2016 NFL Draft – AFC South – A Colt is a Horse, Of Course, Of Course…and No One Can Outplay Us

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u 

NUMBER 18 PICK: Indianapolis Colts

Sports are generally games of skill.  But, there’s no doubting that luck (and, I’m not referring to Andrew Luck) often plays a small factor in winning championships.  Don’t believe me?  Just think about your March Madness Brackets.

Villanova beat North Carolina, a 1-seeded team with 5 prospects entering the 2016 NBA draft.

If that doesn’t convince you, how about Super Bowl 50?

The Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl with a great defense, a below average offense and undoubtable some fairy dust, but we’ll just call it “luck.”  To their advantage, the Broncos were no strangers to the Super Bowl atmosphere.  The same thing couldn’t be said about the Carolina Panthers.

Five years after drafting Cam Newton in the first round, the Panthers showed themselves to be a well-rounded team on offense and defense throughout the season.  After winning fifteen of sixteen games in the regular season, the Carolina Panthers were the favorites to win Super Bowl 50.

Unfortunately, being great throughout the season doesn’t guarantee a Super Bowl victory.

Ultimately, the Panthers ended their season with the only loss that really matters.  A Super Bowl loss.

So, what about the Indianapolis Colts?  They actually have “Luck.”  Unfortunately, whatever “luck” they had during the 2015 season, it was anything but good.

So what will help the Colts in the 2016 season?

The Offense

Indianapolis was ranked 30 in offense in 2015.  It’s not too surprising since quarterback Andrew Luck missed seven games in the latter half of the season due to a lacerated kidney.  Forty-year-old veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck took over for the remainder of the season, ultimately winning 6 of 10 games (2 of the wins were earlier in the season when Luck was also out due to injury).

Skill position check list:

Quarterback: check

Andrew Luck is in the process of negotiating a new contract.  Yet, there’s been no information since the tweet.  I think it’s safe to assume, though, that Luck will be in a Colts uniform in the fall and for significantly longer than that.

Colts owner, Jim Irsay, says Andrew Luck's contract extension will be a "shocking" number. pic.twitter.com/GoeeWqXpUh

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) February 12, 2016

Coach Chuck Pagano’s biggest concern for the upcoming season is changing Luck’s playing style.

“He’s a competitive guy.  He plays the position like a linebacker, with a linebacker’s mentality.”

Pagano noted that keeping Luck healthy was a priority.

“Get him healthy, keep him healthy, keep him protected.”

Tight End: check

Receivers: check

Currently, the Colts have T.Y. Hilton (drafted 2012 in the 3rd round), Donte Moncrief (drafted 2014 in the 3rd round), and Phillip Dorsett (drafted 2015 in the 1st round).

The Colts have had some good luck with 3rd round wide receiver draft picks, they might want to continue with another 3rd round draft pick in 2016.  From the way they are going, its certain to be another diamond in the ruff.

• Sterling Shepard – Oklahoma – Potential 2nd or 3rd round pick

Shepard lacks the height (5’10”) and size of a desired wide receiver, but has a respectable vertical.  His hand size is respectable (9 & 3/4”).  Shepard doesn’t have significant downfield speed, but he does have quick breaks and solid route running.

• Kolby Listenbee – TCU – Potential 3rd or 4th round pick

Kolby Listenbee has height (6’), but a thin frame to be an effective blocker.  His hands are on the smaller side (8 & 1/4”), but he’s been reliable catching passes in college.  Listenbee has good ball tracking ability, good late adjustments on deep throws, the ability to adjust well to low throws and good second gear pickup.  And did I mention that Listenbee played opposite of Josh Doctson?  He could a real value later in the draft as compared to where Doctson is being drafted.

• Aaron Burbridge – Michigan State – Potential 3rd or 4th round pick

Aaron Burbridge has good height (6’) and a good frame and physical athleticism to match opponents.  He is good at tracking the deep ball, good in-air athleticism to make the hard to catch passes and is able to reliably secure low throws.  Burbridge’s hands run on the smaller side (8 & 1/4”) and he sometimes shows difficulty holding onto the ball consistently.  Unfortunately, Burbridge lacks the speed needed to break away from the secondary, but he could still be a solid contributor as a big athletic target.

Running Back: check?

Frank Gore is a twelve-year veteran in the league, originally drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in the 3rd round.  At 32 years old, Gore put up 967 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2015.  His productivity has slightly slipped since his time with the 49ers, but not enough to put him out to pasture.  With Gore turning 33 this year, the Colts might want to consider picking up a running back to learn from one of the best.

• C.J. Prosise – Norte Dame – Potential 3rd or 4th round pick

C.J. Prosise has the height (6’), physical build and athleticism for the NFL.  He is an effective runner between tackles, has good football intelligence (although can stand to increase the speed in zone reads), has the ability to elude defenders in open field and strength and size to beat, and pass through lessor tackles.  If he can had in the fourth round, he could be a real value and has potential to the future primary ball handler for the Colts.

The Defense:

The Indianapolis defense in 2015 ranked 13th overall.

To sum up the 2015 season, the defense had 35 sacks, was 11th in tackles (1053), 7th in interceptions (17), and had 8 fumble recoveries and 5 defensive touchdowns.

Both offense and defense can use some tweaking.  The Colts can use a defensive end to strengthen the front line and investing in the defensive secondary might also be worthwhile when examining the age, experience and ability currently on the Colts depth chart.

However, there is always one need greater than another.

In the 2016 draft, with the 18th pick, the Indianapolis Colts should pick an offensive tackle.

Let’s face it, the Colts and Andrew Luck learned a valuable lesson last year.  The value of Luck.  To make certain that Luck doesn’t need to use his body to absorb tackles, the logical pick would be to give Luck the protection he needs to remain healthy for the 2016 season.

With the assumption that Laremy Tunsil (OT) from Ole Miss is drafted before the 18th pick, the Colts should look at the remaining first round potential offensive tackles.

Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame)

The Colts seem to have the left side under control.  It’s the right side that is in need of some attention.  Ronnie Stanley, being a left offensive tackle, might need to adjust to the right side.  Or maybe, some re-arranging might be better for the offensive line.  Stanley is a good size (6’6” and 312 pounds) for the position, athletic and quick.  His long arms (35 & 5/8”) and quick feet round out his physical attributes.  Stanley shows a comfortable stance on the line, has easy movement in the position, quickness to mirror defenders and his long arms allow him to lock up the defenders.  In addition, Stanley has good awareness and shows good adjustment on the line.

Unfortunately, Stanley is quick but not explosive off the line and has the with the ability to get pushed back due to his wide feet placement.  He has a tendency not to follow through on blocks or pining defenders.  As mentioned, feet placement need improvement, improvement off the line and inconsistent in pass-blocking. But, luckily Stanley’s weaknesses in his techniques can be fixed with proper coaching.

Jack Conklin (Michigan State)

Jack Conklin has the proven versatility to be on both the left and right sides of the line, which is a good opportunity for the Colts to take advantage.  He possesses height (6’6”) and size (308 lbs) for the position, good hand size and arm length (35”) to push away and secure defenders, as well as good arm extension.  Although his average speed might hinder performance, Conklin has a strong initial contact and impressive power.  Conklin does a good job securing defenders, technically sound in pass protection with wide base and the ability to mirror defenders.

Conklin needs improvement in his feet technique and position, as well as power and speed after initial contact, but those are all things that can be addressed with coaching and experience.

***

The Colts were established in 1953, then known as the Baltimore Colts until 1983.  Regardless, the Colts are the oldest team in the AFC South Division.  In 1985, the team relocated to Indianapolis and became the Indianapolis Colts of the AFC East Division.  Since moving to the AFC South, the Colts have been AFC South Divisional Champions nine times.  In addition, the Colts were AFC Conference Champions in 2006 and 2009, and Super Bowl Champions in 1970 and 2006 XLl (as part of the AFC South) with Peyton Manning as quarterback.

The Colts will surely seek to continue the tradition of staying on top of the AFC South.  And although many of the pieces are in place, what they do in the upcoming draft will certainly impact their chances.