NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs Preview & Prediction

By Ha Kung Wong 

Twitter: @FBGarbageTime

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay PackersArizona Cardinal

Saturday – 8:15 PM ET 

Arizona is favored by 7

Last time the Cardinals met the Packers, it was in Week 16, where the Cardinals routed the Packers 38-8.  Reportedly, the Cardinals only had to implement 40% of their playbook that week to take care of the Pack, so they have plenty left that that the Packers can’t plan for.  But Rodgers looked much improved over the last 3 quarters of the Wild Card showdown against the Redskins, so this might be a different team.

Keys for Packers

The Packers are coming in off probably one of their most impressive performances of the year. Aaron Rodgers, after starting with only 2 completions over the first quarter and a half, and a sack in his own endzone, went out to lead five consecutive scoring drives to take the Wild Card game away from home.  Randall Cobb has been a collossal disappointment this year with Jordy Nelson out, but showed some versatility in the backfield running the ball (5 carries for 24 yards) as well as improved confidence catching the ball catching his first TD since Week 12 in late November.  DeVante Adams stepped with a TD of his own, but looks to be out for the Division Round with an MCL sprain.

Didn’t matter though, as this offense looked revitalized even after he left the field.

Both Eddie Lacy and James Starks were effective moving the ball, as they both took turns vulturing each others TDs.  Lacy is dealing with a rib injury, but he mostly played effectively through it last weekend.

The Packers may be rolling, but they’re rolling into one of the best defenses and one of the best offenses in the NFL this week.  The Cardinals defense is tied for allowing the 7th least passing yards per game (230), having the 4th most INTs (19) and allowing the 6th least rushing yards per game (91.3) this season.  And the Cardinals have already shutdown the Pack once this year limiting them to just 8 points.  Unfortunately, the Packers offensive line still allowed the 5th most sacks to opposing defenses (47), so Rodgers will have to decisive with the ball to avoid negative yardage.

Aaron Rodgers - ESPN Photo

Aaron Rodgers – ESPN Photo

On the plus side, Green Bay’s defense has stepped up of late, particularly in the Wild Card game where they stopped Washington at the half yard line, pushing them back and ultimately forcing a FG after DeSean Jackson’s TD was taken off the board. And Green Bay has still allowed the 6th least passing yards per game (227.6) and tied for 7th most total sacks (43) this season.

If Rodgers continues to be dialed in, and Lacy and Starks remain effective, there’s a chance here that the Packers can pull this out and move on to the conference championship.

Keys for the Cardinals

What is it about older, seemingly end-of-line QBs moving to Arizona and suddenly becoming MVP candidates?  We saw it with Kurt Warner several years ago, and now we see it with Carson Palmer.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer

Palmer has been lights out this season, bringing the Cardinals passing offense back into the spotlight.  With Palmer at the helm, Arizona has had the 2nd most passing yards per game (289), tied for the 3rd most passing TDs (35), and had the most yards per attempt (8.5) in the NFL this season.  Larry Fitzgerald is relevant again, and John Brown and Michael Floyd are now significant threats downfield.  That’s not to say they’re a sure thing, though.  One only need look at the embarrassing Week 17 thumping they got from Seattle to see that things CAN go wrong here.

But Green Bay isn’t Seattle and has allowed the 12th most rushing yards per game (119.1) this year while Arizona has the 8th most rushing yards per game this year.  Sure, much of that was due to the rebirth of Chris “CJ2K” Johnson, but David Johnson has proved to be a capable, if not better, fit for the Cardinals ground game.  With the Cardinals defense likely to prove to be a challenge for Rodgers and company, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals lean on Johnson a bit more to control the clock.

Prediction

Packers are ranked 10th in DVOA while the Cardinals are ranked 3rd.  I think Cardinals will have something to prove after getting beat down in Week 17, and they certainly have the offensive and defensive tools to do so.  Rodgers was much improved last week, but I think the Cardinals will be ready and will manage to take this close game at home.

Green Bay Packers 23 – Arizona Cardinals 27

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Seattle SeahawksCarolina Panthers

Sunday – 1:05 PM ET

Carolina is favored by 3

It seemed like ages ago when the Seahawks and Panthers met up earlier this season.  The Seahawks were on a downward slide having lost 3 of 5 games entering the matchup and the Panthers were just starting they’re “almost perfect” season.  The Panthers almost ended the Seahawks season in that game in Seattle, beating them 27-23.  But this Seattle team has been a different animal since the slow start.  They managed to win 8 of their last 10 games to make to the playoffs, and have looked particularly solid not only on defense, but on offense as well.  Will the story be different when the Seahawks come to Carolina this weekend?

Keys for the Seahawks

Head coach Pete Carroll said last week that Lynch was “ready to rock”.  But suddenly, on Friday, Lynch apparently ruled himself out of the game and didn’t get on the bus.  The Seahawks are good, but honestly, Russell Wilson only played one quarter of quality football against the Vikings, and they ultimately should have lost but for the “laces out” missed chip shot by Vikings K Blair Walsh.

Wilson has been relatively good this year with the 2nd most yards per attempt (8.3) and tied for the 3rd least INTs thrown, but his offensive line has let him down frequently, allowing the 6th most sacks to opposing defenses.  Carolina’s pass defense is better than Minnesota’s (11th against the pass), so the Seahawks will need to get their ground game going if they want a chance at a win, which will be tough against a defense that allows the 4th least rushing yards per game in the NFL.  If Lynch gets in the game, it will be a boost for Seattle, perhaps making this game closer to a coin flip.

Unfortunately, Lynch is still day-to-day, and if it’s Christine Michael handling the rock (as Bryce Brown was nowhere to be seen against the Vikings), I think it will be a long day for Seattle.

The Seattle defense has been elite this year (2nd against the pass and 1st against the run), but it will tough to win a game on defense alone, particularly on the road against a team as hot as Carolina.

Keys for the Panthers

What’s been key all season for this Panthers team are Cam Newton and the defense.

But the most interesting matchup in this game may actually be between the Carolina ground game and the Seattle run defense.  Seattle has allowed the least rushing yards per game in the NFL.  But last they met in Week 6, RB Jonathan Stewart managed 78 yards and 2 TDs.  The Panthers had the 2nd most rushing yards per game (142.6) and tied for MOST total rushing TDs (19) this year.  With Stewart likely to be back at near full health, Seattle will have their hands full on the ground.

But they’ll have their hands full on the ground not simply because Stewart is returning, but because Newton has been very efficient running the ball this year.  Newton had 636 total rush yards, good for best among QBs, and 10 rushing TDs, tied for 5th among ALL NFL players.  Only RBs DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Hill and Devonta Freeman had more rushing TDs (11).  And although the Panthers have had the 9th least passing yards per game (224), they’ve actually tied for 3rd most total passing TDs (35).  That’s what happens when you have an outstanding defense that constantly wins you field position.

Cam Newton

Cam Newton

And although the Panthers may allow more passing yards and rushing yards per game than the Seahawks (11th against the pass and 4th against the run), they have the 6th most total sacks (44), MOST total INTs (24) and the HIGHEST take-away / give-away differential in the NFL at plus 20.

With field position and ball control on their side, this Panthers team is going to be challenging to beat.

Prediction

Football Outsiders have the Seahawks first overall in DVOA with the Panthers at 4th.  Ultimately, I think Panthers have the edge on offense, especially with Lynch a question mark to play.  The Seahawks were lucky to escape Minnesota with a win.  Carolina is a much tougher team, and I think Seattle’s luck has run out.

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 23

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