AFC South Week 1 Preview & Predictions

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u 

In week 1, the AFC South all have one common advantage … home games.  But will it matter?  Let’s take a look.

HOUSTON TEXANS (0-0)

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans

Houston Texans – Looking to be 1-0.

The Texans offense is totally different in 2016.  They now have quarterback Brock Osweiler, and fans are anxious to see how he does with this Texans’ offense in the regular season.  And with an injured Bears’ secondary, this might be just what the Texans’ are looking to exploit.

Like many teams trying to rebuild, the Texans have a young, ready and able receiving core led by 4th year veteran DeAndre Hopkins.  Hopkins is the best receiver on either team and you can expect Hopkins will work extra hard to be the playmaker he’s known to be for this Texans offense.  In the back field, there will be no Arian Foster, now playing for the Miami Dolphins.  Instead, ex-Miami Dolphin, Lamar Miller, a 5th year veteran, will be wearing navy and red, and hoping to have the best season of his career.  Miller might just get his wish for a breakout season with the Texans run-heavy offense coupled with an unproven Osweiler behind center.  The Texans have tried hard to build their front line.  Unfortunately, drafted rookie Nick Martin is out for the season.

Source: #Texans center Nick Martin recently underwent ankle surgery from Dr. Robert Anderson in NC. He’s expected to miss the 2016 season.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 25, 2016

Former Kansas City Chief guard, Jeff Allen, has been signed to play along aside 3rd year veteran guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, along with tackle Duane Brown and Derek Newton.

The Texans’ offense have intriguing potential and fans are looking forward to a team better than 9-7.  A victory against the Bears should give the Texans confidence entering into week 2.

The Texans defense ranked 3rd in 2015, allowing only 4963 total yards and 19.6 points per game.   This season shouldn’t be much different for these defensive super-stars.  And, the Chicago Bears will be getting a hard taste of this defense on Sunday.

J.J. Watt hasn’t missed a game in his five year NFL career and he’s not going to start now.

It's Time. pic.twitter.com/znUQN9EkK5

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) September 5, 2016

There was a question whether Watt would return after undergoing two surgical procedures this offseason – in January to have five muscles repaired and both of his lower abs reattached, and in July to repair a herniated disk in his back.

Watt is no stranger to taking the field with injury.  In 2015, he played with a broken hand, groin injury and back injury.  And although Watt has been cleared for Sunday’s game against the Bears, you can be certain that Watt (whether he likes it or not) will be on a limited play count to ensure a full recovery for the remainder of the season.

Even without Watt on the field, the Texans’ defense should be able to hold the Bears offense to minimal points.

Chicago Bears – Bear down…so down goes the Bears.

The Chicago Bears are looking at a rough road ahead of them in the 2016 season.  Last years they finished 4th in the NFC North division with a 6-10 record.  With the Minnesota Vikings losing Teddy Bridgewater for the season, there’s a good chance the Bears won’t be 4th in their division, but whether they can make it to the post season is another story.

Facing off with the Texans week 1 won’t help.

You can expect the Texans offense will look to take advantage of the Bears defense.  The team’s top three cornerbacks, Tracy Porter (concussion), Kyle Fuller (knee) and Bryce Callahan (hamstring) are all dealing with injuries, and even if they take the field on Sunday, it’s doubtfully they will be 100 percent, allowing Brock Osweiler and his receivers opportunity downfield.  If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bears defense allowed 120.9 rushing yards per game in 2015, tying for 22nd for total rushing yards allowed.

Unfortunately, trouble lies on both sides of the line for the Bears.  Jay Cutler had 3659 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and 6 fumbles.  Not terrible.  The good news, Jay Cutler is an 11-year veteran, compared to Brock Osweiler’s 21 games played.  The bad news, Jay Cutler and the offense will be facing the Texans’ defense.

The Bears are looking at a tough battle ahead of them.  The last time these two teams met was in week 10 in 2012.  The Bears lost 6-13 at Solider Field.

What can we expect in WEEK 1:

• Lamar Miller rushes for just under 100 rushing yards and a touchdown.
• Brock Osweiler throws for one touchdowns.
• Jeremy Langford has a rushing touchdown.

The Houston Texans win.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-0)

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts – Riddled with injury…they need some Luck.

He’s back…maybe.  Andrew Luck is mostly healthy and ready to start the new season.  Although Luck looked good during in the pre-season, he was listed with a shoulder injury on the Colts roster.  Luck hasn’t played a regular season game since week 9 of last year after suffering from a lacerated kidney and a partially torn abdominal muscle.   So, this Sunday should be the real test for this quarterback.

Luck’s shoulder injury isn’t the only concern for this team.  Entering into week 1, the Colts secondary is looking bleak.  Cornerback Vontae Davis is out with ligament damage in his ankle and is expected to miss at least a month.  Patrick Robinson, formally a San Diego Charger, is out with a groin injury.  Safety Clayton Geathers is recovering from off-season foot surgery.  This is the opportunity that the Detroit Lions need.

The defensive injuries will be a major problem for a defense that ranked 26th in the league in 2015, allowing 379.1 yards per game and 25.5 points per game.

If that isn’t bad enough, during the preseason, the offensive line had trouble finding consistency and unity.  They struggled to protect Luck and had trouble opening up large running lanes for the running backs, resulting in a nonexistent ground game.

If these problems can’t be fixed, the Colts are looking at another season without a post-season.

Luckily for the Colts, the Lions have their own problems.

Detroit Lions – Hear them roar?

Matthew Stafford is entering his 8th season in the NFL.  In 2015, Stafford threw for 4262 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, but the Lions ended the season with a 7-9 record, probably do to the 13 interceptions and 44 sacks.  This might be the reason why many of us don’t remember much about the Lions in 2015.  They were a forgettable team in the NFC North, even with the Chicago Bears finishing 4th in the same division.

The Lions are a passing offense, averaging about thirty pass attempts per game.  This season will test Stafford’s abilities as a quarterback as he works without his go-to receiver, Calvin (Megatron) Johnson, who retired in the off-season.  Stafford will now have to rely on veterans Golden Tate (813 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns), who is currently limited with ankle injury, Marvin Jones, formally a Cincinnati Bengal (816 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns), and Anquan Boldin, formally a San Francisco 49er (789 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns).  Stafford will also need to rely on tight end, Eric Ebron, who had 537 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, as well as strengthen their running game to alleviate some of the pressure off Stafford.

The Lions are hoping to be relevant again, and a victory in week 1, against a powerhouse team of the AFC South, Indianapolis Colts, will be the impact they are looking for.

With trouble and uncertainty for both teams, whichever team wants it the most is primed to win.

What can we expect in WEEK 1:

• Donte Moncrief has 1 touchdown

Detroit Lions wins

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-0)

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars – An underrated team.

Week 1 is what Jaguar fans have been waiting for.  It’s the beginning of the regular season and they want to see a ‘W’…but will that be possible, facing off against the Green Bay Packers?

Most experts agree that the Green Bay Packers are the favorite.

That might be true.  But, who doesn’t love a good underdog.  And, the Jacksonville Jaguars are great underdogs, looking for a great story.

There are a lot of positive factors working for the Jaguars this season.  Quarterback Blake Bortles is healthy.  The wide receiving core has remained consistent with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas.  The Jaguars seem to have finally got their running game going with an improved T.J Yeldon, entering his second year, and the addition of Chris Ivory, formally New York Jets.  The duo looked to be a force in the pre-season, each having their strengths.  On the defense, they’ve strengthened their secondary and their front line by drafting cornerback Jalen Ramsey and bringing in Malik Jackson, former Denver Bronco, respectively.

But, Bortles was healthy in 2015.  And, as I mentioned, the wide receiving core has remained consistent.  And, running back, Chris Ivory is currently limited for Sunday’s game with a calf injury.

In 2014, the Jaguars, lead by rookie Bortles, was the league’s worst with -2.1 adjusted net yards per attempt.  Which means he had 2.1 less yards per attempt than the league average.  Last year, the Jaguars, led by a more experienced Bortles, improved to within the league average for adjusted net yards per attempt.  Following the trend, Bortles is looking only to improve.

The Packers had a weak rushing defense in 2015, ranked 21st, allowing 119.1 yards per game.  T.J. Yeldon will get most of the workload with Ivory limited.  The Jaguars run-game will surely dictate whether the Jaguars keep the game close on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers – Rodgers and Nelson duo is back.

Whether you are a fan or not, there is an association when you think of the Green Bay Packers…a damn good football team.

In 2015, the Packers finished 2nd in the NFC North with a 10-6 record, won the Wildcard playoffs against the Washington Redskins (35-18) and then lost the Divisional playoffs to the Arizona Cardinals (20-16 in OT).

In 2014, the Packers finished 1st in the NFC North with a 12-4 record, won the Divisional playoffs against the Dallas Cowboys (26-21) and then lost the NFC Championship to the Seattle Seahawks (22-18 in OT).

The Packers and the Jaguars aren’t rivals in any sense of the word.  The Jaguars are AFC.  The Packers are NFC.  They’ve never faced each other in the Superbowl.  These two teams have played each other 5 times, and the Packers have won 3-2 games.

Let’s take a step back in the time machine.  The last time these two teams met was in 2012, week 8, and the Packers won 24-15.  The last time the Jaguars won, in 2008 (20-16), Aaron Rodgers was quarterback for the Packers and finished the season with a 6-10 record.  David Garrard was the quarterback for the Jaguars and finished the season with a 5-11 record.

Coming back to the present, Aaron Rodgers is considered one of the top veteran quarterbacks in the league.  The Packers history with Aaron Rodgers speaks for itself.  And with the return of wide-receiver Jory Nelson, after missing all of last season with a preseason injury, and a new and improved Eddie Lacy, thanks to P-90X, the Packers are looking strong.

As for the defense, the Packers defense ranked 15th in the league in 2015 allowing 346.7 yards per game and 20.2 points per game.  Significantly better than the Jacksonville Jaguars who was ranked 24th in 2015, allowing 375 yards per game and 28 points per game.

Yes, the Jaguars team is improved from their previous season, but the true test to the additions will be Sunday.

What can we expect in WEEK 1?

• Jordy Nelson has a touchdown.
• Eddie Lacy has a touchdown.

Sorry Jaguars…I love you…but the Green Bay Packers win.

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-0)

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans – The art of the running backs.

Week 1 could be a confidence booster or a confidence breaker for the Titans, depending on whether they win or lose.

The Titans aren’t looking to repeat last year’s 3-13 performance.

The good news, and there’s a lot of it for the Titans.

The Titans have a healthy Marcus Mariota returning with his rookie year under his belt.  Before leaving last season with an injury, Mariota played 12 games in the season with a 62.2% completion percentage, 2818 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 8 fumbles.

The quarterback situation doesn’t seem so definite in Minnesota.  With Teddy Bridgewater out for the season, the Vikings offered their 2017 first-round draft pick to the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback for Sam Bradford.  Although Bradford did perform better than experts had expected in the 2015 season, 65% completion percentage, 3725 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 6 fumbles.  Considering that the Vikings offense is built around deep drops and deep passes, Sam Bradford will more than likely find the system difficult to manage with only a week experience within the system.  Option two, Shaun Hill.

After undergoing an MRI, it was determined Teddy Bridgewater has a complete ACL tear and is out for the 2016 season. pic.twitter.com/DA5cPovwM7

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 31, 2016

The Titans have recognized the importance of a backfield this offseason, drafting Derrick Henry and signing DeMarco Murray.  Luckily for the Titans, the running game is the weak point in the Vikings defense.  If Mariota can move the ball periodically with a completed pass to keep the Vikings defense guessing, they can leave the scoring to the run play.

The Vikings defense might be a strength, but their front offensive line is another story.  During the preseason, the line quickly crumbled.  Whoever is in the backfield, they won’t have much time to maneuver.  Quick decision making and ball release will be a necessity.

The Titans defense will make certain to take advantage of either Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill by rushing the line.

Minnesota Vikings – The empire has no emperor.

The Vikings might not have a ready quarterback for week one, but as long as they are marginally adequate managing the ball, the Vikings still have a fighting chance with Adrian Peterson in the backfield and the Vikings defense.

Remind you of any other week 1 team?  Yup, the Denver Broncos did the same thing on Thursday night’s game against the Carolina Panthers.  With inexperienced quarterback Trevor Siemian behind center, running back C.J. Anderson and full back, Andy Janovich did the scoring, while the Broncos defense kept the game close.

You can be certain that the Titans will be ready, but being ready and actually performing are two entirely different things.  The Vikings defense were ranked 5th in points allowed per game, allowing an average of 18.9 points per game.   If the Viking defense can shut down Delanie Walker, the Titans could run into some trouble.

What can we expect in week 1?

• This game will be decided by 3 points or less.
• There will be a defensive touchdown.
• Tajae Sharp will have a touchdown.

The Tennessee Titans win.