2019 Week 4 NFL Picks
By the Football Garbage Time StaffIf you followed last year, you won over 60% of your picks, and we aim to do even better this year.
And if you’ve been following us, you know that we here at Football Garbage Time have gone head to head against Wally, Will and Ray at Urban Sports Scene on our NFL Picks for the last 4 seasons. Why? Because they’re awesome competitors, they KNOW their sports, and, heck, they’re just good guys! This year we’ll have their picks up right HERE, so keep it tuned in, to both us and them, because we’ll be picking all season all long.
Without further to do, here we go:
Week 4 Games
Ha Kung Wong’s Picks
Ha Kung’s Thoughts:
Last year I ended up with a 66% record for the season, so that’s four years in a row with over a 60% pick rate. Plus, I had a 94% record on Locks of the Week. Don’t worry, I don’t plan on stopping now, as I’m still 3 for 3 on Locks!
So let’s see get to that Lock and Upset for Week 4…
Lock of the Week => Los Angeles Chargers (-16.0) over Miami Dolphins
I feel kinda bad picking on the lowly Dolphins. But not THAT bad. Playing eliminator pools this year is easy as you just pick who plays the Dolphins each week. This week it’s the Chargers’ turn to carve them up. On top of the fact that Philip Rivers is showing his usual terrific connection with Keenan Allen (who exploded last week with 3 TDs), the Chargers pass rush is legit and the Dolphins o-line is complete garbage, meaning Josh Rosen will be running for his life more than usual. Which is really hard thing to do. Lock ’em in and move on.
Upset of the Week => Carolina Panthers (+4.0) over Houston Texans
Yes, I do think the Texans are a good team. But I also know they have plenty of problems protecting Deshaun Watson, and the Panthers haven’t been half bad creating pressure. More importantly, in Kyle Allen I trust, as he looked amazing in Week 3 putting up a whopping 4 passing TDs. Along with Run CMC and his usual 110% workload, I see a recipe for Carolina success. It’s going to be close, but I think the Panthers ground game is the difference here.
Joanne Kong’s Picks
List of 0-3 teams coming into week 4:
- Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North)
- New York Jets (AFC East)
- Miami Dolphins (AFC East)
- Denver Broncos (AFC West)
- Washington Redskins (NFC East)
List of 3-0 teams coming into week 4:
- Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West)
- New England Patriots (AFC East)
- Buffalo Bills (AFC East)
- Los Angeles Rams (NFC West)
- San Francisco 49ers (NFC West)
- Dallas Cowboys (NFC East)
- Green Bay Packers (NFC North)
- New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Division rivals are both 3-0 entering week 4 of the NFL season. The Bills have surprised fans and the NFL alike. While Patriot fans probably don’t see their undefeated season being ruined by the Bills, football fans are eagerly awaiting to see if this dark horse can defeat this powerhouse of a team.
New England Patriots defense vs. Buffalo Bills Defense
The Patriots only allowed 3-points in the first two games of the regular season against the Pittsburgh Steelers and actually shutting out the Miami Dolphins. Both these teams are 0-3. Huh. In come the New York Jets in week 3, and the Patriots allowed the Jets to score 14-points, albeit on defense. The Jets are also 0-3. How did this happen? Perhaps Tom Brady really isn’t as good as we think, but the defense has been surprising.
Safety Devin McCourty has managed an interception in every game. LB Jamir Collins Sr. has had two interceptions and even returned one for a touchdown, adding 2.5 sacks to his stat chart for the season. CB Stephon Gilmore also had an interception against the Miami Dolphins. And, surprisingly, the Patriots are the only team that has not allowed an offensive touchdown this season.
New England’s defense has not allowed an offensive touchdown this season.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 25, 2019
Their stats might not compare to the Patriots, but the Bills defense is good. Whether they are good enough, though, will be put to the test on Sunday. The Bills have allowed the 5th fewest overall yards (899), the 9th fewest passing yards (211.7 yards per game), and the 8th fewest rushing yards (88 yards per game).
And the Bills defense have some play-makers of their own. CB Tre’Davious White has had two interceptions this season and safety Jordan Poyer and DE Trent Murphy both had an interception against the New York Giants.
According to ESPN, the Bills are No. 1 in the league allowing the fewest yards per drive (24.8), third best in limiting touchdowns per drive (16.8%), and No. 1 in forcing three-and-outs (36.2%).
Home Field Advantage – Buffalo Bills?
Everyone knows that the Patriots are hard to beat at home, but away games tend to be their kryptonite. The Bills will be the Patriots toughest competition thus far …yeah I said it. In 2018, the Patriots lost 5-games, which happen to all be away games.
On the other hand, in the last ten games, the Bills have won only 2 of 10 games against the Patriots, both at Gillette Stadium.
— Jim McBride (@globejimmcbride) September 25, 2019
The Patriots did see some trouble on offense against the Jets in week 3. With no Antonio Brown, who was released by the Patriots only after 11 days after signing him, and no Julian Edelman, leaving Sunday’s game in the second quarter with a chest injury, Tom Brady was left in the lurch, scoring only 10-points in the second half.
Source on Julian Edelman: “He’ll be good” … Another indication that the injury isn’t major and he hasn’t been ruled out for this week. https://t.co/n4a6hAX0BU
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 23, 2019
Although Edelman was at practice this week, it’s difficult to say whether he’ll be 100% on Sunday against the Bills. Regardless, the Bills defense will still need to contend with wideouts Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett, not to mention running backs James White, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead. The defense will need to play a near perfect game if they want to beat the Patriots.
Jets, Giants, Bengals…
Like the New England Patriots, the Bills have faced some of the worst teams in the league. The Patriots will be their toughest competition, but I guess you can say that about any team that plays the Patriots.
The Bill and the Patriots have played 117 games, and the Bills have won 43-73.
It’s an upset I’m wanting to see. The Bills beat the Patriots.
Ryan Whitfield’s Picks
Follow me on Twitter – @RyanWhitfieldNE
Scott King’s Picks
Tough week last week with in the late window but backup QBs are tough to predict. I like this weeks’ picks, but we’ll see. I also like the Vikings +2.5, follow me on Twitter for my status tracking against the spread.
Check out Ray’s thoughts also at the 40 minute mark of the most recent Urban Sports Scene Podcast!
— Wole USS (@UrbanSportScene) September 25, 2019
Check out Ray’s thoughts also at the 40 minute mark of the most recent Urban Sports Scene Podcast!
On a role and fighting to win the picks so far. Let’s stay hot and yes I am going to go with the Browns again at Baltimore. Browns defense did more than enough to win against the Rams and they have the speed and athleticism to contain Lamar Jackson’s running capabilities and the Chiefs defense showed the way to stop the Ravens passing attack.
Also like Jacksonville to win at Denver. Extra days off and the calming of the Jalen Ramsey storm (for now) and Gardner Minshew is growing in confidence. Now he has to go on the road and do it against an excellent defense and he will (with the help of some customary Joe Flacco turnovers).
And in the big game at the Superdome the Cowboys will get to 4-0 because even though Teddy Bridgewater is playing decently, he isn’t playing as well as Dak Prescott. And Dallas won’t lay the ball on the ground like the Seahawks did last week.
Eliminator pick: L.A. Rams
*Public pick percentages are from Yahoo Sports Pick ‘Em Users
In Week 4 pick ‘em is extremely skewed this week. Out of the first 13 games on the schedule, 11 see the public going with the favorite at an 80% rate and 8 of those are 90% or greater. Out of those first 11 games with the public going 80% or greater on the favorite, I only had the cajones to pick one upset, although I think there are a couple of teams that are vulnerable to being upset this week starting with tonight’s game. I think that the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are far closer in terms of talent then the public’s 91% would suggest. However, this seems like the perfect opportunity for Rodgers to have his first true Rodgers statline of the season. Philadelphia has been one of the worst against the pass this year allowing 293 yards through the air per contest. That’s just what Rodgers needs after seeing three straight teams that are in the top half of the league in that category this season.
I could see how some people might target the Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons game, as the Titans defense can keep them around in most games. However, I think desperation at home will set in for the Falcons who must realize that their division is as wide open as any right now with Drew Brees and Cam Newton on the sidelines.
Even with Daniel Jones set to start last week, I couldn’t force myself to pick the New York Giants because new quarterback or not the defense is just about the worst unit in the league. But I’m back on board! Danny Dimes baby! Giants get to .500 over a weak Redskin team.
I picked the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and Los Angeles Rams because all three have home-field advantage. However, I don’t think any of the three have a cakewalk. The Browns (@ Ravens) have to start looking better soon, or else they’ll go back to being the butt of every joke in the NFL. Kyle Allen and the Panthers (@ Texans) looked far more dangerous than when Cam was playing, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ LA Rams) can still put up points, meanwhile the Rams have been struggling on offense all year. So while the public has been going mostly 88% and up on the favorites, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were wrong on a few of these.
Let’s get to the two coinflip games. I took the Chicago Bears to beat the Minnesota Vikings in Chicago, that defense just looks too good to lose that many games especially at home. Minnesota wants to be a run first team, but what will happen when that option gets taken away? I took the Jacksonville Jaguars for the same reason. They appear to be back to being Sacksonville, and the Denver Broncos somehow don’t have a sack or a turnover yet this season.
Upset of the Week
Give me Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals pulling the win out against Russel Wilson and a Seattle Seahawk team that had trouble staying relevant against the Brees-less Saint’s in Seattle last week. The Seahawks do not look dangerous at all right now, and won’t have the 12th man to back them in Phoenix this week. Kyler Murray’s learning curve will continue to be steep, and he’ll get the win against a quarterback whom he is often compared to.
Week 3 Results
Check back next week for our Week 4 results and Week 5 picks!