AFC South Week 6 Preview and Predictions

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u 

HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2) & INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-3)

Indianapolis ColtsHouston Texans

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

In week 5, the Houston Texans lost to the Minnesota Vikings.  Not surprising.  Both teams are known to have relatively dominant defenses this season, but the Vikings offense outplayed the Texans, winning 31-13.

Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler managed a touchdown drive with less than five-minutes remaining in the game, but by then, the deficit was too large for the Texans to close.  Osweiler had his worse game of the season with a QBR of 12.2, 184 yards passing yards (75-yards were from the 4th quarter drive for a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins), a touchdown and an interception.  Only two quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than Osweiler (7) this season, New York Jets quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick (10), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback, Jameis Winston (8).  With Osweiler, the Texans rank 27th in passing yards per game (310.4) and 30th in scoring offense with an average of 16.4 points.

Brock Osweiler

Brock Osweiler

In week 6, the Texans will have to find a way out of their offensive woes.  Running back, Lamar Miller, will need to find a way to get the ground game going so the offense will not need to rely solely on Osweiler.  Miller has rushed for 371 yards this season, but has yet to score a touchdown.  The division rival Colts are an offense focused team and Andrew Luck, if left unchecked, is always a strong second half quarterback.  Whether it will be enough to win is another question, but letting the Colts hang around the first half of games is always a dangerous proposition.

The Texans defense have felt the loss of defensive end, J.J. Watt, having only 3 sacks since his absence. The Texans will need to put pressure on Andrew Luck if they want a chance at disrupting the Colts offense.  Theoretically, it shouldn’t be too hard, as the Colts offensive line has allowed 20 sacks this season.

What the Indianapolis Colts need to do:

  • The offense is the Colts strength.  The Colts need to score on their first possession and keep the pressure on throughout the game, not just the second half.
  • With Will Fuller out against the Colts, DeAndre Hopkins will be the greatest threat to the Colts offense.  They’ll need to make sure safety coverage is rolled to Hopkins to prevent big plays.

What the Houston Texans need to do:

  • Running back Lamar Miller needs provide a consistent run threat and find a way to score on the ground.
  • Brock Osweiler…welll, it appears that Osweiler might have reached his ceiling as an NFL quarterback.  The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the 3rd most offensive yards this season so far.  The Colts defense should be easier to handle than the Minnesota Vikings.  If Osweiler doesn’t step up today, as much as it may hurt the pocketbook, the Texans should consider a quarterback change.

What can we expect in Week 6?

  • Lamar Miller has a touchdown.
  • Philip Dorsett has a touchdown.

This game can go either way.  The pressure is on for both teams if they want to finish the season on top of the AFC South.  The Colts need a win not to fall too far behind.  And the Texans need a win to stay ahead of the curve.  In the end, the Houston Texans defense will outplay the Indianapolis Colts offense.

The Houston Texans win.

And just for fun:

TENNESSEE TITANS (2-3)

2015_Browns_helmetTennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a devastating 13-33 loss at home to the New England Patriots.  The Tennessee Titans are coming off a big 30-17 win against the Miami Dolphins.

This Sunday, the Tennessee Titans will host the winless Cleveland Browns.

So, it’s true what they say…life’s unfair when it comes to love and sports…okay maybe people don’t say that, but in this case, the football gods have been very unfair with the Cleveland Browns.  Not only was Johnny Manziel (Johnny Who?) a huge wart on the Browns roster a year ago, but the Browns have been riddled with injuries this season, losing every quarterback from week-to-week to injury.  Even Charlie Whitehurst, “Clipboard Jesus” himself, couldn’t survive the curse that looms over the Browns this season, leaving week 5 with a knee injury and leaving quarterback turned wide receiver turned quarterback again, Terrelle Pryor, to finish the game against the New England Patriots.  Come on…his nickname has “Jesus” in it.  And he still can’t avoid the Browns curse.

The “good news” for the Cleveland Browns is that Cody Kessler is healthy enough to start against the Titans in week 6.

That’s about all the “good news” the Browns are getting.  Cody Kessler has a 0-2 start and just 2 touchdowns in his rookie season so far, so I suppose that “good news” is all relative.

I don’t want to jinx the Tennessee Titans, but week 5 was what we expected from the Titans all season with the existing talent.  Quarterback, Marcus Mariota threw for 3 touchdowns and rushed for a 4th, no interceptions and no sacks.  Running back, DeMarco Murray rushed for 121 yards on 27 carries.  And, the Titans defense held Miami to 17 points, sacked Miami quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, 6-times and intercepted him twice.

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

The Titans have an opportunity to repeat week 6 against the Browns.  And, here’s what the Titans need to do:

  • Stop the Browns run game.  Kessler relies heavily on Isaiah Crowell and the run game to move the ball.  Holding the Browns rushing yards to 50 yards or less will force Kessler to throw giving the Titans secondary an opportunity to make a play.
  • Press corner coverage and safety coverage on wide receiver, Terrelle Pryor.  Pryor appears to be Kessler’s favorite target totaling 19 receptions on 25 targets, with tight end, Gary Barnidge a close second.
  • Pressure…Pressure…Pressure…on Cody Kessler.
  • Cleveland has allowed the 4th most total yards this season and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 29.6 points per game.  Mariota will need to avoid getting intercepted.  He already has 5 interceptions this season.

What can we expect in Week 6?

  • Gary Barnidge has a touchdown.
  • DeMarco Murray has a 100+ yards.

The Tennessee Titans win.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-3)

Jacksonville JaguarsChicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a bye-week after their first win of the season in week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts in London.  The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare to travel to Chicago to face the Bears.  And unlike the beginning of the Bears season, back-up quarterback, Brain Hoyer, has fit into the Chicago system better than he had in the Houston Texans.

brian-hoyer-bears

The Bears might not be winning, but they are looking like an actual football team.  Hoyer (who had 397 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 0 fumbles) and the Chicago Bears are coming off a narrow week 5 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, 23-29.  The difference maker in the Colts’ victory was the Bears missed 49-yard field goal in the 3rd quarter and a costly fumble by wide receiver, Cameron Meredith (his second), late in the 4th quarter, which was recovered by Indianapolis linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson, ultimately leading to a Colts field goal.

The Jaguars offense is still a work in progress.  They have the least offensive yards in the league, but score an average of 21 points per game.  Clearly, the fact that Blake Bortles has been intercepted 6-times and sacked 12-times also doesn’t help.

Blake Bortles

Blake Bortles

The Jacksonville defense has allowed 304.5 yards per game, among the fewest in the league.  But, what good are defensive stats with a 1-3 record?  The Jaguars hope to turn the tide with the return of cornerback Aaron Colvin from a four-game suspension due to violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.  Colvin started 15 games last season and finished with 73 tackles, four sacks, seven pass breakups and a forced fumble.

What the Jacksonville Jaguars need to watch-out for:

  • Simple short passes with the threat of the deep ball.  Hoyer has found success in simplicity.  The Bears do a good job moving the ball, now they will try to find a way to win.  For three consecutive weeks, Hoyer has thrown for over 300-yards without throwing an interception, completed 71.1 percent of his passes (91 of 128) for six total touchdowns in his 3-starts with the Bears, but has only won 1 game.  The Jaguars will have to find a away to contain short routes while keeping an eye on Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith downfield.

  • Rookie running back, Jordan Howard, has rushed for over 100-yards since taking over the starting running back position after an ankle injury to starting running back Jeremy Langford.  If the Titans don’t find a way to fill the gaps on defense, it could be a long day.
  • The Bears linebacker, Danny Trevathan (formerly of the Denver Broncos), is hoping to make a bigger impact this weekend after a rusty start in week 5 returning from a thumb injury.

What can we expect in Week 6?

  • Allen Robinson gets 100+ yards.
  • Jordan Howard gets a touchdown.

The Jacksonville Jaguars win.

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