San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears – Preview

By Ha Kung Wong  San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago BearsPackers

Twitter: @FBGarbageTime

The Chicago Bears had a stunning win against the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, at Lambeau Field and during the jersey retirement of long time QB nemesis Brett Favre to boot.  Perhaps even more surprising is that each of Chicago’s last three wins came on the road.  The Bears have lost 11 of their last 14 at Soldier Field and are only 1-4 this season at home, where they’ll play three of the last five critical games of the season.  And the first of these home games comes up this week against the struggling San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears

Bears Offense

Of course, this could be the proverbial “rock meets a hard place” scenario, as although the Bears can’t win at home, the 49ers can’t win on the road.  San Francisco has been outscored 176-71 while going 0-5 on the road and hasn’t shown much improvement.

Part of the problem is that the 49ers defense has not been good in allowing the 4th most yards per game (397.9) to opposing offenses.  They did a slightly better job in Week 12 containing the high powered Arizona Cardinals offense, but still lost.  There are some bright spots in the 49ers defense, as they have the 4th most tackles (774) in the NFL, but they also have the 5th least number of sacks (19).

The Bears offense was cooking when it put up 37 points on the 5th best scoring Rams defense in Week 10, fell flat against the tough Denver Broncos defense in Week 11 and managed to do just enough against the Green Bay Packers in Week 12.  In other words, there’s almost no telling which offense will show up on Sunday.  But now that Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery are close to 100% healthy, Martellus Bennett is back on track to play (though reports of dissatisfaction may detract from his focus), and the dynamic Jeremy Langford has found a role in the backfield, Jay Cutler will be operating close to full capacity. I say almost because first round draft pick Kevin White and Eddie Royal will remain out, and Marquess Wilson is currently listed as questionable after suffering an injury in practice [Update: Wilson has been ruled out for Week 13.].

Regardless, in the last 8 games, where the Bears have gone 5-3, they’ve averaged a little over 23 points per game.  And under OC Adam Gase, Cutler, the much maligned Bears QB who was benched last year for Jimmy Clausen, has posted a career-high 92.5 passer rating and thrown only one INT in the last 3 games.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Cutler continue this trend in Week 13.

Bears Defense

As I’ve mentioned since week 10, the Bears defense has been quietly having a decent year, moving up to 2nd against the pass, but sliding to 29th against the run after a allowing 177 rush yards to the Packers in Week 12.  Regardless, the Bears have yielded an average of only 15.5 points in the last four games after giving up an average of 28.9 in the first seven.  In fact, the Bears have only allowed one TD in three of the last four games.

Ever since Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush went out due to injury, San Francisco has been scrambling to find healthy bodies to put in the backfield.  Currently, that’s Shaun Draughn, but it hasn’t changed anything, as the 49ers have been held to fewer than 70 rush yards in 5 of the last 6 games and only totaled 126 rush yards in its last 2 games.  In three starts, QB Blaine Gabbert has been surprisingly effective, posting a 91.0 passer rating.  In fact, he’s almost made WR Anquan Bolden relevant again.  But the 49ers have only mustered 14.3 points per game under Gabbert, and the Bears have held 3 of their last 5 opposing QBs under 200 passing yards.

Alas, it’s hard to see the 49ers generate enough offense to win this game, even if they force feed Shaun Draughn on the ground against the suspect Bears run defense.

Prediction

I thought the Bears would struggle against the normally dangerous Packers offense in Week 12, but they managed to pull out the win.  Call me a believer, at least for now.  For the Bears to make a Wild Card run, they’ll need to win one at home, and I think playoffs hope remain alive… at least for one more week.

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Chicago Bears 27