Time To Guarantee a Future for Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks

While Russell Wilson’s chances of ever actually playing in the MLB are not certain, the prospects of him getting a 100% guaranteed contract may be growing, and I’m talking about in the NFL.

Last summer I heard a radio host (pardon me for forgetting said host’s name) state that one of his bold predictions for 2015 was that Russell Wilson would become the first NFL player with a fully guaranteed contract. I found it interesting, but soon moved on and paid it the amount of respect typically owed to bold predictions — very little. However, since the Seattle Seahawks’ defeat in February to my beloved Patriots, the idea has been discussed so frequently that it actually seems possible. It’s unconventional, and like most unconventional ideas, many of us label it crazy or foolish. But, it isn’t foolish at all. In fact, if Seattle doesn’t do it this off season, they will likely regret it, as it may soon be the norm for NFL quarterbacks.

There is a ton of risk with a fully guaranteed contract, and it defies logic in a league where you can cut ties at a moments notice and where most players never see close to the full amount of their contracts. But consider this, 70% of the last ten Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were not in the top ten for cap hit amongst quarterbacks that season.

• 2014 – Tom Brady- 12th highest cap hit amongst quarterbacks
• 2013 – Russell Wilson- 53rd
• 2012 – Joe Flacco- 16th
• 2011 – Eli Manning- 5th
• 2010 – Aaron Rodgers- I could not find a ranking for this season no matter how I tried to uncover it, but since Rodgers cap hit was 6.5 million, based on all of the other years I analyzed, this would rank him outside the top ten for quarterbacks.
• 2009 – Drew Brees- 13th
• 2008 – Ben Roethlisberger- 13th
• 2007 – Eli Manning- 3rd
• 2006 – Peyton Manning- 5th
• 2005 – Ben Roethlisberger- 17th

USA Today Photo

It’s undeniable that apparently unless your name is Manning (Eli or Peyton), it’s pretty hard to win a Super Bowl with a top ten paid quarterback. If you need further proof, 3 of the 4 years preceding 2005, Tom Brady and the Patriot’s won while Brady was on his 6th round (pick #199) rookie contract. You need an elite quarterback in the NFL, but it’s also the ultimate team sport and you need pieces around him. After the Raven’s win, they gave Flacco a record breaking $20 million contract and now look at their defense. And look at the Patriots.  It was almost ten years in between elite cornerbacks — from Law to Revis, and coincidentally, it was a ten year Super Bowl drought.

Getty Images

So what’s the solution? Well, it’s pure economics. It’s the struggle between higher quality for lower value. And the breaking point in that struggle is where you win a Super Bowl. Guaranteed contracts.

The Seahawks are set up to be a dynasty if they retain Wilson for the long haul, but it needs to be cap friendly. My proposal? 6 years, $60 million and all guaranteed. There will be a lot of risk, and if Wilson blows out his knee and his career is over by year three then the contract is a failure (at least for the Seahawks). However, if he remains healthy and productive, the Seahawks would have the opportunity to secure all the needed pieces around him, remain an elite defense and win one or more Super Bowls.  And if that happens, then you will forever change the way quarterbacks are paid.

So what would I do?  I do it, and I don’t think twice about it. The facts support it. The time for fully guaranteed contracts is now.

By Ryan Whitfield