AFC South Review: Week 10 & Preview: Week 11

November 19, 2015

Twitter: @kongfu4u AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: @ Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

Coming off a bye-week, the Indianapolis Colts have lost their starting quarterback, Andrew Luck…again. But, will the absence of Luck affect the Colts? Although entering the bye-week with his best game of the season and defeating the 8-0 Denver Broncos, Luck’s performance this season has been unpredictable. In the seven games that Luck has started, he’s thrown for 1881 yards, 15 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 2 fumbles with a total quarterback rating of 47.6. The stats might sound slightly impressive, but if you’ve watched any of the games, you realize that ‘Luck of the present’ has been unlike ‘Luck of the past’ this season, acquiring most of his stats during the fourth quarter comeback. In the two games Matt Hasselbeck started as quarterback, he’s totaled two wins – granted they were against the Jaguars and Texans.

With Hasselbeck’s lack of arm strength and accuracy downfield, the Colts strategy will most likely rely heavily on running back Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw. Unfortunately, the Falcons have only allowed 88.9 rushing yards per game this season. If the Colts want any chance of winning, they will need to throw the ball. The options are there. And, with two weeks for the Colts, and Hasselbeck, to prepare, a win is possible.

Matt Hasselbeck

Also, the Falcons are favored to win week 11 against the Colts even with a two loss streak going into their bye-week. Although the Falcons started 5-0, they’ve been fighting an uphill battle since losing in week 6 to the New Orleans Saints. Matt Ryan has faced some difficulties, often having problems finding the endzone with only 12 passing touchdowns this season. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman has been the team’s primary contributor with 721 rushing yards (3rd most in the league) with 9 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns. Which is good news for the Falcons. The Colts defense has been as unreliable as their offense, allowing 25.2 points, 114.9 rushing yards and 279.3 passing yards per game. The Colts defense shouldn’t be a challenge for Freeman, but teams are rapidly adjusting for Freeman’s ability. For example, in week 8, the San Francisco 49ers held Freeman to only 12 rush yards. However, if Matt Ryan recovers his accuracy over the bye, the Colts mediocre secondary shouldn’t be a challenge for Julio Jones, Jacob Tamme or even Devonta Freeman.

The Falcons need the win to stay in the hunt for the wild card. The Colts need the win to remain first in the AFC South division. Both teams have shown lows and highs throughout the season. This will be a close game, but in the end the Falcons offense will outplay the Colts.

What does this mean?

Expect the Colts to lose
Expect Frank Gore to be held to less than 50 yards
Expect Hasselbeck to have 1 touchdown
Expect the Falcons defense to have a touchdown

Houston Texans (4-5)

Houston Texans (10) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6)

The Texans needed the win to tie the Colts for first place in the division. The Bengals needed the win to maintain their undefeated record. Going into the Monday night game, the Bengals were 11 point favorites. But, as we all know, upsets exist in the NFL and Monday night was a marquee one for the Bengals. A slovenly rag-tag Texas team plagued with injuries and underperformance took the field hoping for the best while expecting the worst.

Surprisingly, the game was entirely a defensive struggle, with both offences having a difficult time finding the end zone. Andy Dalton, quarterback of the Bengals, had one of the worst games of the season throwing for only 197 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Neither team had a run game. Neither team had a pass game. But one team did come out on top, and it wasn’t the team Bengals fans had expected. What was supposed to be an easy win, turned out to be a devastating loss.

T.J. Yates

Brian Hoyer left in the fourth quarter suffering a concussion and T.J. Yates substituted as quarterback. The Texans were down 3-6 when Yates made a ridiculously wild throw into the end zone which DeAndre Hopkins savaged with an incredible catch for a touchdown and the win.

Week 11: New York Jets (5-4)

Coming off a spectacular win against the undefeated Bengals in week 10, the Texans are hoping to see the same success in week 11 against the Jets. Unfortunately, added to the injury list are DeAndre Hopkins (knee) and Brian Hoyer (concussion).

Ryan Fitzpatrick will face off against his former team for the first time this season. Fitzpatrick lead the Texans to a 6-6 record in 2014 before a season ending injury – broken leg. And while Fitzpatrick has found himself leading the Jets offense, the Texans are still struggling to find a leader.

This will be a tough match-up for two teams looking for a win. The Texans look to lead their division with Andrew Luck out on the side lines for at least a month. The Jets are tied with the Buffalo Bills for second place, after their week 9 loss, and are looking to regain their second place seat.

Luckily for the Jets, their 13th ranked run game will face off against the Texans 27th ranked rush defense. That’s good news for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s still coming off surgery to repair a torn ligament on his non-throwing hand, sustained in week 7 against the Oakland Raiders.

Deandre Hopkins

Both passing offenses are likely to struggle in week 11, as Texans DeAndre Hopkins will likely get covered by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, and Jets wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker will go up against Texans corners Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson (if healthy). It’s not just the long game that need worry, as the Texans offensive line face-off against the Jets front three of Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and rookie Leonard Williams, while the Jets offensive line will need to contend with J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Vince Wilfork.

DeAndre Hopkins didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he’ll probably play on Sunday against the Jets. Wide receivers are able to score on Darrelle Revis, but at less than 100%, Hopkins is certain to struggle in week 11. Although Hopkins is the number one target, even in double coverage, the Texans quarterback (whoever it may be) will need to look to second and third wide receiving options and tight ends if the Texans intend to have any chance of winning.

It will be an uphill battle for the Texans in week 11 against the Jets with uncertainty at quarterback and an unsuccessful ground game. But, nobody thought they could defeat the Cincinnati Bengals and they did. The Buffalo Bills ran all over the Jets, so why can’t the Texans.

What does this mean?

Expect the Jets get a defensive touchdown
Expect the Jets to win a close game

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Jacksonville Jaguars (22) @ Baltimore Ravens (20)

How does a quarterback with a rating of 36.3 win against a quarterback with a rating of 61.8? An officiating error.

Blake Bortles had only 188 yards on Sunday against the Ravens, but passed for two touchdowns to the teams two Allen’s. Jaguars kicker, Jason Meyers, put up ten points against the Ravens. The Ravens (2-7) have had a rough season with losses within 6 or less points, except against the Arizona Cardinals when the Ravens lost 18-26. Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars was particularly bitter, as they lost in the last few seconds of the game to a field goal that shouldn’t have happened.

Week 11: Tennessee Titans (2-7)

Trying to stay in contention, the short week brings a lot of questions for the Jaguars.

T.J. Yeldon (foot) is said to be active even though he was held from practice on Wednesday. The Jaguars haven’t had a strong showing in their run game this season. Yeldon has had only two rushing touchdowns this season, and only two games where he’s rushed for over a hundred yards. Luckily, the Titans have a sub-par rushing defense, allowing 112.3 yards per game.

T.J. Yeldon

With Julius Thomas (abdomen) underperforming his pricetag, Bortles has turned to Allen Hurns (thigh/foot), who practiced on Tuesday without a setback. Hurns has been one of Bortles go-to targets this season, along with Allen Robinson. Bortles shouldn’t have problems in week 11 against the Titans. The Titans secondary has run into some problems with the absence of cornerback Jason McCourty (out with a groin injury) and Perish Cox, suffering from hamstring issues, though listed as probable for week 11.

Rashad Greene (thumb) and Marqise Lee (hamstring) are also listed as probable for Thursday night’s game against the Titans. Defensive tackle Sen’ Derrick Marks will be out with a torn bicep.

What does this mean?

Expect the Jaguars to win by at least 10
Expect Bortles to have 4 touchdowns
Expect Bortles to be sacked at least 3 times
Expect Allen Hurns to have 100+ yards
Expect Allen Robinson to have a touchdown

Tennessee Titans (2-7)

Carolina Panthers (27) @ Tennessee Titans (10)

The Titans loss was the only expected outcome in week 10 for the AFC South division. The Panthers are still undefeated at 9-0. The New England Patriots are the only other team in the NFL with an undefeated record this season.

This is the Titans first loss under interim coach Mike Mularkey, and the Titans 10th straight home loss. Marcus Mariota was 16 of 24 throwing for only 185 yards and 1 interception. Shutout 13-0 in the second half, the Titans were held to only 11 first downs in total and the game ended with a fumble by Dexter McCluster.

Week 11: @Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

The Jaguars aren’t the only team suffering from injury. The Titans will be playing without Justin Hunter (right ankle injury) and Kendall Wright (knee).

The Titans offense is still working out their ground game, like many NFL teams. But with the Jaguars allowing only 93.7 rushing yards per game, the Titans will need to rely on their passing game to win this division rivalry.

Marcus Mariota

In week 10, Marcus Mariota had no passing touchdowns after having 4 against the New Orleans Saints. With two of his options out for week 11, Mariota will have to depend on Delanie Walker, Anthony Fasano and Dorial Green-Beckham in the pass game. Luckily for the Titans, the Jaguars have allowed 268.4 passing yards per game.

With two mediocre defense, this game is likely to be a shootout. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Mariota at his best, and we’ve seen him at his worst. If the Titans want to move out of last place in the division, they’ll have to beat the Jaguars in week 11.

What does this mean?