AFC South Week 5 Preview and Predictions

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u 

HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)

Houston TexansMinnesota Vikings

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

This season has been filled with upsets, unpredictability and fantasy crushing weeks.

Consistent isn’t a word I’d use to describe this season.  Just when I think I know which team has it together, I get slapped in the face, and disappointment sets in.

Okay, so the Texans won week 4 against the Tennessee Titans without J.J. Watt.  But, I still don’t know what happened in week 3, shut-out by the New England Patriots.  You’re not supposed to judge a team by their worst game, but how can you not?  And to add insult to injury, the Buffalo Bills shut-out the New England Patriots at Foxbourgh in week 4, just one week later, making Jacoby Brissett look like a true third string quarterback.  Hey, coach Bill Belichick got so mad he smashed his surface pro on the side lines.

Bill O’Brien coached the Texans team to the post-season in 2015 (even though the wild card ended with a bitter taste in their mouths), and with big expectations, fans want to see the Texans reach the AFC Championship.  But if the Texans want to get to the post-season, they still have a lot of work ahead of them, and I’m not talking about their defense.

The Texans are still suffering from quarterback woes.  The bottom line, Brock Osweiler needs to get consistent.  Osweiler has 949 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions for the season in four weeks.  And unlike 2015, the Texans spent a lot of money to get Osweiler and it seems they will make him fit into the system one way or another.

The Texans have 11 sacks, 2 interceptions and 5 forced fumbles this season.  The Texans have allowed the 2nd least passing yards this season, 650 yards, but have allowed 501 rushing yards, the 6th most rushing yards allowed in the league.

Without J.J. Watt leading the defense, the offense will need to step up.

Brock Osweiler

Brock Osweiler

In week 4, the offense did just enough to win.  Osweiler started strong, with the first two offensive drives ending in touchdowns.  But it quickly went downhill with one poor decision after another.  The drives leading to half time consisted of a field goal, missed field goal, interception, punt, field goal.  In the second half, both offenses looked inept.  The Texans started the second half with an interception, and the only touchdown was a punt return by Will Fuller.  The Texans star wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, was held to only 4 yards by the Titans defense.  The Texans might find a way to win during the regular season, but with little consistency, the post season looks to be a mirage…again.

In week 5, the Texans face the 4-0, Minnesota Vikings.  Both are strong defensive teams, but the Vikings are currently ranked the second best defense in the league, allowing only 12.5 points per game with the 8th least rushing yards (330) and the 9th least passing yards (894) in the league this year.

In week 4, the Vikings defense limited the New York Giants to 10 points.  Cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, who snagged his third career interception, held Odell Beckham Jr. to only 23 yards.

The Vikings defense has totaled 15 sacks, 6 interceptions (and are 1 out of only 8 teams who have a pick 6 this year) and 5 forced fumbles (1-out-of-8 teams who have scored a defensive touchdown from a forced fumble).

The Texans are looking at a tough match-up.  Sam Bradford might be new to the Vikings system, but he’s been faring the change well.  Bradford has thrown for 719 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions in his three starts with the Vikings.  And he’s connected with tight end, Kyle Rudolph, with a touchdown in 3 consecutive weeks.

What can we expect in Week 5?

  • The Texans are playing at Minnesota.  The inconsistency of the Texans will send them back home with a loss.
  • The Vikings get a defensive touchdown.

The Minnesota Vikings win.

And on a side note, in case you’re curious:

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Bye-Week

It’s uncertain why the Jacksonville Jaguars faltered so badly in week 2 against the San Diego Chargers.  Although they lost to the Green Bay Packers in week 1 and the Baltimore Ravens in week 3, the games were close and both offense and defense showed vast improvement from the previous season.  In week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts, the Jaguars had 2 touchdowns and a field goal in the first half, while the Jaguars defense held the Colts to only 2 field goals.  The Jaguars offense looked the best it’s been all season, though that’s not saying a lot.  Ultimately, it was this strong effort that allowed the Jaguars to leave London with their first win of the season.

Blake Bortles

Blake Bortles

Don’t let the Jaguars win, 30-27, mislead you.  The Jaguars still have a long way to go in becoming a cohesive team.   After a great first half, the Jaguars reverted backwards, allowing the Colts to score 21 points in a single quarter.

Regardless, there’s no denying the improvement in the Jaguars defense.  The addition of the young rookies is paying off.  Linebacker, Myles Jack, started for the first time this season.  Defensive end, Yannick Ngakoue, a third-round pick, had a sack and a forced fumble for the third game in a row, and in week 4, he had an interception.  The defense sacked quarterback, Andrew Luck, 6 times, although the defense seemed out-played for most of the fourth quarter.  They held the Colts when it counted.

The Jaguars are entering a bye-week and will need the time to rest and re-evaluate what they’ve been doing wrong including with some sloppy execution, leading to 41 total penalties for a loss of 392 yards over the past four weeks.

TENNESSEE TITANS (1-3)

Tennessee TitansMiami Dolphin

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota and his inability to win games this season is looking to be a disappointment.  Mariota has 5 interceptions (plus two lost fumbles), and 4 touchdowns this season.  And in week 4, he missed 10 of 19 passes of 10 yards or fewer.

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

The addition of DeMarco Murray has given this Titans offense a significant boost in the run game with 340 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns this season (2 of the 3 touchdowns were scored in week 4 against the Texans).  Unfortunately, there has been a major decline in the pass game.  In week 4, Mariota threw for 202 yards and no passing touchdowns.  With the Texans defense able to box-out the Titans top scorer, Delanie Walker, the pass game seemed non-existent.

In week 5, the Titans will face off against the Miami Dolphins (1-3).

The Dolphins have run into some problems of their own.  The Dolphins quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, has totaled 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season.  And in week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Tannehill was held to 189 passing yards, 1 touchdown and a lost fumble, while their rush offense was held to only 62 yards.  In a loss, the Dolphins scored 7 points in the first quarter against the Bengals and remained scoreless in the following three quarters.

Luckily for the Titans, the Dolphins are among the bottom of the league against the pass.  This might be the opportunity the Titans offense needs to gain some confidence in the pass game and jump-start the rest of the season.

What can we expect in Week 5?

  • DeMarco Murray will have a heavy work load.
  • Rishard Matthews has a touchdown.
  • Delanie Walker has a touchdown.

The Tennessee Titans win.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-3)

Chicago BearsIndianapolis Colts

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars put this division into a very interesting situation.  A three-way-tie.

The Jaguars are on a bye-week.  The Tennessee Titans are looking to win against Miami Dolphins.  And a victory against the Chicago Bears will keep this AFC South division in a tight race.

In week 4, the Chicago Bears had their first victory of the season against the Detroit Lions with Brian Hoyer under center.  Although there is some discussion whether quarterback Jay Cutler will be able to start in Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts, it’s likely that Hoyer will start.  And, there doesn’t seem to be any rush in bringing Cutler back.  Hoyer is no stranger to the Indianapolis Colts.  And while with the Bears, Hoyer has passed for 697 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  Hoyer might not be the long-term solution at quarterback for the Chicago Bears, but the Bears need to ride the positive momentum Hoyer has built into the upcoming games against Indianapolis.  The ground game will be as important as the pass for the Bears offense.  In week 4, rookie Jordan Howard had a breakout game with 23 carries for a 111 yards.

Andrew Luck - Getty Images

Andrew Luck – Getty Images

The Colts’ rally-from-behind strategy has lost them 3 games this season.  Good teams don’t make the same mistakes; they fix problems and move on.  But the Colts have been plagued by slow starts, missed tackles, dropped passes and penalties.  If they want any chance at a win, they will need to score fast and stay ahead.  The strength of the front line will be the major factor for Andrew Luck and the Colts offense.  Luck has been sacked 15 times, the most sacked quarterback in the league this year.

The Bears have allowed the 8th least passing yards this season (840).  So even if the Colts offensive line holds, giving Luck some time, the result may not be positive.  With wide receiver Donte Moncrief still out, the tight end position nearly non-existent, and the running game as inconsistent as the pass, the Colts are looking at another tough struggle.

What can we expect in Week 5?

  • The Colts have the advantage playing at home.
  • Jordan Howard has his first NFL touchdown.

The Chicago Bears win.

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