AFC South Preview and Predictions: Week 4

By Joanne Kong

Twitter: @kongfu4u  AFC South

It’s October.  It’s Fall.  The leaves are changing colors.  And, the NFL has its first bye-week for the New England Patriots (3-0) and the Tennessee Titans (1-2).  As we put away our summer sandals and pull out our winter jackets, we enter into week 4 of the season.

In week 3, we gave a nod to the running backs that made or broke our fantasy teams, including Frank Gore of the Colts and a surprising Antonio Andrews of the Titans.

So, what can we expect in week 4 out of the AFC South?

Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

1The year of the quarterback (injury) curse: Quarterback Andrew Luck hasn’t been putting up the numbers expected since the season began.  The Colts and fantasy owners alike are feeling the pain as Luck was limited in practice all week due to a sore right shoulder from the week 3 game against division rival Tennessee Titans, and is questionable for week 4 against division rival Jacksonville Jaguars.

Luck was a questionable start for fantasy owners when he was healthy, how much worse can he be if he’s limited?  My guess, little will change in his performance on the field (or fantasy numbers).  Fantasy owners who are desperate for a quarterback if Luck is out for week 4 can opt for Blake Bortles of the Jaguars (14% owned).  In week 3, Bortles passed for 242 yards and 2 TDs, even against the New England Patriots.

2Whether Luck plays or not, the Colts will most likely utilize a run heavy scheme after week 3 success on the ground.  Gore will do most of the work in week 4, hoping for similar results.  With rookie Josh Robinson picking up some of the work load in week 4, Gore should still have at least 50 rushing yards and 1 TD in week 4.

The Jaguars should expect a heavy rushing game with Luck’s questionability.  The Jaguars allowed 125 rushing yards and 4 TD in week 3 game against the New England Patriots.  The Colts should have similar success.

3If Luck is behind center in week 4, it’s doubtful he’ll be throwing many passes down field.  But, don’t be surprised if there are some quick screen passes to open receivers for massive gains.  The Jaguars will be expecting the run, but that doesn’t mean Luck won’t try to get the ball to Donte Moncrief, who is certain to have 1 TD.  T.Y. Hilton tied for most targets in week 3 with Moncrief but had no TD to add to his stats.  He’s hoping to catch his first TD for the season in week 4, and he should get it.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Are the Jaguars the worst team in the division?  Perhaps even the League?  Why would I think that?  Just because of the week 3, 17-51 defeat against the New England Patriots?  In reality, the Jaguars, like many others, are perhaps just having some bad luck in the 2015 season.  Marquise Lee (WR) is out for the Sunday game (again) with a hamstring injury.  The biggest acquisition of the off-season, Julius Thomas (TE), is out (again) with a hand injury.  And, Denard Robinson (RB) is out (again) with a knee injury.  And, that’s just the offense.

1Blake Bortles likes to throw the ball.  I get the idea, the more you throw the ball the more opportunities you have in moving the chains.  Bortles completed 17 of 33 pass attempts in week 3, scoring 2 TDs and having 1 interception.  Allen Robinson might be Bortles favorite target, but he will need to pull in the ball in heavy coverage to win the game in week 4.  Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns will end the week with a TD a piece.

2The Jaguars have had little success in the run game this season.  If the Jaguars have any intention of winning, they’ll need a more balanced attack and need to better utilize their running backs.  That includes better blocking up front for bigger lanes as well as better use of play action.  T.J. Yeldon has become the Jaguars starting running back, but he’s only totaled 154 yards in 3 games with no TDs.

3Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts will be a high scoring game.  TD after TD.  It should be fun to watch, especially for fantasy owners.  Ultimately, the Jaguars will win week 4, making them 2-2.

Houston Texans (1-2)

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons

1Although Ryan Mallett has been limited all week in practice due to a chest injury, he should take the field on Sunday to start against the Atlanta Falcons.  Mallet has put up consistent numbers since his start in week 2.  He has some good receivers in his offensive – DeAndre Hopkins, Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts III – Mallett just needs to make some better decisions from the start on Sunday’s game to bring home a win.  Expect Mallet to have his usual 200+ passing yards and 2 passing TDs.

The Falcons (3-0) have a lot of weapons on offense – Matt Ryan (QB), Julio Jones (WR), Leonard Hankerson (WR), Devonta Freeman (RB) and Jacob Tamme (TE) – and they know how to use them.  The Falcons aren’t 3-0 for nothing.

The Texans will need to start off strong to keep up with the Falcons.  The defensive secondary will need to carefully watch their coverage of Julio Jones, who the Dallas defense allowed 164 yards and 2 TDs.  I’m predicting the Texans do a better job in covering Jones, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be ineffective in the game.  After all, Jones is Ryan’s favorite target.

Expect Ryan to give Hankerson some additional targets as well.  The Texans will be able to hold back the running game, even after Devonta Freeman’s impressive week 3 performance.

2Running back Alfred Blue was a huge contributor in the week 3 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  But there’s some more good news Texans fans.  Arian Foster is expected to return in week 4.  Can you say rushing TD?

3I don’t know if I’m saying this due to my inexplicable love for the Texans, but expect the Texans to end the week 2-2.