AFC South Preview and Predictions: Week 10

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u  AFC South

With first place in the AFC South still up for grabs, the games in this division are becoming more and more meaningful.  And with Andrew Luck out for at least a month with a lacerated kidney, the teams on the bottom are looking to win…win…win.

With a couple of undefeated teams on the schedule in week 10, the goal might be harder to reach for some of the teams in the AFC South.

Houston Texans

Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

The Texans are coming off a bye-week, and looking to keep up with the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the division.   But it won’t be easy as the Bengals are one of three undefeated teams remaining in the league along with the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers.

The Texans last win before the bye was against the Marcus Mariota led Tennessee Titans.  The win previous to week 8 was against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 6.  The Texans have struggled on offense with quarterback drama, but Brian Hoyer has lead the team since being named the starter in week 5 – throwing for 1116 yards and 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  Of course, the biggest impact player for the Texan offense has been wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who’s had 113 targets, 870 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns this seasons.  And teams know this is the player you need to watch.  He might not be the goal line guy every week, but Hopkins is essential to moving the ball downfield.  Luckily, Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts III have been practicing and are both probable for Monday Night’s game, opening the options for Hoyer, which will be needed.  The Bengals defense has functioned well this season, even without a super-star defensive player, allowing only 244.1 passing yards, 105 rushing yards and 17.8 points per game.

With Houston defense allowing only 227.4 passing yards per game but allowing some of the most rushing yards, the Bengals will likely depend on their running combo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, which shouldn’t be a problem.  The Bengals have had success with their rush game this season with 243 attempts, 963 rushing yard and 10 touchdowns.  But that doesn’t mean the Bengals won’t take advantage of Tyler Eifert, A.J. Green and Marvin Jones.  J.J. Watt and the Houston defense will need to put pressure on Andy Dalton and the offensive line if they want any chance to win this game.

What does this mean?

• This won’t be an easy game for the Texans to win with Bengals playing at home, but nothing is impossible.
• Expect a close game, but the Bengals win.
• Expect Hoyer to have 2 passing touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

Okay, so the Jaguars lost week 9, and they’re expected to lose week 10 as they face off against the Ravens in an away game.

The Jaguars running game has been less than desirable.  Rookie T.J. Yeldon had only two games in which he rushed for over 100 yards, and has only 1 touchdown and a total of 470 rushing yards for the season.  With the Raven’s defense only allowing 99.8 rushing yards per game and Yeldon not producing as expected, don’t expect Yeldon to have a breakout game.  Instead, Bortles will likely look to the two Allen’s – Hurns and Robinson.  Tight-end Julius Thomas hasn’t been the contributor the team had expected, but the season isn’t over yet and options Bortles can use the additional help.  Although the Jaguars have only 2 wins for the season, Blake Bortles have steadily improved, as has the offense, throwing for 381 yards and 2 touchdowns against the vaunted Jets defense.  Of course, Bortles did have two interceptions, one which lead to a Jets touchdown, but luckily for the Jaguars the Ravens defense have allowed 283.9 passing yards per game and 26.8 points per game, good for 4th worse in the NFL.

Coming off a bye-week, the Ravens have problems of their own, being third in the AFC North and far from entering the post season with the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals sitting at first.  The Ravens lost Steve Smith Sr. for the season, who was the most targeted receiver on the team, 73 of which were caught for 670 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. But that doesn’t mean Joe Flacco won’t throw the ball with Kamar Aikens and Crockett Gilmore on the offense.  However, the Ravens are a run heavy team, and will probably rely on running back Justin Forsett, even though the Jaguars have only allowed 94.3 rushing yards per game and held Chris Ivory to only 26 yards in week 9.

What does this mean?

• Expect a close game, but the Jaguars take the win at M&T Bank Stadium even with a well-rested Ravens team.
• The Jaguars defense have an interception/fumble for a touchdown.
• Bortles has another 300+ passing game.
• Expect the Jaguars to have 3 touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans

Carolina Panthers (8-0) @ Tennessee Titans (2-6)

Although there are some things you can always count on, like the sun to rising in the east, apparently you can’t always count on the New Orleans Saints to win in the Superdome, as the Tennessee Titans defeated them in week 9.  And although the sun will never rise in the west, the Titans still have a chance to win the AFC South – as does every other team in the division.

Interim coach Mike Mularky and the Titans will face the undefeated Carolina Panthers in a home game in week 10.  Coming off a spectacular win, the Titans are hungry to be the team that breaks the Panthers 8-0 record.

Marcus Mariota has responded positively to the coaching change, having the best game of his rookie year after warming the bench for two weeks working back from injury.  Whether he can repeat week 9 is anybody’s guess.  As a rookie quarterback, Mariota is still learning and every defense is different and a new challenge.  The Titans offense suffer from a weak rush game, relying heavily on the passing game.  And although the Panthers defense have allowed 350 yards and 20.6 points per game, the Panthers have been successful.  And with the Panthers defense totaling 25 sacks and 13 interceptions, the Titans will need to hold the line, giving Mariota time to survey the field and make smarter decisions.  To keep the Panthers off balance, the Titans will need to use the rush game on the back of workhorse Antonio Andrews, and perhaps newly activated rookie David Cobb, to help get the ball down field.

As many sacks as the Panthers have totaled, the Titans are right on their heels with 22 sacks and 9 interceptions.  But stopping Cam Newton won’t be easy.  Newton has thrown for 1,820 passing yards, thrown for 14 touchdowns, rushed for 343 yards and totaled 5 rushing touchdowns.  But, he’s not infallible.  Newton has had 9 interceptions this season and with enough pressure from the defense, Newton may have a couple more in week 10.  Unfortunately for the Titans, the Panthers have one of the best rush games in the NFL while the Titans have allowed 111.5 rushing yards per game.

What does this mean?

• Expect the game to be close, but expect the Titans to lose.  (I know I said the same thing against in week 9 against the New Orleans Saints.)
• Expect the Panthers to have at least 2 rushing touchdowns.
• Expect the Titans to have two passing touchdowns.
• Don’t expect Delanie Walker to have the same success in week 10
• In week 9, Dorial Green-Beckham led the Titans in targets with a couple in the end-zone.  With Kendall Wright out, expect Mariota to be looking for Green-Beckham.  A touchdown is in his future.