NFC South Preview: New Orleans Saints

By Robert Knarr

The New Orleans Saints had a busy, entertaining, and sometimes puzzling offseason.

While reviewing all their moves I sometimes wondered if they were trying to best Chip Kelly for most unusual offseason.  But truly, nobody can be as crazy as Chip Kelly, and there is a method to their madness when all is said and done.  They made a couple of trades that subtracted high end weapons in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills from their team for draft picks, center Max Unger, and linebacker Dannell Ellerbe.  So, it seems they are rebuilding at first glance.  But the Saints are in a precarious position.

Drew Brees, easily their best player and the heart and soul of the offense, is 36 years old.  So one would think they would be trying to win now.  But, the team had big holes last year, especially on defense.  Their window for competing is closing, unless they can pull off a transition like the Green Bay Packers did with Favre and Rodgers.  Even the Colts, who went from Peyton to Luck, endured a horrific 2-14 season in between.  The Saints also need to be improving other facets of the team, which is a pretty difficult task.  With all those draft picks, they could’ve probably rebuilt enough of the defense and added a new receiver or tight end.  Thus, they could be in a better position than they were last season when they finished 7-9, when they almost made the playoffs in a bad division.

So, are the Saints building for the now before Brees starts to truly decline?  Are they building for the future, or something in between?  Let’s try to untangle this unusual and complicated offseason and project where the Saints are headed.

Quarterback

Drew Brees is a an elite quarterback, performing as one of the best in the game for about a decade.  However, some think his talent and production took a slide last year.  I disagree.  He finished the year with 4952 yards., 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.  While the interceptions are higher than you’d like, that is still elite QB play.  ProFootballFocus had him ranked 2nd on their rating of quarterbacks, and while you might not agree with that number, its hard to say he had a bad season.  He had an NFL standard QB rating of 97.0, good for sixth in the league.  It’s possible scouts and others see something in his play that signals a decline in his play, but I don’t see it.  There were rumblings that the Saints were concerned with Brees’ ability, so I won’t totally dismiss the idea.

They drafted Garrett Grayson in the third round out of Colorado State, who will attempt to learn under Brees for the time being.  He could be a replacement down the road and perhaps sooner if some think Brees is really beginning to lose it.  I don’t see him being a long term solution at quarterback, but that is also arguably the most difficult position to predict for prospects.  He will have plenty of time to learn and is capable of making deep throws, so he has a good ceiling.  However, the pick can be questioned and adds to the confusion of the offseason.  They really don’t need Grayson now, who may never be a consistent starting QB, and could’ve used the pick to fill other holes.  This is one of the picks where I think the Saints tried too hard to look to the future, when they should’ve added a wideout or defensive player. They are attempting to walk a tight rope between winning now and building for the future.  The pick might help down the road, but hurts a lot in the mean time.

I expect Brees’ talent level to remain high for the duration of his current contract, so I would’ve really liked to have seen the Saints sign someone else here. They were never able to add a wide receiver, and need all the help on defense they can get.  Unfortunately, Brees’ production is likely to slide at least a little bit, because he lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, his two best options to throw to.  On the other hand, adding Max Unger will be a great boost to their pass protection.  Brees has always been adept at spreading the ball around, and with a talented and diverse backfield I expect him to figure things out and still have a good season.

Wide Receivers

The Saints traded Kenny Stills for Dannell Ellerbe and a third round pick.  I’d be a bigger fan of this trade, if I didn’t feel as though they wasted their pick on Grayson.  In fact, drafting Grayson isn’t necessarily completely awful, but the Saints failed to draft a wide receiver at any point in the draft.  I understand trading away players like Stills and Graham for more picks, but if you’re trying to win now, while you still have an elite QB, then drafting a wide receiver should’ve been a priority.  Brandin Cooks was having a good rookie season until he got hurt.  His stature worries me a little, since he only stands 5’10”, and I’m not sure he’ll grab a lot of touchdowns.  He had 3 through 10 games, which isn’t great.  But he also had managed to gain 550 yards on 53 receptions.  He can clearly be effective, but probably shouldn’t be counted on as a #1 receiver yet.

The team still has Colston who has been consistent through his career.  But, his production has waned slightly in the last couple of years and will be 32 to start the season.  After that, the corps looks weak, and Jimmy Graham won’t be there to take the pressure off. Nick Toon has potential and size, even if he’s a bit lanky, to be a solid receiver.  He hasn’t done much since he’s been drafted though partially due to injury, so he’s pretty unknown.  Josh Morgan and Joe Morgan provide depth, but I wouldn’t count on them doing much.  Then, there are a few undrafted free agents who could surprise people, but again I don’t expect great numbers from anyone other than Cooks and perhaps a resurgence of Colston.  Brees is really going to have to work to get the best out of these receivers and be productive.  He’ll need to move the ball around and hope someone can emerge out of the depth.  Perhaps, Cooks is capable of taking that next step forward.  Other than questions on defense, this will be the area to watch for the Saints.  I believe in Brees’ ability to figure it out, but it won’t be easy.

Running Backs

While the Saints might be weak at wide reciever, they have a wealth of running back options, likely to drive fantasy owners crazy.  But in the real world, that depth, talent, and versatility will likely be a key for the Saints offense.  The team brings Ingram and Khiry Robinson back, and also added C.J. Spiller.

Ingram has developed into a solid running back gaining 964 yards on 226 attempts last year for an average of 4.3 yards per carry.  He’s not gonna blow anybody away, but with Robinson and Spiller providing big play ability and diversity, he is the Saints strong back capable of getting those yards up the middle, and touchdowns near the goal line.  Robinson is an intriguing back, who is well liked by advanced stats.  He ranked 9th among all running backs with an Elusive Rating of 80.7, according to Pro Football Focus.  For those that are unfamiliar with the stat, it attempts to isolate his performance independent of blocking.  It does this by examining missed forced tackles, carries and receptions, and yards after contact.  In other words, how hard was the running back to bring down.  He also averaged 4.8 yards per attempt.  Unfortunately, he missed a lot of the season, but could be a breakout candidate.

C.J. Spiller had a rough year dealing with injuries, but can be explosive.  In 2013 he finished with a breakaway percentage of 43.9, according to Pro Football Focus, which is the number of runs he had that went for more than 15 yards.  He had 11 of these types of runs good for 408 yards.  In 2012 he led all running backs in Elusive Rating and was fourth in Breakaway Percentage.  Spiller and Robinson are also capable of catching the ball as well, and I expect Brees to use them a lot more given the lack of talent at wide receiver.  Everything considered, the Saints should have a stout running game, and I expect all three running backs to be heavily involved in the offense.

Tight End

Replacing Jimmy Graham at tight end isn’t going to happen for the Saints this year.  They have Josh Hill who Payton seems to be reportedly very high on, but he isn’t going to be the same caliber player.  He was an undrafted free agent, and will look to seize the opportunity.  He will probably gain a lot of looks on offense, since their other receiving options aren’t good after Cooks and Colston.  He has good size at 6’5” and 250 lbs.  I expect him to be capable working alongside veteran Ben Watson.  He should perform decently, with a chance to break out considering the lack of options to throw to.

Offensive Line

The Saints offensive line struggled last year, but should be considerably better this year.  They gave up 30 sacks last season, which was tied with three other teams for 21st in the league.  The trade for Max Unger is a terrific place to begin plugging the holes in their line.  He missed some time last year, but by all accounts is a top center.  That alone will help the Saints tremendously, and is a big reason I really like that trade for the Saints.

As much as it hurts to lose Graham, they really needed that help, and getting a 1st round pick makes the trade a win for the Saints.  They drafted Andrus Peat to help out, but this was a little head-scratching as well.  They already had two good tackles in Strief and Armstead.  So, one of these players will have to move to guard, which doesn’t seem to be in the team’s immediate plans, or sit on the bench.  I would’ve loved to have seen the Saints take a wide receiver here or possibly a lineman or linebacker.  Regardless, Peat should be a good player.  The pick also illustrates the complex balancing act the Saints are trying to perform by building for the future while trying to compete.  The new additions to the line should help offset Brees’ lack of throwing options by providing him with more time.

Defensive Line

The Saints defense was atrocious last season, getting especially lit up in pass coverage.  The team ranked 31st in overall defense according to Pro Football Focus and also gave up the second most yards overall.  This was a big reason the Saints drafted heavily on defense.  They did alright in this facet of the draft, but could’ve done better.  They will be returning Cameron Jordan to the line, who is above average.  The Saints also bring back Hicks and Bunkley and will continue to be mediocre.  Drafting Tyler Davison out of Fresno St. in the fifth round looks like decent value.  A couple people projected him to go earlier and has a chance at being an NFL starter, but needs to work on some things.  I’ll beat a dead horse and say, I would’ve liked to have seen them use one of their earlier picks for the line, instead of on a player they won’t use much this season.  This defense had a lot of holes, and I think they expect their linebacker depth to bail them out.

Linebacker

The Saints turned over a large portion of their linebacker crew, with the exception of Haralson and Galette.  Galette ranked really highly, and produced 10 sacks, 13 hits, and 45 hurries.  He wasn’t as sharp against the run but is an elite pass rusher.  They brought Ellerbe over in the Stills trade.  He is getting older, but has a chance to be good again.  He had over 100 combined tackles in 2013, so maybe he can recapture some of that magic after missing pretty much the entire show last year.

Stephone Anthony went late in the 1st round as the pick they got from the Seahawks.  He performed well in the combine and should be a solid addition.  You’d like a little more upside and speed from a 1st round pick, but played well on a great defense at Clemson, and should help stop the run.  He should be able to step in immediately, but has a couple holes in his game.  Hau’oli Kikaha out of Washington will join the Saints after they got him with their second round pick.  He can be an elite pass rusher.  While not as good against the run, he was a good but risky pick.  He has had two torn ACL’s, so his ability to stay healthy is a question mark.  I like the combination of him and Anthony, as Kikaha has some great upside if he can stay healthy and improve against the run, while Anthony should be solid, with a shot at turning into a stud.  Davis Tull was drafted in the fifth round and will add some depth, but won’t be a starter.

After drafting three linebackers and bringing over Ellerbe, the Saints should be really deep, with a chance of getting great production, from their linebacker crew.

Secondary

While their linebacker group may be significantly improved, I wouldn’t expect great things from the secondary.

They brought over Brandon Browner in free agency from the Patriots.  Browner is big and physical, and something this team could really use.  Pro Football Focus has him rated as only average, but I disagree and think he will help a lot.  Other than that there aren’t many improvements.  They drafted P.J. Williams in the third round and Damian Swann in the fifth round.  Some think Williams will need to move to Safety.  He will bring a little more help to the Secondary, but is gonna need time to adjust and find his place.  Keenan Lewis and Jarius Byrd are good players, but the Saints need another corner and Safety in my opinion.  Maybe Williams ends up working out, but I wouldn’t count on it happening right away.

The Saints gave up the 25th most yards in the passing game, and Pro Football Focus had them ranked second to last in pass coverage,  They really needed to address this part of their game.  Surely they can’t be as bad as last season, but don’t expect the Saints to be in the top half of the league in pass coverage.  I feel like I said this before, the Saints could’ve done a lot better in this area of the draft, but bringing in Browner was a solid move.  Plus, he’s played for the last two Super Bowl champs, so surely the Saints will be raising that trophy above their heads come next February.

The Saints didn’t have a terrible offseason, but it could’ve been better.  They really got caught up trying to walk that tight rope between going all in now, and building for the future.  That was probably the correct path to walk, but their execution is questionable.  When the team traded Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, it signaled to some people, “fire sale”.  But actually, this strategy could’ve worked brilliantly, and it still might.  They replenished their line with a badly needed center, received a potentially solid linebacker, and added numerous picks.  Then, by signing Browner, their defense was on its way to being much better.  However, I really think they fumbled the draft.

It wasn’t terrible, but could’ve been the end of a stellar offseason and turnaround effort.  They draft a tackle with their first pick, when they didn’t need one immediately.  Sure, he will be valuable in a couple years as Strief ages, but that could’ve been addressed in the future.  They failed to pick up a wide receiver, and mostly only added depth for their defensive line and secondary.  Why draft a QB in the third round when you have such other pressing issues?  I still think they did well in rebuilding their linebacker crew, but failed in other areas.  They should’ve left Peat and Grayson on the table, and drafted a wideout and another defensive player.  They could’ve used a cornerback or lineman.  I think they failed to pick up high end players early in the draft as well.  I’m ok with Kikaha and Anthony, but think they could’ve done better.

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The Saints could’ve had a great team after this draft.  They are improved, and should compete for the playoffs, but only because of the weakness in the division. I see them finishing 9-7 and squeaking in as a wild card.