AFC South Preview & Predictions: Week 16

December 26, 2015

Twitter: @kongfu4u AFC South

Now that it’s December 26th and we’ve all celebrated the holidays, it’s time to get down to the important stuff. The two teams on top of the AFC South are looking at some tight competition to become the division leader at the end of the 17-week regular season. But, a lot of things need go right (or maybe wrong) for each team to sit on top of this division of back-up quarterbacks.

Houston Texans & Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans (7-7) @ Tennessee Titans (3-11)

For the first time this season the Texans are first in the division (at least for an entire week). Although the Titans are eliminated from the post-season, the Texans need to win the last two regular season games to secure their position as division leaders. But, can it be done?

Brandon Weeden

Texans – Brian Hoyer (quarterback) is questionable due to concussion and injury, and T.J. Yates (back-up quarterback) is out, leaving Brandon Weeden. In week 15, Weeden successfully lead the Texans to a win (16-10) against the Indianapolis Colts. With Titans quarterback, Marital, out, can Weeden outscore the Titans offense? The Titans defense is ranked 10th in the passing game, allowing 234 yards per game. Although Cecil Shorts III is out for week 16, The Texans will have receiver DeAndre Hopkins, rookie Jaelen Strong and Nate Washington, who has the second most targets on the team but has had little production in the latter half of this season. In the running game, the Titans defense are ranked 17th, allowing 110.1 yards per game. In week 15, the Texans found a ground game with Alfred Blue. The Texans will need to repeat their success with the ground game if they want to take home the win.

Zach Mettenberger – USA Today Sports Photo

Titans – The largest opposition for the Titans is the absence of their rookie quarterback, Marcus Mariota. In week 15, with no chance for the post-season, interim coach Mike Mularkey sided with caution and decided to sit Mariota, even though he wanted to return.

Mariota will probably be out for the remainder of the season with a MCL sprain to his right knee, which is less serious than the sprained left knee that kept Mariota out for two games this season. Zack Mettenberger will be playing quarterback this Sunday against their divisional rivals. The last time these two teams met (week 8), Mariota was out and Mettenberger was in. The Texans won 20-6, sacking Mettenberger 7-times.

Of course, J.J. Watt didn’t have a hand in a cast.

The Texans defense have allowed the second fewest yards against the pass, and ranked 16th against the run game. The Titans greatest threat will be tight end Delanie Walker, who had the most receptions the last time these two teams met with 6 receptions for 62 yards. If Mettenberger can get the ball out before the Texans defensive gets to him, he’ll have Kendell Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham. Unfortunately, the Titans running game has been limited with Antonio Andrews leading the teams in rushing yards with only 519 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns this season.

Expect the Texans to win
Expect DeAndre Hopkins to get a touchdown
Expect Mettenberger to have 1 touchdown

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (5-9)

Andrew Luck is still out. And, an injured Matt Hasselbeck is likely to start for the Colts in week 16. Luckily, the resurrected Miami Dolphins team (which existed for about 2 weeks after the firing of head coach Joe Philbin) is now the ‘once again terrible’ Dolphins, who have lost four out of the last five games.

Matt Hasselbeck – Getty Images

Unfortunately, the Colts aren’t much better, losing the last three games.

The Dolphins defense are the 5th worst team against the passing game, allowing 264.7 yards per game, while, the Colts defense are the 4th worst team against the pass, allowing 267.2 yards per game. In the run game, the Dolphins are the 4th worst team against the run, allowing 132.1 yards per game, while the Colts defense is the 8th worse team against the run, allowing 123.8 yards per game.

Two mediocre teams on defense and offense. The Dolphins will be playing at home, having the support of the home crowd, but that might not be enough with a beat-up Dolphins team and a defense in turmoil.

Without a record good enough for the wild card playoff, the Colts will need to be first in the AFC south division to enter the post season, which mean, they will have to win the last two games while the Houston Texans lose their last two games. The Colts face the Tennessee Titans in week 17, and is very possible that their record can improve to 8-9. If the Texans lose either game, ending the season with a 8-9 record after the regular season, the Texans will sit at first due to divisional wins.

Expect the Colts to win
Expect it to be a close game
Expect Tannehill to throw 1 touchdown
Expect Hasselbeck to throw 1 touchdown
Expect a lot of field goals

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) @ New Orleans Saints (5-9)

After a disappointing loss to the Atlanta Falcons on week 15, the Jaguars meet the Saints at the Superdome.

What can we expect?

The Saints defense has allowed 432 points this season, are the 3rd worst team against the passing game, allowing 276.4 yards per game, and the worst team in the league against the running game, allowing 137.1 yards per game.

Drew Brees

Drew Brees is currently questionable with limited practice on Friday with a torn plantar fascia. Although Brees is insistent on playing, if Brees sits out of the game, which he should since the Saints are eliminated from the post-season, either rookie quarterback Garrett Grayson or veteran quarterback Matt Flynn will be ready to start. Both quarterbacks split taking snaps on Thursday while Brees was sidelined and both are excited to have an opportunity to take the field, whether they will is another story.

The Saints offensive game will likely have a different outcome dependent on whether or not Brees decided to play. The Jaguars defense totaled 41 sacks, the 6th most in the league, 14 interceptions where 3 have been returned for a touchdown, and 12 forced fumbles where 3 have been returned for a touchdown.

As for the Saints defense, they’ve had a difficult season containing any team. With the Jaguars offense healthy, the Saints defense should have a similar problem.

The Jaguars are a team in progress and they will continue to be so. The Jaguars are statistically eliminated from the post season, even if they win the last two games, while the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts loss their next to games. Due to divisional losses, the Jaguars would be unable to take first in the AFC south if there was a 3 team tie at the top.