NFC South Preview: Atlanta Falcons – Part 2 – The Defense
Yesterday we previewed the Atlanta Falcons offense for 2015, so let’s now turn to the defense:
Defensive Line
The defense is the big problem for Atlanta, and it has been for some time. That’s a huge part of the reason the team brought in Dan Quinn, and used most of their picks on defensive players. Although they made great strides with their draft this year, there are still plenty of holes to fill via future drafts, trades, and/or free agents, before they become respectable. Their weaknesses are particularly evident on the defensive line. They struggled to get to the quarterback last year, but weren’t completely awful defending the run. In fact, they gave up the 21st most rushing yards, which is actually one of their better defensive stats. Pro Football Focus even had them ranked a little closer to average. Still, they need to improve in this area if they’re going to be contenders, especially the way their pass coverage projects.
The Falcons let Umenyiora go, but bring back Hageman, Jackson, Soliai, and Babineaux. Babineaux has been a good player who has spent his whole career with the Falcons. However, he’s entering his age 34 season, and may be getting pushed to the side in the near future. He certainly isn’t the player he used to be. The Falcons were fortunate and clever enough to draft Grady Jarrett out of Clemson with their 5th pick. He comes in at 304 lbs. Jarrett should play solid against the run, while also applying pressure to the quarterback. He was projected to go as early as the 2nd round, and somehow fell all the way to the fifth. I’ve seen a few people criticize his versatility and endurance, which may be why he dropped. He’s still great value for the fifth round. The Falcons made another tremendous pick here, as they seemed to throughout the draft this year. I can see him being a really good player, but probably not for another year or two, since there are a lot of parts to this line.
The Falcons also bring back Hageman, who was their second pick last year. He has tremendous upside, but is also seen as a strong bust candidate. I’m not sure what to make of him so far. He played ok in his first year as a rookie, but I need to see more of him. O’Brien Schofield comes over with Quinn from Seattle. He is a little further down the depth chart, but I could see him becoming a starter, due to his familiarity with Quinn and his system. Schofield would have to usurp Tyson Jackson, who has a five year contract, but disappointed in his first season. He’s going to be 29 this year and hasn’t shown much recently outside of his 2013 season. He has played well as recently as 2013 though, so it’s possible, just doubtful, he contributes. Biermann returns to provide some decent depth. The potential in this line lies in Hageman putting it together and Jarrett becoming a good player quickly. As I see it, the line will be average, while Garrett and Hageman work through their lumps, with good potential heading into 2016.
Linebackers
The linebacker situation was awful for the Falcons last year, and really crippled their defense. They weren’t effective in rushing the passer or in coverage. This projects to be a similar problem this year, but they have made some progress.
Vic Beasley
Vic Beasley, the top pick for the Falcons and eighth overall in the draft, should immediately provide help for the pass rush. He stands 6’3” and 246 lbs. He has incredible quickness off the edge, and could be great with a little more fire. He has been said to give up a little quickly, but with the right coaching, which I think Quinn will provide, he could be a beast rushing the quarterback. The rest of his game will need some work, but the pressure he’ll provide is something the Falcons sorely need. Beasley played in Clemson’s stout defense and will likely step in and be the best linebacker on the team shortly after making his debut. That speaks to both his ability and the lack of high end talent in the linebacker corps.
The team brought in a lot of reinforcements, but none of them are stars. Most of these players project to be average, but let’s see if there’s some hidden potential in the remaining linebackers. Brooks Reed is intriguing. He’s been good at stopping the run throughout his career. The Falcons gave him a five year contract worth 22 million dollars, so they must have some faith in him. He was ranked slightly above average last year according to Pro Football Focus, but near the bottom the year before. He has been injured a fair amount throughout his career, so there’s some risk there as well. It’s also been suggested that Quinn thinks he’ll be more effective by shifting to a 4-3 defense. Either way he projects to be a starter, and should play well against the run, but I don’t see a star here.
Justin Durant who played with Dallas last year and has graded out as average for the last couple years will join the team as well. He isn’t particularly young, so he is what he is at this point. He will likely start as well, providing mundane results, but not hurting the team. Worrilow returns as an inside linebacker. Probably, the most optimistic thing that can be said about him is he’s still young, entering his third season. He has been ranked poorly, and provided negative value each year, ranking as the second worst inside linebacker last year according to Pro Football Focus. Worrilow drags this group down a lot. The linebackers could be in ok shape, if they had a good replacement for him. But, when one of your starters is well below average, the others are mediocre, and the last is a rookie, I don’t see them performing even in the middle of the pack.
Secondary
We come to another spot of weakness for the Falcons, the secondary. They were possibly the worst in the NFL last year. They were also exposed due to a poor pass rush, which should be only slightly improved this year. They gave up the most pass yards, the most yards per attempt, and ranked 29th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. They did finish middle of the pack in interceptions and passing touchdowns given up. Still, it’s clear the Falcons were constantly getting torched through the air last year. In today’s NFL, passing dominates the game. Teams needs to be able to limit the damage.
The Falcons have a potentially elite cornerback in Desmond Trufant. In fact, he is probably the best defensive player they have. Drafted 22nd overall in 2013, Trufant has elite speed and quickness, running a 4.38 40 and a 3.85 shuffle. He isn’t the strongest defensive back, but plays exceptionally well in coverage. He could easily take the next step and be a top corner in the league next year. Unfortunately, the secondary gets pretty weak after Trufant.
Desmond Trufant – AP Photo
The rest of the secondary will probably be disappointing, but the Falcons do have an interesting player that they drafted in the second round, Jalen Collins. As has been the story when examining the Falcons draft, Collins was hailed as an excellent pick. He was considered one of if not the best cornerbacks in the draft. He has good speed and quickness, although he isn’t as fast or agile as Trufant. He has a little more height and power. He stands an inch taller than Trufant., but didn’t grade as well on his vertical leap. I see a little less potential here, but Collins should still work out as a good corner, which the Falcons desperately need. As with nearly all rookies, he needs work, but will likely end up as an excellent pairing with Trufant.
Phillip Adams was brought over in free agency, but will probably play behind Collins, Trufant, and Alford. He was a 7th round pick, and has bounced around since then. Alford will likely play slot and has been subpar so far. He was drafted in 2013 one round after Trufant. He only stands 5’10”, but possesses good speed. Pro Football Focus has him ranking poorly in his first two seasons. He has been disappointing, and needs to turn it around soon if he wants to keep starting. The safety’s need some work as well. The team drafted Akeem King in the 7th round, but he will likely only provide depth. As for the starters, Moore missed a lot of time last year, but has been serviceable throughout his career. Free safety is a bigger problem, with no real answers. Godfrey and Ishmael will attempt to man the position, but neither is likely to be of great help.
There are still a lot of holes in this defense. The secondary is going to struggle again, but should be a little better. There’s a lot of youth in the secondary, which is good for the future, but doesn’t bode as well for this year. I’d be shocked if they provide average defense. Similiary, the linebacker crew will be improved, but probably not decent still. By providing a better pass rush, the secondary shouldn’t have so much weight on their shoulders, so perhaps the additions the Falcons made provide exponential value. If so, then I could be wrong, and the defense could surprise. Realistically, they need another linebacker, free safety, and defensive lineman, and that is assuming Jarrett, Collings, and Beasley all work out well. If all those players end up being good, they will still only have two good cornerbacks, one lineman, and one linebacker, with the rest of the defense being average or worse. I just see a ton of average players, a few big holes and a few promising rookies. Unless, Quinn can work some magic, manage production well over the talent level of many of his starters, and simultaneously have his rookies make a seamless transition to the NFL, this defense is going to be bad again, and maybe awful. Maybe the rookies play well enough to keep them from sinking, but I can’t see the defense being a plus for the Falcons.
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The Falcons had a tremendous draft. Nearly all of their picks graded highly, and many were projected to go higher in the draft than where they were selected. They made a couple of decent free agent pickups in Brooks Reed, Tamme, Moeaki, and Schofield, but I still can’t see this team competing. There are a lot of young players, but pretty much all of them would have to reach near their potential this year for the defense to be good enough, or the offense to be elite. I don’t see Alford, Hageman, Collins, Beasley, Matthews, Coleman, Freeman, Hardy, and Jarret all being excellent this year. It’s going to be each players’ rookie or sophomore season, except Alford who has been bad so far. Without those players all excelling this year, the Falcons are going to have gaping holes throughout their defense, offensive line, and backfield. Aside from the rookies and a couple sophomores, the Falcons have an excellent, maybe elite quarterback, a top 10 wide receiver, a mediocre line, and one above average defender. There are some potentially good sophomores, but they are unknowns at this point along with the rookies.
Don’t get me wrong the youth is a positive, but it’s just asking too much for all these players to not only pan out, but play above average for the whole year. Instead, it’s likely that a few of these players do well and the team doesn’t have so many holes at the end of the season. Then, they will only need to only make a few adjustments next offseason to compete. The Falcons have a plenty of youth with great potential, and the defensive minded coach they’ve been missing, but need another year of development and another strong draft to be contenders. I envision another 6-10 year. It seems odd projecting them with the same record, but the division should be better as a whole next year making the competition more difficult, and I think they were lucky to win 6 games last year.