AFC South Preview and Predictions: Week 6

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u  AFC South

In case you’ve been so consumed with football over the past few weeks, 5 to be exact, that you didn’t have time for anything else…here’s what you’ve misses.  The Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets are in the National League Championship Series.  The Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals are in the American League Championship Series.  McDonald’s now offers all-day breakfast.  Burger King has an A-1 black bun in celebration of Halloween.   And, Lamar Odom was found in a coma at a Southern Nevada Brothel after taking herbal Viagra and spending $75 thousand dollars, though he’s now regained consciousness.

Now that you’re all caught up, back to football.

Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts

The last time the Patriots and the Colts met, it was January 18, 2014 in the post season.  They met at Gillette Stadium where the Patriots devastated the Colts 45-7.  It was the impetus of Deflategate, and a question of integrity for the athletes in the National Football League.  But that’s now all, thankfully, in the past.

In week 5, the Colts star quarterback, Andrew Luck, was still looking on from the bench and veteran Matt Hasselback brought the team to victory, again, defeating the Houston Texans 27-20.  The Patriots aren’t the Texans and Tom Brady is leagues above both Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.

What to expect:  The Patriots have won the last six games against the Colts.  And Luck has been the quarterback four-out-of-the-six meetings.  Luck and Hasselback are questionable for this Sunday’s game, but one of them will definitely take the field.  T.Y. Hilton is probable.  Otherwise, the remaining position players should be available on both sides.

Fantasy implications:  In week 6, a win for the Colts looks bleak, with or without Andrew Luck, and regardless of home field advantage.  However, a predicted loss doesn’t mean low fantasy numbers.

The Texans did a good job in covering Donte Moncrief, making week 5 the worst performance he’s had this season.  However, that doesn’t mean Moncrief won’t get an opportunity to make plays against the Patriots, particularly if Luck returns.  He should have a shot at WR2/3 numbers.  In week 5, Andre Johnson had his best game of the season.  But don’t expect him to put up the same numbers in week 6, as he’s not playing the Texans and he’s unlikely to see Hasselbeck under center.  I’d bench him.  If Luck plays, you really have no choice but to play him.  It’s hard to give up on your first round pick.

On the bright side:  Even if the Colts can’t win on the field, fans in Indianapolis can eat up Brady Court room sketch cookies at Taylor’s Bakery.  They are also selling a deflated football cake and broke cell phone cookies.

What does #coltsnation think about 'Broken Cell Phone' cookies? #colts #NEvsIND pic.twitter.com/XnBOq37FJ0

— Taylor's Bakery (@TaylorsBakery) October 16, 2015

Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a (14-27) defeat in London against the New York Jets, a bye-week and a change in coaching staff.  What adjustments they’ve made to their gameplan during the two week hiatus, if any, is anyone’s guess.  In last place in the AFC East, the Dolphins have a lot of work to do to climb into contention.  Although the cost of acquiring and keeping a franchise quarterback has been highly inflated, which directly benefitted Ryan Tannehill in the off-season, he has yet to show his value.  And neither has the Dolphins highest profile off-season acquisition, Ndamukong Suh.

The Titans are heading into week 6 with a loss (13-14) of their own to the Buffalo Bills.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota had the worst performance of his rookie season, passing for under 200 yards and being unable to complete a passing TD.  The Titans are tied with the Jaguars and Texans with only 1 win coming into week 6.

What to expect: Even with a disgruntled and confused defense, on offense, the Dolphins still have an experienced quarterback behind center, at least more so than the Titans.  Mariota lacks decision making skills when frustrated, and seems to work best when in catch up mode.  The Dolphins defense will take advantage of this as well as Tennessee’s weak ground game by increasing the pass rush.  It will be difficult to predict how this match up will play out, since the Dolphins defense hasn’t performed to preseason expectations, but I’d expect a high scoring game.  Ultimately, the Dolphins will take home a win and Tennessee will be 1-4 at the end of week 6.

Houston Texans (1-4) & Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s hard to believe, but the Texans and the Jaguars are the two bottom teams in the AFC South.  Blake Bortles, the Jaguars quarterback, was among the top performers in week 5, but that doesn’t mean much when leaving the game with an ‘L’, losing 31-38 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In week 5, the Indianapolis Colts learned the secret to neutralizing the Houston Texans defense, double team J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.  Frustration set in quickly for J.J. Watt, due to being doubled, as reflected in Watt’s 2 penalties, ultimately making Watt irrelevant.  J.J. Watt had only 2 combined tackles and 2 assists.  It was the weakest performance in Watt’s NFL career since his hundred million dollar contract.

What can we expect from the Texans:  Although unintentional, coach Bill O’Brian made the executive decision to keep Brian Hoyer in the game after Ryan Mallett got the wind knocked out of him.  Mallett was ready to get back in the game, but Hoyer was just better.  O’Brian named Hoyer the starter moving forward, but it won’t make much of a difference.  In week 5, the Texans played 3 rookie receivers and DeAndre Hopkins.  Week 6 should consist of a similar line-up since Nate Washington is out, week 5 surprise performer, Jaelen Strong, is questionable and Arian Foster has yet to meet expectations.  On defense, Jadeveon Clowney has been ruled out, further weakening the Texans.

The Texans have some troubled waters ahead.  And not even J.J. Watt can be everywhere at the same time.

Expect the Texans to lose in week 6, unless the multitude of injuries in Jacksonville keep out their skill players.

What can we expect from the Jaguars: The Jaguars might be 1-4, but they are not a bad team.  The second year veteran, Blake Bortles, has shown a great deal of potential in the season.  Now, if he can only rally the team for a win.

Why will the Jaguars win?  Julius Thomas is finally in the line-up and he’s had some time to practice.  Although playing through a shoulder sprain, Bortles should continue to connect with receivers Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, and even Bryan Walters since Marquise Lee will be out another week.  And although the Jaguars are unable to get the ground game to the point where they’d like, there is no denying that T.J. Yeldon has been a strong addition to the team.  But not having practiced this week due to a groin injury, it’s hard to predict how effective he will be come game time.  Taking a page from the Colts in week 5, the Jaguars defense should disable the Texans greatest threat to Bortles and double team J.J. Watt.  But in crowding the line, they won’t be blanketing the Texans receivers, leading to 2 Hoyer to Jaelen Strong TDs (assuming he suits up).

In week 6, no team should be underestimated.