolphins have their work cut out for them on defense, but what they have going for them is a revitalized Cameron Wake, who, at 34 and returning from a torn Achilles, finished with 11.5 sacks (tied for 6th most in the NFL), 24 quarterback hits and 5 fumbles forced.  And, of course, there’s the “passion/aggression” that DT Ndamukong Suh brings to the defense and the solid play from MLB Kiko Alonso, who’s tallied 115 combined tackles, 2 INTs and a forced fumble.

And in the secondary, Miami has been particularly opportunistic as they are tied for the 3rd most interceptions (16) in the NFL, plus they are the 4th best in the NFL at shutting down WR1s and WR2s per DVOA.  Of course, they also have CB Tony Lippett who struggled mightily, particularly against the Patriots in Week 17.  And, the Dolphins are the 2nd worst at defending against all WRs other than the WR1 and WR2 and are bottom 10 at defending the TE.  This means that Eli Rogers, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Ladarius Green (assuming he plays) may become huge factors in the Steelers offense.  We’ve already seen the impact that Green can have, as in Weeks 12-15 he totaled 15 receptions for 274 yards and a TD.  And finally, Miami is tied for allowing the 5th most passing TDs (30) in the NFL, something they’ll have to contain if they want a shot at a W.

Dolphins Offense

But containing Pittsburgh’s offense is only part of the problem.  The Dolphins will need to score, which as we saw in Week 17, can be challenging.  With Ryan Tannehill unlikely to return, Matt Moore will have to continue to be effective with an up-trending Jarvis Landry accompanied by DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.  Landry is averaging 80.6 yards per game over the last 5 with 2 TDs, garnering 22 targets over 3 games with Moore.  He’ll need a lot more of that to keep the Steelers defense honest.

But at the end of the day, it’ll be up to Jay Ajayi to move the chains on the ground, particularly with the Dolphins getting the 2nd least first downs (278) this season.  Ajayi had entered Week 6 as a relative unknown outside of Boise State football fans and draft hype pundits, but left as a Dolphins legend.  And he hasn’t stopped since, having more rush yards this season than Le’Veon Bell (albeit only by 4 yards), and the MOST rushing yards of any RB in the NFL since Week 6.

Steelers Defense

Of course, Ajayi ran wild only one week after the Steelers lost starting DE Cam Heyward.  Since then, the Steelers have adjusted, in large part due to the play of 2nd round 2014 draft pick, Stephon Tuitt.  In fact, Tuitt was named AFC Defensive Player of Week 11 with his 6 tackles and 2.5 sacks against the Browns.  The Steelers are tied for the 7th most sacks (38) for the 7th most lost yards (259) and are tied for allowing the 5th least passing TDs (20) this season.  And on the ground, the Steelers have the 9th best rush defense per DVOA in the NFL.

Keys to the Game

• If the Dolphins can’t keep Big Ben in check as they did in Week 6, it’ll be a long day.  The Dolphins will need to create pressure on Roethlisberger via Wake and Suh and force turnovers.
• Ajayi needs to find some running room.  In Week 6, Ajayi averaged a whopping 3.92 yards AFTER contact.  If the Steelers don’t wrap up, the Dolphins will be able to play ball control football and allow Moore a few shots downfield.
• The Steelers need to stack the box and force Moore to beat them over the air.  Landry, Parker and Still are a solid receiving core, but the Dolphins won’t be able to win a shootout against Ben, Bell and Brown.
• The Steelers should look to get Rogers and Green involved and take advantage of the fact that the Dolphins will aim to take Brown out of the game.
• Both teams need to watch their penalties.  The Dolphins have the 4th most penalties (125) for the 3rd most yards (1141), while the Steelers have the 8th most penalties (113) for the 6th most yards (1068) in the NFL.

Prediction

Dolphins put up a good fight, but are unable to play catchup against the Steelers high powered offense.

Steelers win, but Dolphins manage to cover the spread.

So until next time, hope y’all be happier than ol’ Blue layin’ on the porch chewin’ on a big ol’ catfish head!

Apparently, that’s supposed to be pretty happy.  But honestly, “chewin’ on a big ol’ catfish head” doesn’t sound all that great.  But then again, I don’t know “ol’ Blue” that well.