AFC South Week 10 Preview and Predictions

November 12, 2016

HOUSTON TEXANS (5-3) & JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6)

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Coming off a bye-week, the Houston Texans will face the division rival Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars, who are currently last in the AFC South, have lost their last three games to the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs.

Already into the second half of the season, the Jaguars will need nothing less than miracle to move up in this division and make it to the post-season, and it will need to start with a win in week 10 against the Houston Texans.

The Texans entered the bye-week with a victory over the Detroit Lions at home, but start off week 10 falling two places in the NFL power ranking, from 17 place to 19.

With the Jaguars potentially the easiest opponent the Texans will play in the remaining regular season schedule, the Texans will need to win week 10 and then defeat the Oakland Raiders (currently 3rd in the NFL Power Ranking) in week 11 if they want any chance at a post-season.

Is barely winning enough to take the Houston Texans to the Super Bowl? The biggest question for the Texans success is quarterback Brock Osweiler. In the beginning of the season, Osweiler looked to be the “real deal,” addressing the Texans quarterback problem. But as the season continued, Osweiler’s spark has dwindled into barely passable performances, and enters each game with a question mark looming over his head.

Brock Osweiler – AP Photo

Osweiler’s inability in the passing game affects the entire Texans team. The receiving core is only as good as their quarterback. More than halfway through the season, wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, won’t come anywhere close to his 2015 statistics (111 receptions out of 192 targets, 1521 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns). Currently, Hopkins has 40 receptions of 76 targets for 434 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Of course, there has been the addition of rookie wide receiver, Will Fuller, who is doubtful to play on Sunday, who has 21 receptions of 51 targets with 372 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

WR Rating is passer rating when targeting a specific WR.
League-worst:
Tavon Austin, 43.0
DeAndre Hopkins, 47.8
Brandon Marshall, 53.7

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 2, 2016

Osweiler’s mediocre play at quarterback is a story that many NFL teams are dealing with, placing the burden on the shoulders of the defense. The Texans defense haven’t been as productive as they’d hoped in the beginning of the season, having only 17 sacks, 3 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles. Linebacker, Whitney Mercilius, is the Texans current sack leader with 4.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

The Jaguars might not win games, but their defense is much improved. The Jaguars have allowed the 5th fewest passing yards per game (217.6), but the 9th most rushing yards. The Texans running back, Lamar Miller, has 637 rushing yards (the 6th most rushing yards in the league) but only 2 rushing touchdowns with 124 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. In week 9, the Jaguars held the Kansas City Chiefs to 19 points. Chiefs quarterback, Nick Foles, was held to 187 passing yards and a passing touchdown.

Unfortunately for Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, the Texans have allowed the second fewest passing yards per game (190.5), but have allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game (125.8). Free agent pick-up running back Chris Ivory had the best game of his career with the Jaguars in week 9 with a 109 rushing yards. Ivory, who’s suffered from medical issues during the beginning of the season, will look to have the bulk of the work in Week 10, accompanied by running back T.J. Yeldon.

Top 5 Most Athletic Plays (Week 9):
5. @ivory33
4. @AaronDonald97
3-1. ? https://t.co/Z74wh8Op4R

— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2016

In week 9, the Jaguars totaled 449 offensive yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. Now if they can only turn those yards into points.

What can we expect in Week 10?

Chris Ivory has a touchdown.
Marquise Lee has a touchdown.
Lamar Miller has a touchdown.

The Jacksonville Jaguars win.

TENNESSEE TITANS (4-5)

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Although the Tennessee Titans had a tough loss to the San Diego Chargers in week 9, the Titans went down swinging. In week 10, the Titans face the Green Bay Packers at home.

In week 9, the Packers lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 26-31, but the Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, threw for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns. In week 9, the Packers defense had 2 interceptions and 2 sacks, but that wasn’t enough to stop the Colts running back, Frank Gore, from scoring two rushing touchdowns, and a kick return for a touchdown by Jordon Todman.

How can the Tennessee Titans win week 10?

Titans quarterback, Marcus Mariota, needs to prioritize ball safety and avoid turnovers. Mariota currently has 12 turnovers, 8 interceptions and 7 fumbles, losing 4 of them. In week 9, there were 3 turnovers that turned into 17-points for the Titans.

Marcus Mariota – The Tennessean Photo

Other than improve ball safety, Mariota…keep doing what you’re doing. In week 9, Mariota had 313 yards, 3 passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against the Chargers. Of course, it wasn’t enough to win, but the Titans did put up 35-points against the Chargers.
A solid run game by running back, DeMarco Murray, is critical. Suffering from a toe injury in week 9, Murray rushed for only 51 yards on 14 carries. Murray has been the backbone of this Titans offense this season, having the second most rush yards in the NFL this season. The Packers have the top rush defense, allowing only 78.5 yards per game, but that didn’t stop the Colts from scoring 2 rushing touchdowns. With Derrick Henry probably out with a calf injury, Antonio Andrews will most likely be the back-up against the Packers.
Pressure on Aaron Rodgers is also critical. In week 9, the Indianapolis Colts started fast out of the gate, scoring 24-point in the first-half. The Packers rallied 16-points in the 2nd half of the game, while holding the Indianapolis Colts to 7-points. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough. The Titans have 23 sacks, but 12 came from two games against the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns. In week 9, the Titans had 1 sack and 5 hits on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, but was unable to force a turnover.
With an uncertain back field, The Titans 10th ranked rushing defense will need to make certain they stifle the ground game. The Colts have allowed the 11th most rushing yards in the league, but managed to hold the Packers to 116 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns.

What can we expect in Week 10?