NFL NFC Conference Championship Preview & Prediction

By Ha Kung Wong 

Twitter: @FBGarbageTime

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday – 6:40 PM ET Sunday

Carolina is favored by 3

Similar to the AFC Divisional Round games, the NFC Divisional Round games both ended within one score.  But again, how they ended differed greatly.

With the Cardinals, it was thrilling OT victory after a “not again” moment where Aaron Rodgers threw a Hail Mary TD as time expired to tie the game.  With the Panthers, it was a complete domination of the first half where they blanked the Seahawks and an almost complete collapse in the second where the Seahawks nearly caught up.  This isn’t the first time this has happened, and when interviewed on ESPN, Panthers TE Greg Olson admitted that holding on to leads was an issue, while half-jokingly noting that ultimately, having to deal with holding on to leads is a good issue to have.

But will this be an issue for the Panthers this Sunday?

Keys for the Cardinals

Although Arizona had the 2nd most passing yards per game (289), 3rd most passing TDs (35) and most yards per attempt (8.5) this year, Carson Palmer again demonstrated that he could be brilliant (e.g. his first drive leading to a perfectly placed TD pass to Michael Floyd) and terrible (e.g. his 2 INTs) all in the same game.  He did ultimately manage to salvage the game in overtime, much of which was due to Larry Fitzgerald’s YAC, but his pseudo-reverse option shovel pass leading to the 5 yard OT score was brilliant and well executed.

David Johnson, who has taken over for an injured Chris Johnson, has been a significant contributor to Arizona having the 8th most rushing yards per game in the NFL this year.  I thought the favorable matchup last week would help Johnson to a career day, but the Packers had other ideas limiting Johnson to only 35 yards on 15 carries and an additional 43 receiving yards on 6 receptions.

This time around time around, Johnson will have to face a much tougher Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the 4th least rushing yards per game this year (88.4).  I don’t expect Johnson to be completely shut down, but there certainly will be less room to run against the Panthers.  Fortunately, Johnson is at times more effective catching passes as opposed to toting the rock, and the Panthers allowed the second-most catches to running backs (106) during the regular season.  Of course, this all assumes Johnson’s toe injury isn’t serious, which at least appears to be the case.

To win this game, not only will the Cardinals need to contain Cam Newton, but Palmer will need to be much more careful handling the ball, as the Panthers defense had the most total INTs this year and had the best turnover ratio (+20) during the regular season.  2 INTs won’t cut it this weekend, no matter how many yards-after-catch Larry Fitzgerald has.

Keys for the Panthers

As predicted, Jonathan Stewart effectively carried the mail (106 yards and 2 TDs) against the Seahawks, one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL.  So much so, that Cam Newton and Greg Olsen really didn’t have to do much to keep the team ahead.  But, as mentioned above, the defense really softened up in the second half.  After looking unstoppable in the first half, including adding a pick-six, they allowed 24 straight points in the second half.  Although they pulled it out against Seattle, this can be a bigger problem against the Cardinals as they can get hot in a hurry and certainly can take advantage of a lagging pass defense.  Being consistent on defense will be incredibly important to the Panthers chances for advancing to the Super Bowl.

That being said, it’s clear that Jonathan Stewart is an important part of this offense.  So a tweaked ankle which held him out of practice Wednesday had people worried.  Head coach Ron Rivera has said that Stewart will play on Sunday, but will be eased in over the week.

Ron Rivera says he's confident Stewart will play vs. Cardinals. Not as confident in Allen's status.

— Joe Person (@josephperson) January 21, 2016

Even with a healthy Stewart, though, it won’t be easy to move the ball on the ground, as the Cardinals allowed the 6th least rushing yards per game (91.3) during the regular season.  Of course, as mention last week, opposing defenses don’t only have Stewart to worry about on the ground because Newton has been very efficient running the ball as well.  Newton had 636 total rush yards, good for best among QBs, and 10 rushing TDs, tied for 5th among ALL NFL players.  Only RBs DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Hill and Devonta Freeman had more rushing TDs (11).  And although the Panthers have had the 9th least passing yards per game (224), they’ve actually tied for 3rd most total passing TDs (35).  Of course, the Cardinals defense haven’t been a push over against the pass allowing the 7th least passing yards per game (230) and have the 4th most INTs (19).

Cam Newton will have to be careful with the ball, but he’s much improved in the second half of the season.  In fact, over the last 9 games, including against the Seahawks in the Divisional Round, Newton has only thrown 1 INT.  And that’s compared to 10 INTs over the first half of the season.

Prediction

Football Outsiders has the Cardinals ranked 3rd in overall DVOA while the Panthers are ranked 4th.  But the Panthers are just too hot coming into this showdown. The only thing that will stop the Panthers from making the Super Bowl is the Panthers.  And I don’t think that will happen this week.

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Carolina Panthers 27