NFC South Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Robert Knarr

The NFC South is a division that seems to be in perpetual flux.  In fact, until 2014, a team had never won consecutive division titles.  The Carolina Panthers were the first team to break this streak.  That was a staggering occurrence in and of itself and is especially surprising since there have been many great teams in the division throughout the years.  The ’99 Falcons, ’03 Buccaneers, ’04 Panthers, and ’10 Saints all either played in or won the Super Bowl.  However, none of these teams were even able to win the South the following year.  In the meantime, the Patriots have won the AFC East every year since 2003.  And in 2014?  Not a single team was able to post a winning record in the NFC South.

The Buccaneers are in a full on rebuild, and the Saints and Falcons can at best be considered to be re-tooling.  Therefore, many people will dismiss the division heading into the 2015 season.  However, I find the division to be fascinating, even if many of the teams are in a transition.  The division still contains a legitimate team capable of going deep in the playoffs if a few things break their way in the Panthers, and a couple of teams capable of surprising people in the Falcons and Saints.  Finally, the Buccaneers are in the middle of an interesting rebuild and had the #1 pick in the NFL draft.  Let’s review each team’s offseason and try to project where they’re heading going into the 2015 season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers were terrible last season, but should see at least some improvement this year.  They won only two games, and ranked near the bottom in most categories on offense and defense.  With high draft picks and a couple of decent free agent pickups they should be improved.  It’s hard to succeed on offense when you have to decide whether Josh McCown or Mike Glennon should be your starting quarterback.  The team is definitely rebuilding and the season will be a tremendous success if they can sniff .500.  The most interesting part of the Bucs offseason was clearly the draft.  They had the #1 pick, and used it on Jameis Winston.  It was no surprise he was drafted by the Bucs, because he filled their greatest need, quarterback.  Whether or not he’ll be a success is a greater question.  It always is for young quarterbacks, due to the difficulty of the position.  His performance will be the lynchpin for Tampa, since they don’t have a great defense or likely even a decent run game.

Quarterback

Of course, by now most people know all about Jameis Winston.  He was the 2013 Heisman winner, National Champion, and subject of great controversy.  I am fairly skeptical of him succeeding in the NFL.  He has tremendous potential, is an incredible athlete, with a great arm, and is coming from a college that runs a pro-style offense.  There are definitely a few concerns regarding his performance and makeup though.  I really see him going having a lot of trouble in his rookie season, and probably not ever living up to his potential.  His sophomore year, while very good, was not the utterly dominating performance of his freshman year.  He totaled 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.  His Y/A dropped from 10.6 to 8.4.  He rushed for only 65 yards, compared to 219 in his freshman year.  His completion percentage was pretty consistent at a stellar 65.3 percent.  He has been praised for being able to create plays with his arm strength and legs, but this is considerably more difficult in the NFL.  It’s tough to evade linebackers and defensive lineman that are as quick and fast as you are.  Obviously the level of defensive play is vastly superior in the NFL, and has destroyed many promising quarterbacks hopes and dreams.

He has had many off the field issues as well.  I’m not here to judge Winston as a person.  I remember college and all the trouble I got into.  But, the kid is about to play one of the most mentally demanding jobs in all of professional sports.  He is going to need to be responsible and mature at an age when many kids are still raging through college and sleeping through classes.  And he is going to need to have the discipline to not get caught up in all of the temptations surrounding a millionaire star NFL #1 pick.  All that being said, I still would’ve drafted the guy #1, because his potential is enormous and filled the Bucs greatest need. Just because I don’t believe he’ll reach his potential doesn’t mean I don’t think he can be a decent QB and I wouldn’t be shocked if he proved me wrong down the road.

Wide Receivers

I also think Tampa did pretty well in setting Winston up for success.  They have a good receiving corps highlighted by rookie Mike Evans.  He ranked 17th in WR rating according to Pro Football Focus.  He finished the year with 1051 yds. and 12 touchdowns with Glennon and McCown doing most of the work throwing the ball.  That’s incredibly impressive.  Even though I’m not incredibly high on Winston translating his success to the NFL, I expect him to play better than they did. At 6-5 and 230, he has the physical tools to be great, and he should be able to work even better as a deep threat with Winston throwing the ball.  I expect him to build on this success and be a top 10 wideout this season.  Vincent Jackson’s production faltered a little bit and he will be entering his age 32 season.  However, Jackson has a pretty consistent track record and didn’t have an awful season catching the ball, he just couldn’t find the end zone, scoring only 2 touchdowns.  He still had 70 receptions and 1002 yds.  Wide receiver depth has been a problem for the Bucs, and they took two wide receivers in the draft, Kenny Bell in the fifth round and Kaelin Clay in the sixth round.  Perhaps, Bell can be an upgrade, while Clay will probably play as a returner.

Tight Ends

At tight end, Seferian-Jenkins was a second round pick and is capable of producing average or above results.  He only played in nine games and some are predicting he have a breakout season.  The team also picked up Tim Wright from the Patriots who was used sparingly but still holds some promise.  Brandon Myers is in the fold as well, and provides some depth at the position.  I wouldn’t expect a ton of offensive production from this area, but they should block well and have potential to exceed offensive expectations, with possible breakouts from youngsters Wright and Seferian-Jenkins.

Offensive Line

One of the biggest areas of concerns for the Bucs and Winston is the offensive line.  They were ranked near the bottom in most categories last year and finished the year ranked 27th in Pass Blocking Efficiency according to Pro Football Focus.  They gave up 41 hits, 27 sacks, and 118 hurries.  However, they did draft two lineman immediately after taking Winston.  They took Donovan Smith out of Penn State, a 338 lb. Tackle and Ali Marpet from Hobart, a 307 lb. Guard who is said to have looked great, but faced lower levels of competition.  Some people had Smith ranked a little lower, but should be successful if he can keep his focus, which was questioned. The rookie linemen have the size, but their future is a little bit uncertain.  These rookies will need to step in immediately and provide better production or it is gonna be incredibly difficult for Winston to step up and make plays as a rookie QB.  His elusiveness will help him in this regard, and the rest of the returning line actually did ok.  They were rated decently, so how the line performs will largely be up to the rookies.  The O-line should be better, but is likely to struggle with two rookie starters.  The consistent theme through this article, however, is that they can’t be as bad as last year.

Running Backs

The running game is another issue that needs addressing for the Bucs.  Bobby Rainey, Doug Martin, and Charles Sims are the team’s options and none of them are very appetizing.  Perhaps, with a revamped O-line and a better option at QB a few more holes will open up.  Bobby Rainey posted pretty mundane numbers with 406 yds. on 94 attempts.  He averaged 4.3 Y/A and had 1 TD.  Doug Martin watched his slide continue since his rookie season as he had 3.7 Y/A and 2 TDs.  The Bucs seemed to have lost faith in Martin, and I don’t see him turning it around.   They have Charles Sims as well who played in extremely limited time and hasn’t been impressive thus far.  They also drafted Joey Iosefa out of Hawaii in the 7th round, but he doesn’t project as much more than a blocker for the offense.  I don’t see any improvement in this area for the Bucs.  This is too bad, because a good HB could take some pressure off of Winston, but unfortunately the team had so many holes it was impossible to fill them all.

Defensive Line

Tampa was pretty much as bad on defense as they were on offense.  They finished 25th in both yards and points given up.  However, they do have a couple of stars on the defensive end.  Let’s start with Defensive line.  Gerald McCoy is a beast and ranked second in the overall DT ratings according to Pro Football Focus.  He is a monster when it comes to the pass rush, putting up by far the highest ranking of 36.2. A score twice as high as any other DT, in a statistic that attempts to isolate a players performance on pass rushing.  In fact, he is probably mostly responsible for the team posting an average pass rush.  They had 36 sacks and McCoy had 8.5 of them.  They also have Gholston and Smith returning who are capable players.

Really, they need another good defensive lineman, but they will have to make do with McCoy holding the line.

Linebackers

The linebacker crew should play decently with another elite member anchoring them.  Lavonte David is tremendous.  David excels at stopping the run, and has had over 100 tackles each of his three seasons.  He isn’t an elite pass-rusher, with only 1 sack, 4 hits, and 4 hurries, but is an excellent run stopper and solid in coverage.  Bruce Carter will join the Bucs as a free agent from the Cowboys.  There is potential there, but I wouldn’t expect great things.  He was the 40th pick with the Cowboys after his stock dropped due to a knee injury.  He had 5 interceptions last year, but hasn’t performed very well over all.  He will basically replace the mediocre Mason Foster.  Lansanah is another capable linebacker who had 3 interception with 61 tackles and 20 assists.  He really came out of nowhere and could be a great pickup for the Bucs.

Secondary

The secondary needs a lot of work, but at least they have a couple of capable cornerbacks.  Alterraun Verner and Sterling Moore both had decent seasons, but after that the production drops off.  Moore came over from the Patriots in the offseason and should help stop the bleeding.  The two cornerbacks were the only members of the secondary who posted above average seasons according to Pro Football Focus.  Jonathan Banks underwhelmed, but played in only his second season, so they can hope for improvement there.  McDougald seemed to settle into a role, but you really wouldn’t want him as your best safety, which he unfortunately is.  Again, I expect improvement from the Bucs secondary, which isn’t too difficult when you were in the bottom 5 in the league, but they won’t come close to leaping into the top half.

******

If you’re a Bucs fan, there is a lot to like as they work on their rebuild.

Even as someone who isn’t a true believer in Winston, they have a few star players, and some good role players.  I also don’t believe Winston will be a total bust, just that he won’t live up to his potential, especially as a rookie.  Regardless, the Bucs did everything they could through the draft to put him in a position to succeed.  They attempted to build the line and added a potential slot receiver.  They even added a pass blocking HB.  Their O-line shouldn’t get trampled over quite so badly, but they will need their rookies to step up quickly.  With a solid receiving corp, and surely improved QB play, deeper and hopefully healthier tight ends, and a little better O-line the offense should be improved.

The defense has a couple of elite players in Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, but the secondary will probably get worked over again.  Even still, Moore should help a bit in this area.

I see modest improvements all over the field for the Buccaneers, but wouldn’t expect them to get to .500.  They need another year of development from their players and another solid draft to boost their defense.  I predict a 6-10 season, with Winston showing flashes of brilliance, but looking lost more often than not.